Predictions on Voom subscriber numbers

[gutter]

What was the loss figure for 3Q 2004 per customer?

JL

Now that is a meaningless statistic. The Value of a new sub is prorated out over many years. For cable it is about $4500 per sub and for a satellite it is now at around $1500. But you and I have debated that before. The lost per sub in a given quarter doesn't add up to anything. Loss per sub per install might in the short term but over the life of the sub. Taht is why DIRECT continues to loose money no matter how many thousands of new installs they get.

 

[hbk409]

For cable it is about $4500 per sub and for a satellite it is now at around $1500. get.

that depends on the cable company cablevision subs are supposed to be valued at between $4-4500 per sub, were as time warner and comcast paid i believe close to $3600 per sub when they offered to buy adelphia. most anyalast think it was to high as that is the normal rate for comcast were since adelphia was in the red and has a lot of problems with there system being outdated it should have been less probably around the $2-2500

 

[gutter]

HBK409 thanks for the correction and adding to my knowlege base. At least you have facts.

 

[DarrellP]

isnt funny how direct losses 283m in one quarter no one says throw in the towel for them, voom a startup losses 75M in quarter and everyones putting them 6ft under

Let's see: $238 M divided by 14 million=$17/sub for D*.
$75 M divided by 26,000=$2884/sub for Voom.

 

[hbk409]

Let's see: $238 M divided by 14 million=$17/sub for D*.
$75 M divided by 26,000=$2884/sub for Voom.

yes but D* has been in the game alot longer then voom, so they(voom) had to spend alot more in advertising to get their name out. they might not have done that great of a job considering most people have never heard of voom or thought they could only use it with an hdtv.

 

[mdonnelly]

yes but D* has been in the game alot longer then voom, so they(voom) had to spend alot more in advertising to get their name out. they might not have done that great of a job considering most people have never heard of voom or thought they could only use it with an hdtv.

If they stopped advertising, they would still be losing lots of money. I suspect that the main cost for V* is programming (original and purchased) and overhead (satellites, uplink facilities, management, etc.).

 

[VoomMR]

Voom is supposed to be approaching 50,000....And Voom is gaining more customers than it used to....Sales goal is 15% instead of the 10% it was before the $1 promotion.

 

[James Long]

Voom is supposed to be approaching 50,000....And Voom is gaining more customers than it used to....Sales goal is 15% instead of the 10% it was before the $1 promotion.

Results through December 30th will be released on the 23rd. It would have to be the best quarter turnaround ever to have gone from 26k to 50k. (And if they pulled that off, why are they selling?)

Real numbers soon. Don't bet the farm.

JL

 

[jagouar]

the new numbers wont include ANY $1 installed deals.... Alot of subs signed up under the $1 installed deal. Wouldnt suprise me one bit to see numbers around 50k.

 

[James Long]

And, as noted in another thread, it doesn't matter what number V* announces. Voom supporters will claim that it has doubled since December 30th.

JL

 

[gutter]

No. 2.5 times more.

 

[Conjuror]

I say 15,000, not more.

 

[bryan27]

Here's some food for thought and a little twist.

Last I heard Sky Angel had 80,000 subs, but it is probably more like 125,000 now. Granted they have little overhead, they don't have to pay for uplink, satellite maintainence, all the channels give them the programming free etc... they still have to pay for CSRs and a billing department. IMHO I think VOOM could have saved money by using fewer CSRs. 3 call centers for 26,000 subs is a bit much.

Anyway, thinking about Sky Angel and their ability to survive with around 125,000 subs and about $1.4 million in revinue a year. How many VOOM subs will it take to keep VOOM at the break even point using their current uplink facility, a level of staff sufficient for the number of subscribers (no over staffing), renting satellite space on AMC-6, and other operating expenses?

My guess is 250,000 with $19,850,000 in revinue.

This is provided that 50% take the VOOM package and 50% take the VA VA VOOM package. I know that not everyone rents their receiver, not everyone has more than 2 receivers, etc... so I calculated all 250,000 with the $9.50 rental and nothing else which would make up for more than one receiver and those owning receivers.

I know $19 mill isn't a huge amount, but remember the expense of the operation is going to be lower than today's expenses since VOOM will no longer need the continuous staff for satellite maintainence. As I said it is a guesstimate

 

[Vicki]

When I read this earlier this evening...I started...

Voom is supposed to be approaching 50,000....And Voom is gaining more customers than it used to....Sales goal is 15% instead of the 10% it was before the $1 promotion.

