NBA owners are going to spend the next weeks and perhaps months telling you how little pro basketball players are worth; then, once they get a deal, be faced with the task of trying to build 'em back up again for the purpose of public consumption.
And there's always the complex and even more divisive element of race. Both the NFL and NBA are predominantly black. But the NFL has never been perceived as a "black league" because it has white megastars in players such as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and coaches such as Bill Belichick. The NBA, on the other hand, has been perceived exactly as a black league for 30 years, even when it featured the likes of Larry Bird and Bill Walton. A championship team led by a blond, blue-eyed German, Dirk Nowitzki, isn't the same as having an iconic white American superstar on the level of Bird or Jerry West. Nor is a coach in the mold of Phil Jackson or Pat Riley.
And while every generation moves further away from stereotypes, more quickly in sports than just about any other industry, the fact is that NBA players with their guaranteed contracts and lavish lifestyles are the objects of derision much more often than their helmeted and more anonymous peers in the NFL -- who, except for those quarterbacks, make quite a bit less. And besides, people of any race and nationality more closely identify with people who look like them.
Even so, the NBA has always struggled with perception issues; a second work stoppage in 12 years, particularly if it's another long one, isn't going to help. And unlike in 1999 -- when the country was in a boom cycle during which the prevailing theme to everyday life was that everybody should "get paid" -- getting paid now, if it takes a public fight to do it, will seem mostly distasteful.
While owners and players alike surely feel they're not going to let public sentiment dictate their position, and perhaps rightfully so, it's hard to imagine that many people have the stomach for the ins and outs of this fight, especially not in the days after President Obama called the economic state of affairs "an emergency." We're talking, remember, about "middle class" people who, if they can still afford to, like to attend NBA games and buy stars' jerseys for their kids. They couldn't possibly be in the mood for hearing about salary caps and luxury taxes and the unacceptability of "settling for" a 50-50 split.
A nation riding on an economic rocket ship in 1999 might let it slide without much resentment, but it's hard to imagine any of this will sit well on the brink of another recession, three years removed from the last one.
The bet here is that owners and players will be shaken out of their complacency when they face an angry public that not only doesn't demand the return of pro basketball but also tells both parties, To hell with your product. That's the risk of this disregard for the economic plight of everyday folk who can no longer afford their ticket prices.
