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The question seemed simple. It was not.On Monday, a group of ESPN college football writers was assembled to shoot the ESPN The Magazine College Football Preview special at ESPNU, and the producer gave us a heads up as to what one of the main questions would be.
What's the biggest September game outside of Michigan versus Alabama?
The truth is, there are a ton. Wolverines-Tide on Sept. 1 has the potential to still be creating BCS waves all the way into January, but it isn't the only one. Plus, there are others that are giant on strictly a regional scale, but giant nonetheless.
What are the top 10 September matchups in terms of BCS impact? We've listed them here, along with game projections from Brian Fremeau of Football Outsiders (based on
his FEI formula), week-by-week.
WEEK 1
[h=3]
Clemson Tigers vs.
Auburn Tigers (Atlanta), Sept. 1[/h]
Win odds for Clemson: 51.8 percentFor the record, this was my answer on the ESPNU show. Sort of. I actually combined this with the Tennessee-NC State matchup that takes place on the same field the night before, all part of an ACC versus SEC opening weekend doubleheader. But while the Vols and Pack will be playing for season-saving stakes (and perhaps head coach-saving stakes), the Tigers and Tigers will be fighting to see who could potentially start an early push as an outside national title contender.
Is Clemson truly past its Orange Bowl embarrassment? Is Auburn a legit spoiler in the SEC West? A win here would at the very least be a very nice addition to one's resume when applying for BCS bowl berth consideration three months later (especially in Clemson's case, given the relative weakness of the ACC). As Fremeau's projection shows, this should be a close one.
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Michigan Wolverines vs.
Alabama Crimson Tide (Arlington, Tex.), Sept. 1[/h]
Win odds for Alabama: 81.1 percentThis one's pretty simple. And pretty huge. The Tide is in everyone's preseason top three. The Wolverines are a little further down, but still in nearly everyone's top 10. Both may have bigger games down the road -- Bama versus the SEC West, and Michigan has road trips to South Bend, Lincoln and Columbus. But those games won't matter nearly as much if paired with a loss in this one.
It's plausible that Michigan could bounce back from a defeat to re-emerge in the BCS and national title hunts -- but it would be tougher for Bama, staring down a challenging SEC slate (road trips to Arkansas, LSU).
WEEK 2
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Georgia Bulldogs at
Missouri Tigers, Sept. 8[/h]
Win odds for UGA: 61.8 percentThe Bulldogs are never going to bridge the gap between Athens and the SEC West until they can get through a September unscathed. The good news is that they don't play LSU, Alabama or Arkansas this season unless they see one of them in Atlanta in December. The bad news is that they once again have to deal with a tough team from Columbia early in the season. Only this time it's SEC newbie Mizzou instead of South Carolina, who has been moved to Oct. 6.
UGA's biggest question mark looks to be the secondary, especially after a slew of suspension-creating offseason incidents. Tigers QB
James Franklin is the kind of guy who can make those MIAs hurt.
WEEK 3
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USC Trojans at
Stanford Cardinal, Sept. 15[/h]
Win odds for Stanford: 50.8 percent
Jason O. Watson/US PresswireA road trip to face Stepfan Taylor and Stanford could give USC trouble.
It's a Trojans tradition to stockpile talent, and they have managed to continue to do so even with NCAA-forced scholarship restrictions. Unfortunately it is also a Trojans tradition to lose a game among their first five that they shouldn't. See: Arizona State '11, Washington '09-'10, Oregon State '08, Stanford '07.
It's not even mid-August, and we're already saying that USC's biggest BCS task will be to beat Oregon on Nov. 3 and then again a few weeks later. But the stretch that begins here -- at Stanford, versus California, at Utah, at Washington -- can't be ignored. Neither can Fremeau's projection: He has Stanford as the slight favorite. As for the Cardinal, their concerns lie on defense, as a suspect pass D could be their undoing against
Matt Barkley and the USC offense.
[h=3]Alabama Crimson Tide at
Arkansas Razorbacks, Sept. 15[/h]
Win odds for Alabama: 67.3 percentEven if Alabama loses to Michigan two weeks earlier, this will the first tone-setter for the bunkhouse stampede that is the SEC West. If Arkansas gets throttled at home, the Hogs' honeymoon with John L. Smith will be over before it even started. But if the Razorbacks beat the odds and pick up the win, it could be the first domino in a wild SEC West race.
WEEK 4
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LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers, Sept. 22[/h]
Win odds for LSU: 69.2 percentSEC West cage match, round 2. Auburn's two new coordinators will have had three warm-ups in Clemson, Mississippi State and Louisiana-Monroe before hosting LSU and Arkansas back-to-back. LSU won't be quite so battled-hardened with home games against North Texas, Washington and Idaho. The first road trip is always interesting, especially when it's down to the Plains and particularly when your QB,
Zach Mettenberger, has attempted all of 11 FBS passes entering the season and will still be getting used to holding the reins. Still, the numbers like LSU.
WEEK 5
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Texas Longhorns at
Oklahoma State Cowboys, Sept. 29[/h]
Win odds for Oklahoma State: 66.5 percentThe Big 12 doesn't really get ripping until October, but this one will be a big tell as to who is most likely to have something for consensus preseason top-5 pick Oklahoma. The Longhorn QBs figure to have trouble with OSU's turnover creation factory of a secondary, while the Cowboys are replacing Brandon Weeden with true freshman
Wes Lunt. If nothing else, this might be the only genuine defensive struggle played in the conference all season.
If OU is indeed the toast of the Big 12, it could very well be the winner of this one that winds up in BCS at-large consideration.
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Wisconsin Badgers at
Nebraska Cornhuskers, Sept. 29[/h]
Win odds for Wisconsin: 51.2 percentThere should be plenty of hand-offs in this one, with grinders
Montee Ball and
Rex Burkhead leading the way. If Wisconsin is going to make a run to the Big Ten title game (it's the preseason pick to win the Leaders Division), it can't stumble in Lincoln. If Husker Nation is finally going to earn the national respect it so openly craves, then it has to win this one. A victory would likely put Nebraska solidly into the top 10 for its trip to Columbus the following weekend.
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Florida State Seminoles at
South Florida Bulls, Sept. 29[/h]
Win odds for FSU: 59.4 percentSpeaking of national respect, the Seminoles keep receiving piles of preseason love -- they are seventh in both the coaches' poll and ESPN Power Rankings -- but yet always find some way to fumble it away. FSU's visit to South Florida has "trap game" written all over it, sandwiched among three ACC Atlantic Division games with Wake Forest, Clemson, and NC State, all of whom typically give the Noles fits.
Meanwhile, you can say what you want about the Big East, but if the Bulls win this game (as they did at Tallahassee in '09), then their Oct. 20 game at Louisville could be a matchup of top-15 teams with a BCS berth on the line.
ALL OF THE ABOVE
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Boise State Broncos at
Michigan State Spartans, Aug. 31[/h]
Win odds for MSU: 62.9 percent[h=3]
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan State, Sept. 15[/h]
Win odds for ND: 51.1 percent[h=3]
Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State, Sept. 29[/h]
Win odds for OSU: 63.2 percentThese games are lumped together because they will all be played in the same place -- East Lansing -- and all represent a giant test for the overhauled teams making the trip. Boise State begins the post-Kellen era versus the Spartans. Notre Dame will be in crucial week three of crucial year three of the Brian Kelly era. Ohio State will be facing its first real test in its fifth week of Urban Ball.
If Sparty gets out of this month undefeated, it's going to be awfully hard not to move them way up from their preseason perch (hovering around 15th in most polls and magazines).