This has happened many times before with the NDs, USCs of the world. This is nothing new.
2015 NCAA football discussion thread
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This has happened many times before with the NDs, USCs of the world. This is nothing new.
Which teams are you saying have a better schedule than Notre Dame and deserve a spot instead of them? If Oklahoma State or Iowa win out they will get in instead of ND. They both have lower strength of schedule ratings than ND but if they go undefeated they deserve the spot. I don't think any other team has a legitimate gripe.
Also, when exactly has this happened before with Notre Dame where you can say they got in because of their name and not what they did on the field? When they lost to Alabama in the championship game a few years ago? They were undefeated against a good schedule that year and absolutely deserved to be there. That is the only recent time they have played for a national championship so I'm not sure what you are talking about. Sorry but that argument is weak.
Edit: Also, when have ECU or UCF ever had a stronger schedule than Notre Dame? Notre Dame plays a decent schedule every year that is certainly better than what ECU and UCF face. Your hypothetical of them playing a tougher schedule than Notre Dame, going undefeated, and getting left out because Notre Dame has a better name has never happened as far as I can tell.
Yes the same Arkansas that lost to Toledo
.Fwiw, Toledo is a pretty good team, year in and year out.
I am pretty much agreement with you here, Bama has been playing MUCH better since the loss.
I wouldn't say that ACC schedule ND plays is any better than any other conference.
Clemson and Pitt are the only ones there that have a winning record that they played. (in thier acc schedule)
They don't really play an ACC schedule though. That's only 6 of their games. They also have decent Pac 12 games against Stanford and USC. Temple was undefeated and ranked when they beat them and Navy is ranked now. They also opened their season against Texas while many teams opt to play a cupcake in the opening week. Texas didn't turn out to be very good this year but they had no way of knowing that when they scheduled them.
It's not just my opinion that they have a tougher schedule than the other teams in question outside of Alabama. They have a higher strength of schedule ranking than all of those teams. Like I said, Oklahoma State or Iowa deserve to get in ahead of them if they win out because they will be undefeated in a power 5 conference. The committee will put those teams in if they pull that off. I don't think any other teams on the outside looking in have a legitimate gripe against them.
The idea that Notre Dame hasn't done anything this year and will only get in, if they do get in, because of their name is silly. Their strength of schedule just doesn't say that and their only loss was by 2 points to the #1 team in the country.
I'm not one saying they will get in due to thier name ... however, USC is not very good this year, Stanford is actually not as good as you would expect either, heck the Pac 12 may be the conference that gets left out this year, IF only one does.
They should beat Navy 9 out of 10 years and Temple while having a very good year, is not in the Power 5 class of upper teams, much like I would not expect Toledo to beat them, Temple and Toledo are in the same situation, both in lower level conferences ... while both are very good and capable of beating a upper team from time to time, it wouldn't pan out in the long run.
A few years back Marshall thought they were the next big deal and moved up in conference play and are back to being irrelevant.
Boise State while making great strides to join the Big boys are not winning thier conferences either (not a Power 5 conference).
As for Ok State, they have moved up and played well, but to move up from 12 2 weeks ago to top 4 is a stretch.
As for Iowa, If Ohio State makes it, Iowa won't.
Osu will have to have beat Iowa to get there and Iowa would then be out of the running for the Top 4 spots, they will NOT put in 2 Big Ten teams particularly if one has a loss.
I agree that they won't put 2 big 10 teams in and I don't think they should. Iowa has had an easier road through the Big 10 than most. If they lose to Ohio State in the Big 10 championship game they don't deserve to make it. They would have the same record as Notre Dame at that point with a weaker schedule. My point was that if Iowa wins out they deserve a spot more than Ohio State does because they will be Big 10 champs.
As for Oklahoma State, their early schedule was weak but if they finish out the season undefeated with wins over TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma they deserve a spot too.
If Iowa beats the Buckeyes (provided they make it to the BT Championship game), the Buckeyes would not be going as I doubt they would put both in with a loss ... for that matter I'm not sure that if Iowa does beat the Bucks that Iowa would make it in the top 4 .... that may give the committee a reason to definitely put ND in.
If Iowa and/or Oklahoma St. win out, they will be in. Plain and simple, the committee will not ignore an undefeated power-5 champion.
Realistically the only open slot then would be the one Alabama is in, which if Clempson, OkState, and OhioSt/Iowa is left undefeated would go to either the Tide or Notre Dame.
Right now, it seems to be Alabama, but with Ole Miss and LSU continuing to lose, Alabama won't have any victories against ranked teams (the committee looks at where they're ranked at the times of the rankings, not when they played, they said as much last year), and their loss would be to an unranked team, as opposed to Notre Dame's single loss to #1 Clempson.
