High Def Disc unit sales - The Digital Bits

[CochiseGuy]

But don't you find it a bit telling when you see that 300 in BD is selling about twice as many as the HD-DVD equivalent.

In the first week of release of '300', quite a bit was made out of that the BD version outsold HD DVD 'almost 2 to 1'. This week 300 was the top selling BD - at 25.47 of Knocked Up's sales. The HD DVD 300 had 14.64 of KU. Accordingly, 300 HD DVD were 57.5% of BD - the HD DVD version is actually moving up in its sale ratio to the BD version.

Also, We Are Marshall is in the top 10 in BD, but no HD-DVD. Its those numbers that will really determine how this format war is moving.

No - that's just means Blu-ray owners are more likely to be football fans than HD DVD owners.

Just kidding - actually last week, the 1st week of release for We Are Marshall, the Blu-ray was outsold by the HD DVD version, so, some evening up in the sales mix.

NPD Group claims Best Buy (!?) is the biggest hidef discs seller... by a lot
Best Buy named leading high-def retailer - 10/5/2007 - Video Business

Not clear how they got hold of WalMart sales, but if true this boosts the representativeness of published NPD Group data.

Diogen.

Yes, interesting they got some Wal-Mart numbers. But if HD Media sales are indeed slow, one has to look no further than "Best" Buy being far & away the #1 seller. They are so over priced it's sad. I've bought over 80 HD discs - 1 at Wal-Mart, 1 at Best Buy, and 78 from Amazon, Warner Home Video and eBay.

 

[haertig]

With the low volume of ALL hi-def media sales, isn't looking at these numbers like looking at the first three voters in a presidential election and trying to predict the eventual winner based on that "two to one" lead?

It's not the enthusiasts or the early adopters that will decide a winner, it's the masses. And the masses haven't even noticed yet.

Besides, 73% of all statistics are wrong, 62% of the population understands that, the remaining 38% being split 42/58 on the issue, +/- 14%.

 

[navychop]

Well, I'll be -er, "gosh darned." I've always thought Amazon was easily #1. Certainly, Best Buy IS overpriced.

haertig: Well, we are all welcome to our own opinions. But I daresay the presidential analogy is not a good one. The competition won't last that long. It'll be over before the masses step in. In part, because the masses won't step in until it's over.

 

[navychop]

From Home Media Magazine:

Software units sales ratios as of 10/7/07:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 68.......HD-DVD 32
YTD:....................Blu-ray 66.......HD-DVD 34
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 61.......HD-DVD 39

Normalized to make comparison with previous postings easier:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 47.1
YTD:....................Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 51.5
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 63.9

 

[ONUOsFan]

Well, I'll be -er, "gosh darned." I've always thought Amazon was easily #1. Certainly, Best Buy IS overpriced.

haertig: Well, we are all welcome to our own opinions. But I daresay the presidential analogy is not a good one. The competition won't last that long. It'll be over before the masses step in. In part, because the masses won't step in until it's over.

I disagree... I'm not sure the masses really know or care who will win or when the war is over.

The masses will step in when a) players are a reasonable price for most people - probably $150-$200 and b) the discs are not twice what a DVD costs.

Most people just can't stomach the costs where they are now. It may happen that the costs come down and the "war" ends around the same time, or it may not, but I think the price is ultimately what will bring in the average consumer. If Blu-Ray or HD-DVD disappeared tomorrow and players were still $300-$500 and movies $25-$35, there wouldn't be a mass exodus of people just because the war was over.

 

[diogen]

...I think the price is ultimately what will bring in the average consumer.

Before this gets into the equation, they have to see what they are missing (HDTV set, proper setup) and they have to want to have it...

Long way to go. Unless both - players and movies - are priced exactly like DVD's and they will buy it not knowing the difference...

Diogen.

 

[ONUOsFan]

Before this gets into the equation, they have to see what they are missing (HDTV set, proper setup) and they have to want to have it...

Long way to go. Unless both - players and movies - are priced exactly like DVD's and they will buy it not knowing the difference...

Diogen.

Very true. As most of us here know, the average consumer has NO CLUE about HD...

 

[diogen]

Very true. As most of us here know, the average consumer has NO CLUE about HD...

