Yep, the Suger Bowl will take the loser of Alabama-Florida. Either team, even with a loss in the SECCG is a great match for the Sugar Bowl. And there is NO way that the Sugar Bowl won't take an SEC team, especially one that will still be in the top 10.
Out of the 10 bids, it'll be:
MNC - Big 12 & SEC
Rose - Pac 10 & Big 10
Fiesta - Big 12 & Pac 10 (if Oregon St is in the Rose) or Utah/Boise St./Big 10 (if USC is in the Rose)
Sugar - SEC & Utah/Boise St.
Orange - ACC & Big East
Ohio St's only hope to get in a BCS game is to win the big 10 or hope that Oregon St. does not win the Pac 10 and that either Utah or Boise St. loses.
The Fiesa Bowl might take Utah over Ohio St., due to unfeated status and Utah is in closer proximity.
The Sugar Bowl on the other hand will take an undefeated Utah or Boise St. over Ohio St., and the Sugar Bowl is first and foremost an SEC game, and it looks good to have the SEC team beat up an undefeated team, as opposed to Ohio St. for a 3rd year in a row. And the Sugar Bowl doesn't care if Ohio St. travels better than the other teams, because either Florida or Alabama will fill the Super Dome easily (again, the Sugar Bowl has always been first and foremost an SEC bowl game).
While is almost a guarantee that the Bama/Florida loser ends up in the Sugar and the Rose Bowl will take the traditional Pac-10/Big Ten matchup unless something screwy happens. One other guarantee is that Oklahoma will not play in the Fiesta. That would make 3 years straight and both sides will be open to a shift, likely the Orange which would give them a sub-regional balance.
At this point to me it appears this way:
NCG: SEC(Bama) vs. Big XII (Texas Tech)
Rose: Pac 10(Oregon St.) vs. Big Ten (Penn State)
Fiesta: Big XII (Texas) vs. Open (USC)
Sugar: SEC (Florida) vs. Big East (Cincinnati)
Orange: ACC (Miami) vs. Open (Utah)