So Alabama needs Notre Dame to lose, or Florida to beat FSU to make the conference championship game look good. Course if Oklahoma St or the Big Ten champ trip up, then both the Tide and Irish are in, assuming they each beat Florida and Stanford, neither of which is a given.
Who know, South Carolina might even beat Clempson, though it would be more likely that North Carolina would in the ACC game, if the Tigers are too lose.
Don't you just love end of the season guessing?
Realistically the only open slot then would be the one Alabama is in, which if Clempson, OkState, and OhioSt/Iowa is left undefeated would go to either the Tide or Notre Dame.
Right now, it seems to be Alabama, but with Ole Miss and LSU continuing to lose, Alabama won't have any victories against ranked teams (the committee looks at where they're ranked at the times of the rankings, not when they played, they said as much last year), and their loss would be to an unranked team, as opposed to Notre Dame's single loss to #1 Clempson.
So Alabama needs Notre Dame to lose, or Florida to beat FSU to make the conference championship game look good. Course if Oklahoma St or the Big Ten champ trip up, then both the Tide and Irish are in, assuming they each beat Florida and Stanford, neither of which is a given.
Who know, South Carolina might even beat Clempson, though it would be more likely that North Carolina would in the ACC game, if the Tigers are too lose.
Don't you just love end of the season guessing?
Bamas schedule and their opponents win loss record as opposed to a one loss ND, or possibly even Iowa or OK state will keep them in, assuming Bama wins out.
Currently they have played and beaten Wisc (8-2) and LSU (8-2) in the top 25, with top 10 Florida (9-1)to go. Reasonable to assume State (7-3) or Ole miss (7-3) one will be ranked at the end of the season with what is left on the schedule. I see State winning that matchup, which helps bama more, but even ole miss being ranked wont hurt them much. Then Georgia (7-3) should win out and finished ranked, Arkansas (6-4) has a good chance of finishing ranked, although possibly at the expense of MSU, and A&M should finish 8-4 with games left against Vandy and LSU.
Their resume will be as good as anyones. With wins over (projected finish)
9-3 Georgia
11-2 Florida
9-2 LSU
8-4 A&M
10-2 Wisconsin
7-5 Arkansas
9-3 Miss state
Plus a likely 8-4 Tennessee
Currently they have played and beaten Wisc (8-2) and LSU (8-2) in the top 25, with top 10 Florida (9-1)to go. Reasonable to assume State (7-3) or Ole miss (7-3) one will be ranked at the end of the season with what is left on the schedule. I see State winning that matchup, which helps bama more, but even ole miss being ranked wont hurt them much. Then Georgia (7-3) should win out and finished ranked, Arkansas (6-4) has a good chance of finishing ranked, although possibly at the expense of MSU, and A&M should finish 8-4 with games left against Vandy and LSU.
Their resume will be as good as anyones. With wins over (projected finish)
9-3 Georgia
11-2 Florida
9-2 LSU
8-4 A&M
10-2 Wisconsin
7-5 Arkansas
9-3 Miss state
Plus a likely 8-4 Tennessee
If Iowa and/or Oklahoma St. win out, they will be in. Plain and simple, the committee will not ignore an undefeated power-5 champion.
Realistically the only open slot then would be the one Alabama is in, which if Clempson, OkState, and OhioSt/Iowa is left undefeated would go to either the Tide or Notre Dame.
Right now, it seems to be Alabama, but with Ole Miss and LSU continuing to lose, Alabama won't have any victories against ranked teams (the committee looks at where they're ranked at the times of the rankings, not when they played, they said as much last year), and their loss would be to an unranked team, as opposed to Notre Dame's single loss to #1 Clempson.
So Alabama needs Notre Dame to lose, or Florida to beat FSU to make the conference championship game look good. Course if Oklahoma St or the Big Ten champ trip up, then both the Tide and Irish are in, assuming they each beat Florida and Stanford, neither of which is a given.
Who know, South Carolina might even beat Clempson, though it would be more likely that North Carolina would in the ACC game, if the Tigers are too lose.
Don't you just love end of the season guessing?
That's why I really like this 4 team playoff they went to. It made the end of the season more interesting. Without it we would probably be talking about whether Clemson and Ohio State could stay undefeated and play for the BCS championship game or if one of them would drop a game and let Oklahoma State or Iowa break in.
Alabama and Notre Dame probably wouldn't even be part of the conversation with 1 loss while there are more than 2 undefeated power 5 conference teams left.
Just for schedule comparison purposes, I figured up the win loss record of the opponents for the teams in the running for the top 4 spots. Records are current as of today.
