Predictions on Voom subscriber numbers

[gutter]

I don't remember from the last announcement but will it be the subscriber number as of December 31 and pending installs of that date?

 

[jnardone]

I think VOOM only has the ability to perform about 5000 installs per month or things start to back up. At that rate, and with an improved churn rate of 20% then 35,000 would be pretty much the maximum possible number of subscribers.

I wish people would stop saying that VOOM might "double" its subscribers in one quarter if the number comes in at 50K. Do they honestly think that this will mean that VOOM will be at 100K subscribers in another 3 months?

The issue that should debated is whether or not VOOM can survive with a net increase of 10,000 subscribers per quarter or even at an increase of 25,000 subscribers per quarter.

 

[James Long]

I don't remember from the last announcement but will it be the subscriber number as of December 31 and pending installs of that date?

It was just a customer count - no breakdown between installed or uninstalled. (But the comments about September being a month of loss wre included.)

The issue that should debated is whether or not VOOM can survive with a net increase of 10,000 subscribers per quarter or even at an increase of 25,000 subscribers per quarter.

I'm ready to do that tomorrow after the numbers are released.

JL

 

[jnardone]

I'm ready to do that tomorrow after the numbers are released.

JL

No subscriber numbers but VOOM only had revenue of $5,314,00.00 for the quarter.

If you divide this by the 26,000 existing subscribers (as there were no free programming offers going on for anyone who was already subscribed at the end of last quarter) you get $68.12 per sub per month. I think this is lower than VOOM's previous average subscription so that would mean there had to be a net DECREASE in subscribers over the quarter.

Unless there is a different way of figuring this out.

 

[hbk409]

its beginning to be like the tootsie pop commercials "the world may never know"

 

[Threv]

No subscriber numbers but VOOM only had revenue of $5,314,00.00 for the quarter.

If you divide this by the 26,000 existing subscribers (as there were no free programming offers going on for anyone who was already subscribed at the end of last quarter) you get $68.12 per sub per month. I think this is lower than VOOM's previous average subscription so that would mean there had to be a net DECREASE in subscribers over the quarter.

Unless there is a different way of figuring this out.

68.12 Funny that is exactly the amount of my bill (after taxes and such)

 

[rmunson2]

from Cablevision's 3rd quarter 10-Q they reported a net revenue (VOOM) of $5.9M with 26000 subscribers, therefore $5.3M in fourth quarter revenue probably means a net decrease in subscribers.

 

[zombie]

from Cablevision's 3rd quarter 10-Q they reported a net revenue (VOOM) of $5.9M with 26000 subscribers, therefore $5.3M in fourth quarter revenue probably means a net decrease in subscribers.

You need to figure in the revenue they are not seeing from the sale of the receivers. How long have they been offering rentals, how long has the $1 install been going on. These could be reported either as losses or taken off the revenue numbers. My guess is that they are not being added to revenue, since normally they would have been (in the case of selling a receiver). Plus I'm sure they were making some money off the top for installs.

Unless you have all the numbers everything is mere speculation. I would doubt their subscriber count went down, but again thats just speculation.

 

[James Long]

Unless there is a different way of figuring this out.

The 10-K is stull due out today. That's the BEST way.

JL

 

[Peter Parker]

I would be very surprised tos ee sub numbers in the 10K if they were not in the press release. I also don't see why it would be due today.

 

[James Long]

I would be very surprised tos ee sub numbers in the 10K if they were not in the press release. I also don't see why it would be due today.

Lets just say "expected today". The quarterly reports and conference calls usually are announced at the same time.

JL

 

[Peter Parker]

No. The report you speak of is due 60 days after the end of the period. It is not necessarily released at thae same time as a conference call. And a 10 K is not a quarterly report it si an annual reprt to the SEC. !0 Qs are filed quarterly.

 

[Walter L.]

No. The report you speak of is due 60 days after the end of the period. It is not necessarily released at thae same time as a conference call. anda 10 K is not a quarterly report.

In other words, by the time that the report is out, the number of subs is out-of-date anyway

 

[Peter Parker]

Well no. I actually said that I don't understand why anytone thinks it will be in the report.

 

[Walter L.]

I personally don't care about knowing subs numbers from VOOM. Just give me the HDDVR and the new HD channels

 

[James Long]

Well no. I actually said that I don't understand why anytone thinks it will be in the report.

Because it was in the last one? And that was a 10-Q as well.

Cablevision's last 10-Q was released five weeks after the end of the quarter. This one is a little late by that standard. Lighten up and wait with the rest of us.

JL

 

[MarcelV]

Because it was in the last one? And that was a 10-Q as well.

I have to agree with Geronimo this time. There is no value for the stockholder in teh number of subscribers now Cablevision made the decision to sell the assets. No future growth (positive or negative) will affect teh numbers of Cablevision. Only the sale of the assets will be.
I was surprised myself, anyone thought the numbers would be announced. It would have been nice to know, but is no longer needed for CVC by discontinuing Voom. Oh, and before I get the whole world on top of me, I am not saying Voom is discontinued, just that CVC no longer financially will support Voom DBS after sale of assets.

 

[bryan27]

from Cablevision's 3rd quarter 10-Q they reported a net revenue (VOOM) of $5.9M with 26000 subscribers, therefore $5.3M in fourth quarter revenue probably means a net decrease in subscribers.

Not necessarily. It could indicate there was a good subscriber gain, but that new subs are taking the VOOM package and not Va Va VOOM and many with Va Va VOOM have droped down to VOOM.

Although most on this board aren't typical subscribers a poll on how many have VOOM and how many have Va Va VOOM could roughly indicate how many system-wide have each package or VOOM with 1 movie add on.

 

[Peter Parker]

There is usually more of a lag time in reporting end of year data on a 10K vs end of quarter data on a 10Q. What was announced today was end of year data and legally the comapny has 60 days from the end of the year to file a 10K. A 10Q has to be filed within 35 days.

The filing does nor nesessarily happen when the press release is made.

It is true that sub numbers were mentiuned in the last 10Q, But then again they were in the last conference call and accompanying press release. It is not a legal requirement to release that. All i said was that if it has not been announced already there is no reason to believe that it will be in the 10K when it is released.

As for lightening up my shorts are not in a knot. I have not indicated any impatience on this. I just pointed out that your assumption about what has to be disclossed is faulty.

 

[James Long]

There is usually more of a lag time in reporting end of year data ona 10K vs end of quarter data on a 10 Q.

What was announced today was end of year data and legally the comapny has 60 days from the end of the year to filea 10K.

Then they blew it last year by filing on March 15th. You gonna fine them?

I just pointed out that your assumption about what has to be disclossed is faulty.

And I note that you waited until after the conference call and weeks of discussion to make such a prediction.

JL
PS: Lay off the booze or the Internet - please!