DIRECTV unlikely to keep NFL Sunday Ticket

[Bilbo1]

And the price for the Sub will Stay around $300, because they already know the customer will pay it.

That may be part of the thing… how many customers will pay it?

Right now, it’s what, 2million? Granted, having DirecTV is an obstacle, but how much of an obstacle? Streaming is an obstacle, too. I’d doubt you’d see many more than that at that price. Heck, in-market, they get maybe 10 million viewers aggregate for the de facto free OTA broadcasts. That has to be another cap for viewers on a free service.

Anyway, if Apple wants global, like what they did with MLS, the $300 subscription price has to be a nonstarter. No one outside the US will pay that much.

Requirements and limitations of this current package may discourage a lot of interest. Sure Apple or Amazon may be willing to pay big bucks, but how much will they accept their hand being tied? Eyeballs are money to them.

 

[Juan]

That may be part of the thing… how many customers will pay it?

Right now, it’s what, 2million? Granted, having DirecTV is an obstacle, but how much of an obstacle? Streaming is an obstacle, too. I’d doubt you’d see many more than that at that price. Heck, in-market, they get maybe 10 million viewers aggregate for the de facto free OTA broadcasts. That has to be another cap for viewers on a free service.

Anyway, if Apple wants global, like what they did with MLS, the $300 subscription price has to be a nonstarter. No one outside the US will pay that much.

Requirements and limitations of this current package may discourage a lot of interest. Sure Apple or Amazon may be willing to pay big bucks, but how much will they accept their hand being tied? Eyeballs are money to them.

They really don't know if the 2.5 billion deal for soccer will be succesful yet..they haven't announced a subscription price..and it was available thru ESPN for $6.99 a month

Success of Apple's groundbreaking MLS deal hinges on pricing

One of the words that keeps on coming up about the Apple MLS deal is groundbreaking. No doubt, most of the press coverage about Major League Soccer’s media rights deal with Apple has been positive. And so it should be. Apple is one of the leading brands in the world. At the same time, MLS […]

worldsoccertalk.com

 

[Yespage]

Intriguing… the streaming guys are saying it’s worth what they think it’s worth, not what the NFL thinks it’s worth.

Maybe they looked into the DirecTV ST numbers, saw viewership, cost per eyeball hour of the content and decided they didn’t want to pay more for the NFL than they do for Ted Lasso.

The NFL also has NFL+ vapor ware that they promised with no visible means of support.

Granted, I still think either Apple, Amazon, or Disney/ESPN will pay a pretty penny to get it… I just don’t think the penny will be as pretty as the NFL had hoped.

With interest rates increasing, debt is getting more expensive. So an entity like Disney might want to shy away now.

 

[Bruce]

And the price for the Sub will Stay around $300, because they already know the customer will pay it.

I am glad to pay it, I believe it is worth that price, I am just not willing to pay additional
$3500-up for 2 years of DirecTV to get it.

 

[cosmo_kramer]

That typically happens when you have this many posts.

More often than not, the 1st 50 or so are relevant to the subject and the rest are elsewhere.

This is Nothing new.

I was referring to your “other 300 million” comment. I don’t see the relevance of that number in this discussion.

 

[Jimbo]

That may be part of the thing… how many customers will pay it?

Right now, it’s what, 2million? Granted, having DirecTV is an obstacle, but how much of an obstacle? Streaming is an obstacle, too. I’d doubt you’d see many more than that at that price. Heck, in-market, they get maybe 10 million viewers aggregate for the de facto free OTA broadcasts. That has to be another cap for viewers on a free service.

Anyway, if Apple wants global, like what they did with MLS, the $300 subscription price has to be a nonstarter. No one outside the US will pay that much.

Requirements and limitations of this current package may discourage a lot of interest. Sure Apple or Amazon may be willing to pay big bucks, but how much will they accept their hand being tied? Eyeballs are money to them.