Bama's opponents have a win loss record of 61-38. They have not played a FCS school but do this week against 9-1 Charleston Southern.
Ohio state opponent win loss record is 45-54
ND opponent win loss record is 55-44
Iowa opponent win loss record is 50-50 with one of those teams being a 8-2 FCS school
OK state opponent win loss record is 44-55 with one of those teams being a 7-3 FCS school.
Clemson opponent win loss record is 56-44 with one of those teams being a 4-6 FCS school.
Oklahoma opponent win loss record is 45-53.
I left Baylor out of the discussion as they have played three schools with winning records. They have two wins against 6-5 texas tech and 5-4 west Virginia, and got beat by 9-1 Oklahoma.
Bama's opponents have a win loss record of 61-38. They have not played a FCS school but do this week against 9-1 Charleston Southern.
Ohio state opponent win loss record is 45-54
ND opponent win loss record is 55-44
Iowa opponent win loss record is 50-50 with one of those teams being a 8-2 FCS school
OK state opponent win loss record is 44-55 with one of those teams being a 7-3 FCS school.
Clemson opponent win loss record is 56-44 with one of those teams being a 4-6 FCS school.
Oklahoma opponent win loss record is 45-53.
I left Baylor out of the discussion as they have played three schools with winning records. They have two wins against 6-5 texas tech and 5-4 west Virginia, and got beat by 9-1 Oklahoma.
Problem is, you can't use W/L as a measure, especially for the SEC, due to their horrid OOC scheduling. (though not Bama as much)
Current SOS:
Bama 13 (but missing an FCS so this will drop)
ND 41
tOSU 105
OKlite 119
OU 100
Clems. 46
Games left against: (RPI)
Bama 95, 45, 9 (though UF will drop due to SEC's cupcake saturday)
ND 108,16
tOSU 8,15,TBD (though likely Iowa at 5)
OKlite 10,7, TBD
OU 11,4, TBD
Clems. 113,102,TBD (though likely UNC at 12)
tOSU/OKLite/OU are all heavily backloaded - this is going to be interesting...
It is not the only measure, but it is one important one, as the other schools have their own weak OOC schedules as well. SOS is basically another way of posting what I did above, as you see the three with the current strongest SOS are also the only three where opponents have winning records.
It will certainly adjust itself somewhat with the upcoming games, but I would bet that the SOS will stay around the same order. And UF will stay near the top 10 with FSU on the schedule.
It will certainly adjust itself somewhat with the upcoming games, but I would bet that the SOS will stay around the same order. And UF will stay near the top 10 with FSU on the schedule.
Iowa, Clempson, and both OSU's are undefeated, so comparing W/L of opponents means nothing as long as Alabama has an L and they don't. When/if they lose, then bring on the comparisons. Until then, they deserve a spot over the Alabama.
Lose a game, and you have no one to blame but yourself.
Lose a game, and you have no one to blame but yourself.
I don't think most reasonable people would argue otherwise. Oklahoma State still has to beat good Oklahoma and Baylor teams.
Ohio State still has to beat Michigan State, Michigan, and an undefeated Iowa team in the Big 10 championship game.
Iowa is going to have to beat Ohio State, Michigan State, or Michigan in the Big 10 championship game to win out.
None of those teams have an easy road to the playoffs ahead of them and at most only two of those teams can finish undefeated since Iowa and Ohio State would have to play for the Big 10 Championship game.
I think it's very likely that only Clemson is left unbeaten after the next couple weeks. I'm not saying that any of those teams can't win out but Oklahoma State and Ohio State have particularly rough games ahead. Clemson has an easier finish but they still have to win an ACC championship game to finish undefeated.
It apparently means something at this point, as a one loss Bama is in, and two undefeated teams are not (could change, but I really do not see it happening if Bama, and perhaps ND win out). A lot of that is based on the level of competition. Until all schedules are created equal, the opponent win loss/strength of schedule factor should be considered for teams that are on the cusp. Granted, the win loss records will change over the next few weeks, and if Bama or ND struggle and the others blow out their remaining opponents, then perhaps we will see a swing.
Of the two undefeated teams outside looking in, I can see Iowa making it if they win the Big 10. OK state I think is left out even if they win the Big 12, unless they totally manhandle Oklahoma.
You would think so, but don't forget the mass movements last year on the committee's poll week to week. TCU & Baylor can attest how quickly you can drop out while still winning, due to other teams having incidentals like a championship or in this case a perfect record.
Same as Ohio St. got in with it's Big Ten crown, so will Iowa and/or Okie St. with a perfect record and Big 10/12 crown.
sorry to dissapoint but another win over auburn and a win over Florida which should be ranked higher will probably jump Clemson not fall to anyone.
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