A new DIRECTV Genie DVR coming soon?
- Thread starter Carlos MineBoi
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so why build new hardware with people fleeing in droves.. when does dish sats expire i always heard that dtv has more life span than dish
AT&T stated that there not building any more sats. i doubt that tgp will build another sat.. if anything i think dish and dtv would merge to keep em aflot for a while longer
AT&T gave up on D* many years ago ....
Once Streaming started,, they gave up on doing anything for the Sat user. (Sadly)
Once Streaming started,, they gave up on doing anything for the Sat user. (Sadly)
Yes, DTV has more expected life left in their satellites than Dish. Don’t remember how much longer. some satellites last much longer than expected. Some die early.
If TPG wanted to build a new satellite for DIRECTV, they would be required to ask AT&T for permission, but AT&T is basically just gonna say no
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TPG would never do that, they were trying to merge with Dish just a few months after acquiring the 30% of DirecTV, so to make the investment ( and more) back.
It will be well before that, the Satellite side of DirecTV (also own Stream and Uverse) is now under 10 million, they lose 1.5-2 million a year in subscribers , this year is expected a additional 1 million gone because of the loss of ST.
So, at a loss of 2.5 million this year
1.5-2 million in 2024
1.5-2 million in 2025
1.5-2 million in 2026
So by the end of 2026, at least 7 million gone and no longer profitable.
Well this thread is a fun read, some forecasting new hardware, some forecasting the end of the company by 2030 as satellites expire, those are far apart predictions 
I'll throw out my thoughts - cause this is fun:
There will not be new hardware. The subscriber base is shrinking, no end in sight, and all that reclaimed hardware can be reused. There may be small production runs of a specific piece of hardware as needed, such as H25 for commercial, additional C71KW if they as they use the inventory to rollout Genini for satellite customers, dishes and LNBs of course.
More on that C71KW - this hardware is the same for streaming and satellite, it just uses different firmware. That's intentional. In fact, many people receiving Gemini's are getting used hardware manufactured in 2020 or 2021, with a sticker on the bottom "GEM" - meaning Gemini firmware. The streaming uses the Osprey firmware. Both are Google based, just a different DirecTV primary app - whether streaming or client. That is the only hardware Directv will still be producing, and only when they are out of recycle equipment from cancelled subscribers. Any upgrade to that C71KW will likely just be if a chipset is no longer available from the manufacturer and they need to upgrade to a newer chipset. This is very much about keeping costs low.
Now the tougher prediction - how will the company wind-down as the subscriber base continues to shrink. I agree they won't be adding to the satellite fleet, but I would predict that it is possible that one replacement satellite could happen to replace 101 when the time comes. Here's why:
- MPEG 2 will get shutdown eventually, when it makes financial sense to do so. It may not make financial sense until either the 99 or 103 satellite fail and they have to get serious about bandwidth. Today- they have extra bandwidth. They built capacity for 4K, which to date has not evolved - think reverse band. I feel their strategy has changed, and 4K will remain a highly limited offering of live events only. This capacity will narrow as satellites expire, over the next 10 years or so. That will drive the MPEG 2 shutdown, channel consolidation, and - eventually - possibly even reducing channel counts, depending on capacity. Eventually we could even see reductions in some channel categories - lesser watched national channels, local channels reduced in small markets, lower subscribed international packages, redundant PPV/Paid Programming (remember less subscribers mean less paid programming makes sense to B2B buyers).
- Dish eventually merges or sells to Direct. The government won't block because there isn't enough subscribers to have two firms profitable and it is in the public interest to have a satellite offering. The example is SiriusXM. And after they combine the customer bases, it may look like Sirius XM for multiple years - probably until satellite failure. For a while, possibly years, they'll run both platforms. It will take Dish satellites failing to get them serious about migrating Dish customers into Directv dishes/equipment. The longer they wait, the less subscribers remain that need to be transitioned. The bulk of their investment will be updating firmware to change the logos on the receivers, and possibly, eventually, transitioning to one biller system. But as they've shown with AT&T, they certainly won't be in a rush.
- Long term, eventually, they could get down to one satellite location, as they won't have enough subscribers to maintain a fleet of satellites, it wouldn't be cost effective. But one satellite location (probably with a few satellites to handle spotbeams), would be out to like 2035 or later, and at that point the subscriber base will be much smaller - which leads to my next point...
-Eventually, the service becomes a lifeline service. Following consolidation with Dish, there will still be enough demand to keep one service online. Commercial customers, remote/rural areas, etc - at some point it will likely qualify for government assistance to keep the service going, i.e. tax breaks/credits. We still subsidize landline phones in this country, and will be for a long time to come, this could eventually be in the same boat. Could you see a $40/month limited package for customers that have no other TV service available, and they get tax breaks to offer it - I sure could. When you get down to a few million customers, and congress people hear from their rural constituents - "save my tv - I have no other options", they'll find a way to make it work with lower costs, all while still charging $200/month for customers that want full featured traditional service.
And finally, when does it fail, when does the last receive no longer get a signal and the last bill is paid - I'm going to guess it lingers on until 2040-2045, depending on how long that one replacement satellite lasts, and how long the government subsidies last. Did I mention we are still subsidizing landline phones...and will be for a long while.