...to ask if this was just your opinion, or whether you had inside information, or if you had a souce link. When I noticed you were just a member since this month and this was only your 4th post, I figured it might be just an exuberant opinion, like most of mine are!

and decided to pass by...knowing that if there was a source...someone else would post it soon. And if you had inside information, you wouldn't be likely to admit it! If you're a Voomer, I hope you're enjoying it, and if you're not a Voomer yet, I hope you will be soon!

the new numbers wont include ANY $1 installed deals.... Alot of subs signed up under the $1 installed deal. Wouldnt suprise me one bit to see numbers around 50k.

My sentiments exactly...opinion only for me, of course!

Results through December 30th will be released on the 23rd. It would have to be the best quarter turnaround ever to have gone from 26k to 50k. (And if they pulled that off, why are they selling?)

Real numbers soon. Don't bet the farm.

And, as noted in another thread, it doesn't matter what number V* announces. Voom supporters will claim that it has doubled since December 30th.

No. 2.5 times more.

I hope you're right!! Please...level with me (I promise I won't tell anyone else!)...You got inside info? Paul Harvey called?? What???? Tell me!!

I say 15,000, not more.

Come on, you can level with me, too,... and I promise my lips would be zipped!

 

[gutter]

Truthfully, I have no idea what the numbers look like. Here in my part of PA, More VOOm being installed my my area of PA. We only have one HD OTA channel so VOOM is highly looked for by anyone buying a new HD or HD ready set.

 

[Bruce]

Last I heard Sky Angel had 80,000 subs, but it is probably more like 125,000 now. Granted they have little overhead, they don't have to pay for uplink, satellite maintainence, all the channels give them the programming free etc... they still have to pay for CSRs and a billing department.

Anyway, thinking about Sky Angel and their ability to survive with around 125,000 subs and about $1.4 million in revinue a year. How many VOOM subs will it take to keep VOOM at the break even point using their current uplink facility, a level of staff sufficient for the number of subscribers (no over staffing), renting satellite space on AMC-6, and other operating expenses?

Sky-Angel makes a lot more then $1.4 million a year, thats just what subs pay, a lot of those channels pay to be on their system and we all know why, donations, think of Home Shopping Channels but replace it with Ministry Channels.

 

[James Long]

SkyAngel

Last I heard Sky Angel had 80,000 subs, but it is probably more like 125,000 now.

I wonder why they don't announce their number of subscribers. Usually when companies won't tell you how well business is going it isn't going well - at least that's the impression not saying gives.

Granted they have little overhead, they don't have to pay for uplink, satellite maintainence, all the channels give them the programming free etc... they still have to pay for CSRs and a billing department.

I don't believe the use of E3 is entirely cashless. But it is possible.

Sky-Angel makes a lot more then $1.4 million a year, thats just what subs pay, a lot of those channels pay to be on their system and we all know why, donations, think of Home Shopping Channels but replace it with Ministry Channels.

The only payment for being on SkyAngel is promoting SkyAngel service. Sometimes that can be a high price and SkyAngel has had disputes with services in the past claiming they were not getting enough promotion. But SkyAngel clearly states that there is no charge to the program providers and the cost of service is covered by subscribers and donations.

SkyAngel does seem to be doing well enough to pay lawyers to sue other companies - but not well enough to complete their own satellite and uplink center. E3 won't last forever and their carriage deal with E3 expires with that satellite.

And now back to VOOM!

JL

 

[James Long]

No. 2.5 times more.

We will get a clue on Wednesday. If VOOM doubled subscribers (26k to 52k) in the fourth Quarter and Cablevision still wanted to sell them off then I will believe it possible that further mass increases occurred in January. But if VOOM ended the year with less than 30k (slow growth) or less than 26k (further loss of subscribers) a miracle turn around in January would be harder to believe. (Of course, the more VOOM dropped before Dec 31st the less subscribers they would NEED to reach 2.5x Dec 31st. eg: if they dropped to 20k they would need 50k to be at 2.5x .)

It is possible that they doubled subscribers in the last quarter and that still wasn't good enough for James D and the Cablevision board. That's where seing real numbers on Wednesday will help. Cablevision has poured a lot of money in to VOOM to see 39% of their subscribers leave or go 90 days past due before Sep 30th. If their 4th quarter turns out to be as bad as the third it would explain why Cablevision is selling assets more than a family squabble or lack of vision.

JL

 

[Walter L.]

justalurker:
Relax!!! We'll know tomorrow.

 

[James Long]

justalurker:
Relax!!! We'll know tomorrow.

I am relaxed ... I posted those messages on Saturday.

But I do expect the spinners to claim 2-3x whatever number is announced, even if the number announced tomorrow is under 20k.

JL