This might actually be changing...
If you look through this thread, some plausible math is used to calculate market share, units sold, dynamics of sales, etc.
NPD: 1M total standalone HDM players by EOY, 400K? sold so far - AVS Forum
It just shows what a BS all the predictions of the HD/BD teams actually were...

To summarize:
- there will probably be around 1 mln. HD/BD players sold by year end (100% 360 add-on and 20% PS3 included);
- there is less than half of this number sold today (~400K);
- hidef media share jumped from around 1.5% to around 5% before and after August (averaged).

This last part is noteworthy (if true). The coming holiday season could be a brutal "take no prisoners" battle between HD and BD...

Diogen.

EDIT: I think packaging HDTVs with HTIB including a HD/BD/Combo player (instead of a DVD player) can become popular.
Imagine a Samsung HTIB with its upcoming combo HD/BD player packaged with a 50-60" LED DLP 1080 TV for under $5000. Could be tempting...

 

[navychop]

The masses will step in when a) players are a reasonable price for most people - probably $150-$200 and b) the discs are not twice what a DVD costs.

So it will likely be at least a year before a selection of players is regularly available for less than $200? And I doubt we'll see HD discs come down that fast. I think they'll stay at quite a premium for years to come.

..... I think the price is ultimately what will bring in the average consumer. If Blu-Ray or HD-DVD disappeared tomorrow and players were still $300-$500 and movies $25-$35, there wouldn't be a mass exodus of people just because the war was over.

I agree. I just think the war will be over before the average consumer starts buying in great numbers. But there will be a boost to sales after/if the war is settled with one victor, as those waiting for the outcome finally feel comfortable leaping off the fence.

Before this gets into the equation, they have to see what they are missing (HDTV set, proper setup) and they have to want to have it...

Long way to go. Unless both - players and movies - are priced exactly like DVD's and they will buy it not knowing the difference...

Diogen.

Certainly agree, at least with the first part. Most don't see the difference, or enough of a difference to get them to pay a big premium. Many might get it just to keep up with the Joneses- some day. But enough folks like us will set up systems correctly and show people how good it can be, and convert a few over. Once "most" see "some" benefit, they'll be willing to pay a premium over DVD. But how much? Not nearly as much as today. At some point, players and media will be "close enough" in price to DVD to start a major decline in DVD sales. I wouldn't expect that anytime soon.

 

[navychop]

- hidef media share jumped from around 1.5% to around 5% before and after August (averaged).

I think that's "player" share not "media." But it's great news! That is a much faster uptake than I had expected. Over 1% of U.S. households will have a high def player by the end of this year, plus even more with PS3s. That should easily drive the high def disc sales from below 1% of DVD sales to more like 2% and climbing. I think it's a safe assumption that high def player owners will buy/rent discs at a higher rate than the average DVD player owner.

 

[CochiseGuy]

From Home Media Magazine:

Software units sales ratios as of 10/7/07:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 68.......HD-DVD 32
YTD:....................Blu-ray 66.......HD-DVD 34
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 61.......HD-DVD 39

Normalized to make comparison with previous postings easier:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 47.1
YTD:....................Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 51.5
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 63.9

The Top 10 Selling individual titles for the week ending 10/7:

And the Top 10 Aggregate (combined sales in HD DVD & BD for Dual Format Releases:

BTW, I got Galapagos and really like it - as stunning PQ as Planet Earth, with a much more detailed look at Galapagos plants & animals and origins. :up

 

[navychop]

Is it the same Galapagos as is on Dish?

 

[JoeSp]

standalones definately.

But Vurbano, that standalone lead is not affecting sales. If you guys are spending less on your players should you not have more money to purchase movies?

On the other hand is the real reason for BD's disc sales lead the fact that most of the titles people want are on BluRay? Hummm

While I am here, every once and awhile the HD-DVD camp delivers one of the following: a Blockbuster release like Transformers, or a week where they release sometimes up to 5 TIMES as many titles as BD. My take on this is if the HD-DVD camp is that strong in those weeks they should lead the sales numbers - not just have a nice bump. Because after that week, they go back to the status quo. Check the numbers, they will bear me out. HD-DVD owners are gasping for a good title. It does not seem that what is being released for them is solving their thirst enough.