Hope that was a good read, all in good fun.
I'll throw out my thoughts - cause this is fun:
There will not be new hardware. The subscriber base is shrinking, no end in sight, and all that reclaimed hardware can be reused. There may be small production runs of a specific piece of hardware as needed, such as H25 for commercial, additional C71KW if they as they use the inventory to rollout Genini for satellite customers, dishes and LNBs of course.
More on that C71KW - this hardware is the same for streaming and satellite, it just uses different firmware. That's intentional. In fact, many people receiving Gemini's are getting used hardware manufactured in 2020 or 2021, with a sticker on the bottom "GEM" - meaning Gemini firmware. The streaming uses the Osprey firmware. Both are Google based, just a different DirecTV primary app - whether streaming or client. That is the only hardware Directv will still be producing, and only when they are out of recycle equipment from cancelled subscribers. Any upgrade to that C71KW will likely just be if a chipset is no longer available from the manufacturer and they need to upgrade to a newer chipset. This is very much about keeping costs low.
Now the tougher prediction - how will the company wind-down as the subscriber base continues to shrink. I agree they won't be adding to the satellite fleet, but I would predict that it is possible that one replacement satellite could happen to replace 101 when the time comes. Here's why:
- MPEG 2 will get shutdown eventually, when it makes financial sense to do so. It may not make financial sense until either the 99 or 103 satellite fail and they have to get serious about bandwidth. Today- they have extra bandwidth. They built capacity for 4K, which to date has not evolved - think reverse band. I feel their strategy has changed, and 4K will remain a highly limited offering of live events only. This capacity will narrow as satellites expire, over the next 10 years or so. That will drive the MPEG 2 shutdown, channel consolidation, and - eventually - possibly even reducing channel counts, depending on capacity. Eventually we could even see reductions in some channel categories - lesser watched national channels, local channels reduced in small markets, lower subscribed international packages, redundant PPV/Paid Programming (remember less subscribers mean less paid programming makes sense to B2B buyers).
- Dish eventually merges or sells to Direct. The government won't block because there isn't enough subscribers to have two firms profitable and it is in the public interest to have a satellite offering. The example is SiriusXM. And after they combine the customer bases, it may look like Sirius XM for multiple years - probably until satellite failure. For a while, possibly years, they'll run both platforms. It will take Dish satellites failing to get them serious about migrating Dish customers into Directv dishes/equipment. The longer they wait, the less subscribers remain that need to be transitioned. The bulk of their investment will be updating firmware to change the logos on the receivers, and possibly, eventually, transitioning to one biller system. But as they've shown with AT&T, they certainly won't be in a rush.
- Long term, eventually, they could get down to one satellite location, as they won't have enough subscribers to maintain a fleet of satellites, it wouldn't be cost effective. But one satellite location (probably with a few satellites to handle spotbeams), would be out to like 2035 or later, and at that point the subscriber base will be much smaller - which leads to my next point...
-Eventually, the service becomes a lifeline service. Following consolidation with Dish, there will still be enough demand to keep one service online. Commercial customers, remote/rural areas, etc - at some point it will likely qualify for government assistance to keep the service going, i.e. tax breaks/credits. We still subsidize landline phones in this country, and will be for a long time to come, this could eventually be in the same boat. Could you see a $40/month limited package for customers that have no other TV service available, and they get tax breaks to offer it - I sure could. When you get down to a few million customers, and congress people hear from their rural constituents - "save my tv - I have no other options", they'll find a way to make it work with lower costs, all while still charging $200/month for customers that want full featured traditional service.
And finally, when does it fail, when does the last receive no longer get a signal and the last bill is paid - I'm going to guess it lingers on until 2040-2045, depending on how long that one replacement satellite lasts, and how long the government subsidies last. Did I mention we are still subsidizing landline phones...and will be for a long while.
Hope that was a good read, all in good fun.
Aside from refurbished HR54s and HS17s, the Gemini is the only new equipment DIRECTV will makeWell this thread is a fun read, some forecasting new hardware, some forecasting the end of the company by 2030 as satellites expire, those are far apart predictions
I'll throw out my thoughts - cause this is fun:
There will not be new hardware. The subscriber base is shrinking, no end in sight, and all that reclaimed hardware can be reused. There may be small production runs of a specific piece of hardware as needed, such as H25 for commercial, additional C71KW if they as they use the inventory to rollout Genini for satellite customers, dishes and LNBs of course.
More on that C71KW - this hardware is the same for streaming and satellite, it just uses different firmware. That's intentional. In fact, many people receiving Gemini's are getting used hardware manufactured in 2020 or 2021, with a sticker on the bottom "GEM" - meaning Gemini firmware. The streaming uses the Osprey firmware. Both are Google based, just a different DirecTV primary app - whether streaming or client. That is the only hardware Directv will still be producing, and only when they are out of recycle equipment from cancelled subscribers. Any upgrade to that C71KW will likely just be if a chipset is no longer available from the manufacturer and they need to upgrade to a newer chipset. This is very much about keeping costs low.
