When talking about the potential of a new format to go mainstream, we have to see the differences between an early adopter and mainstream consumer.
The former group (best to be identified as those posting on hidef forums) not only knows the audio/video codecs used, connection between bitrate and picture quality, specs of the different players on the market, how to connect the player to the display device, what AVR to use, what HDMI and HDCP means, etc., but more importantly - puts a high value on the final result.
The latter - mainstream consumer - not only doesn't know this, but never will. It has to be cheap, simple and shockingly better. At the moment it is expensive, cumbersome and "better" is a very subjective factor.
It is very easy to escalate the consumer confusion using things like upconverting DVD players and such.
Therefore, I think Sony/BDA can't afford not have the HD DVD heavyweights on their side.
And that won't happen by itself - somebody would have to pay for this to happen.
Diogen.