But, the story for the last year or so has been that once STREAMING is available that they will draw 10x what D* did because "Everybody" wants it and could not get D*, but can stream .... EVERYBODY will be signing up for it now. 🙁

 

[Bilbo1]

But, the story for the last year or so has been that once STRESAMING is available that they will draw 10x what D* did because "Everybody" wants it and could not get D*, but can stream .... EWVERYBODY will be signing up for it now. 🙁

Has that really been the story?

I thought the story was streamers have huge piles of cash and getting Sunday Ticket was a way to burn some of them.

Side stories of people cutting cords or resistance to cord cutting.

 

[meStevo]

When were franchises going to start folding again? Looks like NFL has picked up where it left off. Deals like the streaming Sunday Ticket will contribute to this in coming years, and doesn't yet reflect new monster broadcast deals recently signed.

 

[Juan]

When were franchises going to start folding again? Looks like NFL has picked up where it left off. Deals like the streaming Sunday Ticket will contribute to this in coming years, and doesn't yet reflect new monster broadcast deals recently signed.

View attachment 157643

What deal for streaming?

 

[televisionarchivesorlando]

But, the story for the last year or so has been that once STREAMING is available that they will draw 10x what D* did because "Everybody" wants it and could not get D*, but can stream .... EVERYBODY will be signing up for it now. 🙁

It's different now. I don't see them getting 10 million subscribers for Sunday Ticket. The NFL seems to be putting out some of these stories about people willing to pay top dollar for it. I don't believe it. In fact, a story just hit that ask "Are NFL’s Sunday Ticket talks not going well?" I believe they're not going well. Many did want the Sunday Ticket but didn't want to subscribe to Directv. Now with the Red Zone channel available and the price of NFL Sunday Ticket I believe many Fans won't pay for it. Directv doesn't want it and that's never a good thing for whoever takes it. They don't know how many subscribers they will actually get. They won't be happy with just 2 million subscribers that's for sure. In my opinion, the NFL would make at least 3 billion if they agreed to a non-exclusive deal like NBA/MLB League Passes. And I will bet you that's where this is heading.

 

[Jimbo]

It's different now. I don't see them getting 10 million subscribers for Sunday Ticket. The NFL seems to be putting out some of these stories about people willing to pay top dollar for it. I don't believe it. In fact, a story just hit that ask "Are NFL’s Sunday Ticket talks not going well?" I believe they're not going well. Many did want the Sunday Ticket but didn't want to subscribe to Directv. Now with the Red Zone channel available and the price of NFL Sunday Ticket I believe many Fans won't pay for it. Directv doesn't want it and that's never a good thing for whoever takes it. They don't know how many subscribers they will actually get. They won't be happy with just 2 million subscribers that's for sure. In my opinion, the NFL would make at least 3 billion if they agreed to a non-exclusive deal like NBA/MLB League Passes. And I will bet you that's where this is heading.

The NFL would have to accept a Huge piece of "Humble Pie" for that to happen.

 

[Bilbo1]

The NFL would have to accept a Huge piece of "Humble Pie" for that to happen.

It may be worth $3 billion a year to Apple to get global streaming rights to Sunday Ticket, including in-market, like Apple got from MLS.

But, a premium subscription only version would have much less value to Apple. It’s not going to drive subscribers to their service like it did for DirecTV. For DirecTV, 2 million subscribers is $3-4 billion a year in revenue over the $600 million in Sunday Ticket subscription revenue. 2 million Apple+ subscriptions is less than $150 million a year of revenue.

The NFL will spin whatever the outcome as an opportunity to build the brand. Plus, the ESPN+ cap for the deal was over $2 billion a year… they should come out a little ahead going that route.

 

[SamCdbs]

IMHO, "global" rights to ST are minimal $$ at best. The only other country where the NFL is followed closely by a large group of people is Canada, which already has a ST rights holder, which AFAIK that contract has several years to run; and where, since most everyone can get the US OTA TV, there are the same 3 "free" games every Sunday afternoon anyway. (You know what? It would be good to know the number of ST subscribers in Canada and see how much air there really is in this theory that millions and millions (in fact more millions than actually watch regular season "free" games) are out there in the USA, staring dumbly at their phone, wishing oh wishing it got ST).

