Will you pay a premium for an iPhone 8 (X)?

[TheForce]

Roland- The market top was before the SOTU. I sold a bit of my Apple stock at it's peak of $180.00 using a trailing stop to catch the peak less a few pennies, then bought it back at $170. Bought a little more this morning at $158.00. I'm done now as I'm all in and out of cash. I've been buying heavy into this correction on Google, Boeing, Alibaba. I also sold all my Amazon to raise the cash for these buys. That was a really great run.

BTW- Apple stock usually tanks after a great quarterly report. This time was no different. But this time it had company in that the big boys decided to sell off the whole market.

 

[TheForce]

Need a justification for buying the top iphoneX 256GB model?

Very briefly, Ben shows what you can do with the iphone X as a 360VR video editor using a Rylo 360 camera and the iphoneX.

 

[harshness]

The camera shoots in spherical but the app converts it to 2D. Isn't that kind of the antithesis of VR?

 

[TheForce]

The camera shoots in spherical but the app converts it to 2D. Isn't that kind of the antithesis of VR?

All VR is actually shot in spherical and converted to equirectangular format which is a 2D image, unless the camera is designed for 3D ( two side by side lenses; a minimum of 4 cameras front and back). The only way you can get true VR is by viewing on an Head Mounted Display.

The biggest disadvantage I see with present day 360VR technology is the resolution. Even with 4K cameras, the final equirectangular is limited to 4K UHD. When this is projected in true 4KVR, the resolution is reduced to 1/pi for the horizontal and 1/pi for the vertical. That makes the resolution less than HD quality. If the VR goggles are not also 4K screens per eye, then that further reduces the resolution to a quality more like the old VHS analog. This is a huge turn-off to most people. But I see other advantages to 360VR that intrigue me. Such as the ability to record the entire world around us at the same time and allow the viewer later on to see anything in that world we might have seen had we looked in that direction at the time of recording. With the VR HMD you can simply look around and the view you see is like you were there because the system uses a geo synchronous display that synchronizes your viewing direction with the video you see at the time. In addition, the system uses ambisonic stereo sound that allows you to hear sound that is synchronizes the direction with the view you see in the VR goggles. It's better than Dolby Atmos.

The reason the resolution is limited is because the video is stretched in all directions so the pixels actually become larger than they were intended to be.

Then as we have been told, the iphoneX uses a special graphics processor that allows the iphoneX to handle Augmented Reality into the Virtual Reality program. This opens up a whole new opportunity of programming, for example, you could make the image smart, such as add hotspots to the image that you can access additional information from the internet. You could add a menu to your video that constantly changes as the video plays. for example, say you were watching a travel documentary and wondered where that video was shot, you could select "Location" in the menu and a map would pop up with a location based on the geo locator meta data in the video. Of course a video editor would need to design all that but in the future, Apps could be added to basic VR editing that adds these tricks in a plug-in module to simplify the editing task.

But before I get too carried away with what the process can do, I want to see that resolution limit fixed so the video in 360VR / AR is the same image quality as UHD.

Currently, the technology has been achieved in the cameras by using 8 4K cameras for 4K to each eye for 3D. But the better VR HMD's only offer 2560 x 1440 for both eyes, which is 1280x720 per eye. Now divide that flat image by pi to approximate the image quality of the VR viewing. That gives us a screen that is 259x230 resolution equivalent. See what I mean? The technology doesn't even exist yet for 16K panels necessary for a true UHD VR Head Mounted Display

 

[harshness]

Then as we have been told, the iphoneX uses a special graphics processor that allows the iphoneX to handle Augmented Reality into the Virtual Reality program. This opens up a whole new opportunity of programming, for example, you could make the image smart, such as add hotspots to the image that you can access additional information from the internet.

There was a demo on the Amiga around 30 years ago that did this. The person in the camera frame was allowed to tap and kick "balloons" around them on the display.