Now the tougher prediction - how will the company wind-down as the subscriber base continues to shrink. I agree they won't be adding to the satellite fleet, but I would predict that it is possible that one replacement satellite could happen to replace 101 when the time comes. Here's why:
- MPEG 2 will get shutdown eventually, when it makes financial sense to do so. It may not make financial sense until either the 99 or 103 satellite fail and they have to get serious about bandwidth. Today- they have extra bandwidth. They built capacity for 4K, which to date has not evolved - think reverse band. I feel their strategy has changed, and 4K will remain a highly limited offering of live events only. This capacity will narrow as satellites expire, over the next 10 years or so. That will drive the MPEG 2 shutdown, channel consolidation, and - eventually - possibly even reducing channel counts, depending on capacity. Eventually we could even see reductions in some channel categories - lesser watched national channels, local channels reduced in small markets, lower subscribed international packages, redundant PPV/Paid Programming (remember less subscribers mean less paid programming makes sense to B2B buyers).
- Dish eventually merges or sells to Direct. The government won't block because there isn't enough subscribers to have two firms profitable and it is in the public interest to have a satellite offering. The example is SiriusXM. And after they combine the customer bases, it may look like Sirius XM for multiple years - probably until satellite failure. For a while, possibly years, they'll run both platforms. It will take Dish satellites failing to get them serious about migrating Dish customers into Directv dishes/equipment. The longer they wait, the less subscribers remain that need to be transitioned. The bulk of their investment will be updating firmware to change the logos on the receivers, and possibly, eventually, transitioning to one biller system. But as they've shown with AT&T, they certainly won't be in a rush.
- Long term, eventually, they could get down to one satellite location, as they won't have enough subscribers to maintain a fleet of satellites, it wouldn't be cost effective. But one satellite location (probably with a few satellites to handle spotbeams), would be out to like 2035 or later, and at that point the subscriber base will be much smaller - which leads to my next point...
-Eventually, the service becomes a lifeline service. Following consolidation with Dish, there will still be enough demand to keep one service online. Commercial customers, remote/rural areas, etc - at some point it will likely qualify for government assistance to keep the service going, i.e. tax breaks/credits. We still subsidize landline phones in this country, and will be for a long time to come, this could eventually be in the same boat. Could you see a $40/month limited package for customers that have no other TV service available, and they get tax breaks to offer it - I sure could. When you get down to a few million customers, and congress people hear from their rural constituents - "save my tv - I have no other options", they'll find a way to make it work with lower costs, all while still charging $200/month for customers that want full featured traditional service.
And finally, when does it fail, when does the last receive no longer get a signal and the last bill is paid - I'm going to guess it lingers on until 2040-2045, depending on how long that one replacement satellite lasts, and how long the government subsidies last. Did I mention we are still subsidizing landline phones...and will be for a long while.
Hope that was a good read, all in good fun.
This is just a WAG, probably wrong so I'm not going to argue with anyone about it, but I think it may not be just a coincidence that both Dish (with the Hopper Plus and Joey(s)4) and DirecTV (with the Gemini) are moving toward Android-based streaming boxes that are also add-ons to their last generation (Hopper/Genie) satellite DVRs.
As they get more of these devices in their customers homes, it will be easier to transition to IP delivery of their services when the satellites die. Also in event of a merger, since both providers boxes will run on the same Android OS they will be able to roll out a new common UI for the merged service.
I don't understand why the Gemini couldn't have had the DTV Stream GUI? I know it's probably because they thought no one would have to learn a new GUI but wouldn't the Gemini be a niche product for certain DTV customers and not all DTV customers would care about getting a Gemini?
In fact, DIRECTV a Genie 3 HD-DVR, with more tuners (maybe up to 10 or 16), not require the need of a 4K mini for 4K (in other words, allow 4K to be output over HDMI), have the same Gemini UI to support apps, include 2TB of storage, allow the use of older HD-DVRs (like the HR54 and HR54R1 do), be compatible with Wireless receivers (requires the use of Wireless Video Bridge), and include the Gemini Voice Remote. And also include a new design for the box.
For this one, they should not require 2 or more active Genie Mini’s to get the Gemini. In fact, they should allow customers to choose if the Gemini can be for all additional TVs. If they choose just a normal Genie Mini, then it should be the C61K used instead of the normal C61. Or maybe with this one, introduce a C81K, with the same UI as Gemini, a new design, 4K support, and Gemini Voice Remote. A Wireless version should also be made for those with an HS17 Genie 2 or a Wireless Video Bridge installed.
If you don’t think a C81 should be made for the Genie 3 (assuming they ever decide to make a Genie 3 HD-DVR, which I doubt they will), the Gemini should be the main client option for Genie 3.
I don’t think this will ever happen, but if it does, let’s just hope it’s not based on the Genie 2.
Quite possible, you asked how long the Sats are good for, not the Company ....
And your hoping a dying company is going to do ALL this ... for the few that are left . (I am one of them) and don't expect them to make any changes ....
I've been watching att for over 30 years now, closely ... they do nothing to help the customer unless it helps them 10 fold.
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