In the rest of the world, at best, the NFL is a niche of a niche play. The idea that a lot of people in Europe or Latin America are going to pay to see a particular team's games, over and above what they get now on regular services, is just not real.

 

[slice1900]

It may be worth $3 billion a year to Apple to get global streaming rights to Sunday Ticket, including in-market, like Apple got from MLS.

But, a premium subscription only version would have much less value to Apple. It’s not going to drive subscribers to their service like it did for DirecTV. For DirecTV, 2 million subscribers is $3-4 billion a year in revenue over the $600 million in Sunday Ticket subscription revenue. 2 million Apple+ subscriptions is less than $150 million a year of revenue.

The NFL will spin whatever the outcome as an opportunity to build the brand. Plus, the ESPN+ cap for the deal was over $2 billion a year… they should come out a little ahead going that route.

Apple doesn't have make their money driving people to their streaming service. They have the 1-2 minutes an hour of ad inserts during each game, which they can use to tailor ads to customers.

Maybe they only get a couple million new Apple TV+ subscribers out of the deal, but if they can convert non customers into customers by getting people to switch from Android to iPhone or PC to Mac, or encourage existing customers to upgrade or expand their portfolio (i.e. convince someone with an iPhone to buy a Mac or a Watch) that adds up.

Or just get someone who was on the fence about upgrading their iPhone to do so. The NFL season starts just over a week after Apple introduces the new iPhone models each year, so the timing works out well for them in that regard. Apple will know exactly what model of iPhone those people currently have, so they could even show ads that hone in on specific features they would get their current phone doesn't have like 5G - and even show a map of 5G coverage in their area for their carrier.

 

[Juan]

Apple doesn't have make their money driving people to their streaming service. They have the 1-2 minutes an hour of ad inserts during each game, which they can use to tailor ads to customers.

Maybe they only get a couple million new Apple TV+ subscribers out of the deal, but if they can convert non customers into customers by getting people to switch from Android to iPhone or PC to Mac, or encourage existing customers to upgrade or expand their portfolio (i.e. convince someone with an iPhone to buy a Mac or a Watch) that adds up.

Or just get someone who was on the fence about upgrading their iPhone to do so. The NFL season starts just over a week after Apple introduces the new iPhone models each year, so the timing works out well for them in that regard. Apple will know exactly what model of iPhone those people currently have, so they could even show ads that hone in on specific features they would get their current phone doesn't have like 5G - and even show a map of 5G coverage in their area for their carrier.

How many people watch football on a cell phone or tablet?

 

[Jimbo]

How many people watch football on a cell phone or tablet?

On the run, yes ...
At home, never.

 

[Bilbo1]

IMHO, "global" rights to ST are minimal $$ at best.

The NFL has been playing games in London since 2007. They have 5 games scheduled this year in London, Munich, and Mexico City. They have been definitely trying to expand the market globally. Heck, they sponsored the World League of American Football back in the 90s.

But, true that the $$$ for those rights are small compared to the US rights. That doesn’t mean it’s unimportant to the NFL, and a potential market that whoever gets the rights wouldn’t try to exploit.

 

[dtv757]

How many people watch football on a cell phone or tablet?

I remember when local games were exclusive to VZW /nfl mobile !!

 

[Jimbo]

The NFL has been playing games in London since 2007. They have 5 games scheduled this year in London, Munich, and Mexico City. They have been definitely trying to expand the market globally. Heck, they sponsored the World League of American Football back in the 90s.

But, true that the $$$ for those rights are small compared to the US rights. That doesn’t mean it’s unimportant to the NFL, and a potential market that whoever gets the rights wouldn’t try to exploit.

NFL can make games in these places all they want ... no one outside of the US is watching them ... sure if you have a game once in a while , they will be excited to see it ... if they actually somehow (lets hope Not) had a regular season over there, attendance would be good in the beginning, but non existent by the end of the year.

 

[Juan]

I remember when local games were exclusive to VZW /nfl mobile !!

Actually you can't..they never were exclusive..local games are ALWAYS on tv...back in the 60s they had local blackouts if the stadium sold out