 

[navychop]

From Home Media Magazine:

Software units sales ratios as of 10/14/07:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 71.......HD-DVD 29
YTD:....................Blu-ray 66.......HD-DVD 34
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 61.......HD-DVD 39

Normalized to make comparison with previous postings easier:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 40.1
YTD:....................Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 51.5
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 63.9

Just a reminder, next week's report shall cover the opening week sales of Transformers on HD DVD only. This will likely represent the best chance for HD DVD titles to outsell Blu-ray titles. Every week since Xmas 2006, Blu-ray title sales have exceeded HD DVD sales.

 

[CochiseGuy]

Just a reminder, next week's report shall cover the opening week sales of Transformers on HD DVD only. This will likely represent the best chance for HD DVD titles to outsell Blu-ray titles. Every week since Xmas 2006, Blu-ray title sales have exceeded HD DVD sales.

Yes, it will be interesting to see if those transforming Robots or BOGO's win (Buy One Get One {free}).

Last week's Top Selling Titles:

 

[CochiseGuy]

2007 YTD High-def Disc Sales

Here's some new figures on Blu-ray / HD DVD disc sales updated for the 3rd Quarter 2007:

A reported on Yahoo News -

Home Media Research, a division of Home Media Magazine, said on Tuesday total U.S. sales of Blu-ray discs, using a Sony Corp-backed technology, totaled 2.6 million units from January 1 through Sept 30, versus 1.4 million HD-DVD discs sold.

From previous HMM reports, we have 2007 unit sales by Quarter as:

................BD HD DVD
Jan-Mar....832....359
Jan-Jun....1600...795
Jan-Sep....2600...1400

From which we can break out sales by Quarter:

..............BD.......HD DVD
Q1.........832......359
Q2.........768......436
Q3........1000.....605
(all totals in thousand units)

In playing around with graphs, YTD sales look like this for Units Sold:

While I do like the look of how the little red line just shoots straight up - as opposed to th dippy blue line ), the ratios tell an even more clear picture of what is happening. The difference between Blu-ray and HD DVD sales in percentages has declined over 14 basis points from Q1 to Q3:

[b]
        BD HD DVD TOTAL:		    BD	    HD DVD [/b]
Q1	832	359	1191	Q1	69.86%	30.14%
Q2	768	436	1204	Q2	63.79%	36.21%
Q3	1000	605	1605	Q3	62.31%	37.69%

Or, another way of looking at it - HD DVD sales increased almost 69% from Q1 to Q3, while Blu-ray increased just over 20%!

Could these be the numbers Warner is looking at? :

 

[CochiseGuy]

Well, it looks like the Buy 1 Get 1 Free Sale was enough to boost the POTC 1 & 2 to the top of the charts for Blu-ray. Will B1G1 be enough to keep HD DVD from winning the week?

From Home Media Magazine -

On the high-definition disc front, Transformers was the No. 1 HD DVD seller for the week, while on the Blu-ray Disc charts, the first two “Pirates of the Caribbean” movies returned to the top spots five months after their initial release. Transformers is available in high-def on HD DVD only; the “Pirates” films are exclusively on Blu-ray.

 

[vurbano]

I think Transformers will be hot for some time. Especially at Xmas.

 

[navychop]

How can it be? If they've already sold 1/3 to 1/2 the HD DVD player owners a copy, how many more can be interested? How many more HD DVD players will sell this year? Of course, the DVD version will keep selling. And they'll sell a boatload when/if they ever release it on Blu-ray in future years.

Despite claims of PS3 not selling well, it's selling way more than any stand alone players. And the 40GB version preorders are sold out on Amazon, however many that was. The gap between devices that can play Blu-ray, and devices that can play HD DVD, looks to be growing.

 

[ONUOsFan]

How can it be? If they've already sold 1/3 to 1/2 the HD DVD player owners a copy, how many more can be interested? How many more HD DVD players will sell this year? Of course, the DVD version will keep selling. And they'll sell a boatload when/if they ever release it on Blu-ray in future years.

Despite claims of PS3 not selling well, it's selling way more than any stand alone players. And the 40GB version preorders are sold out on Amazon, however many that was. The gap between devices that can play Blu-ray, and devices that can play HD DVD, looks to be growing.

Don't forget, though - you're only allowed to count 20% of PS3's as Blu-Ray players....