 

[TheForce]

I recall that Amiga demo stuff. But Virtual Reality is a different experience. What is really creepy, IMO, is walking around with the 360VR camera in your hand and viewing the walk on your HMD in 3D and looking at yourself in the environment. If there was ever an out of body experience that is it when you see yourself in 3D inside a virtual world. It looks so real. Seeing yourself in 3D on a flat screen is nowhere near the same.

 

[harshness]

What is really creepy, IMO, is walking around with the 360VR camera in your hand and viewing the walk on your HMD in 3D and looking at yourself in the environment. If there was ever an out of body experience that is it when you see yourself in 3D inside a virtual world. It looks so real. Seeing yourself in 3D on a flat screen is nowhere near the same.

I imagine that excitement would last a few minutes and then I'd be on to the next ride at the amusement park.

I find that the processing delays inherent in modern video gear to be too distracting to give an accurate sensation.

 

[Foxbat]

I find that the processing delays inherent in modern video gear to be too distracting to give an accurate sensation.

I had my first modern VR experience at the Jaguar booth during the 2018 Chicago Auto Show. Using the HTC Vibe headset, Jaguar virtually put you inside the upcoming I-Pace electric crossover. I was impressed how well the Vibe headset was ticking my movements. At one point, I got up (going through the roof of the VR I-Pace) and was able to see the car from the outside. I sat back down and stuck my head out the window, looked around, got back in and checked out the back seat. Like Don mentioned, apparent resolution is not HD but I was more impressed with not getting motion sick from the display. I could not detect any lag in my head movements and the view my brain expected to see.

I did not see the magic behind the scenes (in other words, the graphics workstation driving the HTC) but I expect it was rather beefy.

 

[harshness]

I did not see the magic behind the scenes (in other words, the graphics workstation driving the HTC) but I expect it was rather beefy.

Therein lies the problem. Video processing power requirements in 3D go up perhaps by the cube if not more.

Then again, the human brain is pretty adept at making things look more realistic than they are.

 

[TheForce]

No one commenting on the claim that this Fall, Apple will be offering an iphone X + that will be 25% bigger screen than the X? Depending on the details I may decided this is the one for me. Aside from wanting a screen in true 16x9 AR, I also want 4K native resolution. My Sony has this now and it is truly better than the X. I compared them side by side at the Apple store. I would pay $1500 for these features. I could retire my ipad Air 2 with such a size phone.

 

[navychop]

Well, you just encouraged Apple to jack up the price.

 

[harshness]

It seems more likely that Apple may want to put the iPhone X behind them. There has been talk of three new phones and that perhaps that they would build on the iPhone 8 rather than be changes to the iPhone X.

Don't ever look for Apple to do a normal display resolution from start to finish. While the displays on the Plus models are 1080P, what is displayed is downsampled by 1.15:1 internally (2208x1242).

 

[TheForce]

I would trust what Tim Cook says over all the analysts who have been 100% wrong. Follow Warren Buffet. He just bought 75 million shares and unlike the other Hedge funds, won't be dumping it anytime too soon.

The debate on the screens is color saturation of OLED vs. LED 4K. Based on actual personal experience with 360VR in 4K, I choose the 4K LED. This produces a 1080 x 1080 360VR PER EYE image, the highest in any of the consumer HMD systems including the latest HTC VIVE Pro. Now, if the X+ can also do this at 90 fps refresh rate as opposed to 30, that's even better for games and head tracking without stutter.

 

[navychop]

September.

I doubt we’ll hear what bands are supported before then. I seem to be the only one interested.

The new iPhones will certainly support band 12, which my 6+ does not. But will they support both 66 & 71?

Would that depend upon T-Mobile brib - err, sharing the cost?

 

[harshness]

Follow Warren Buffet. He just bought 75 million shares and unlike the other Hedge funds, won't be dumping it anytime too soon.

That would defy the basic premise of buy low, sell high. Of course Buffett also says that he'll never sell Apple.

Apple stock just took a serious hit (on recurring news of poor sales performance of the iPhone X) and is clawing its way back (based largely on Buffett discounting the iPhone X sales disappointments and his say-so about Apple in general). That's surely a good time to buy; especially if you run a fund that trades a 220,000 a share. The quarterly report also showed that Apple is still printing money and they're raising the dividend. What's not to like?

I quadrupled my money on Commodore stock once so stock performance really isn't an indicator of where things are or where they're going.

A company's stock performance has surprisingly little to do with their individual products (unless they have only a few). Would you buy a Rolex simply because they're the highest valued watch manufacturer? Is every product they make the best in the World?

The debate on the screens is color saturation of OLED vs. LED 4K. Based on actual personal experience with 360VR in 4K, I choose the 4K LED. This produces a 1080 x 1080 360VR PER EYE image, the highest in any of the consumer HMD systems including the latest HTC VIVE Pro. Now, if the X+ can also do this at 90 fps refresh rate as opposed to 30, that's even better for games and head tracking without stutter.

How much market share might such an expensive move garner? The iPhone X is already suffering only fractional market penetration and VR is going to turn that around? Is 90fps necessary? What magic is going to triple the frame rate?

Reasoning what is going to save the iPhoneX is a rather obscure feature that the current phone isn't all that great at isn't reasonable. Reasoning that everything that Warren Buffet has touched has turned to gold simply isn't supported (didn't he predict Apple would hit 400?). Reasoning that Tim Cook decides where the world is going is clearly negated by the fact that more equipment on the planet now uses Android rather than Windows (among all devices with conventional operating systems).

 

[harshness]

I doubt we’ll hear what bands are supported before then. I seem to be the only one interested.

In that we agree.

I suspect the low frequencies will be relatively free of traffic from wireless phones and tablets. It will be much more popular in utility meters, appliances and simple office equipment (i.e. postage meters) if I'm reading my tea leaves right.

 

[TheForce]

That would defy the basic premise of buy low, sell high. Of course Buffett also says that he'll never sell Apple.

I never heard Buffet say he'll never sell Apple, only that he said it makes more money than the #2 money maker in the world by a factor of 2. Buffet sold out of IBM. Who would have thunk it? He now owned 165M shares before and bought 75M more during the first 4 months, that is not all at once so he clearly seeks the dips to buy, just as I do.

Apple stock just took a serious hit (on recurring news of poor sales performance of the iPhone X

As it turns out the news on poor iphone X sales was based on false information by 3rd party chip suppliers. As I recall from the conference call, the opposite was true, that is Apple's iphone X sames were the #1 in the line. The reason why the analyst estimates were so far off the mark was that Apple had built up a large inventory of these same chips and is the reason they reduced deliveries. This goes for all companies who suffer the fake news by analysts. We investors must never take those reports as gospel. They form conclusions from data that may not be relevant. However, the market moves are opportunity for day traders. If you are not a trader but investor, then ride through the gloom and doom negative speculators.

Would you buy a Rolex simply because they're the highest valued watch manufacturer?

I buy Apple watch. But back in my diving days I could afford a Rolex Diver but bought the Seiko instead. Better value.

How much market share might such an expensive move garner? The iPhone X is already suffering only fractional market penetration and VR is going to turn that around? Is 90fps necessary? What magic is going to triple the frame rate?

I don't claim for a second that the high end screen I want nor the high frame rate for the VR gamer is going to put the iphone X+ on top of the entire market. I only claim that's what will sell me on getting one. But if they don't offer that for my budget, then I will just keep the iphone 6+ or if 5G happens, maybe jump to the lower priced iphone#+

Meanwhile, Apple continues to expand into services. A $30B segment of their brand. How many companies can claim their entire business is $30B and growing rapidly?

Here's my dilemma. At $170 a share, my holdings represent 40% of my net worth and that violates the rule of diversity. But, I can't see selling any until the stock goes to 2.5 X my basis.

Android is a good OS for the phone, no doubt. But it still does not have the infrastructure that iphone has. It's getting better but not quite there yet. iphone has many times the soft features that Android has. If Google started selling its Android OS for what it is worth, Samsung would be charging the same prices as Apple.

 

[Foxbat]

One of the reasons Android is everywhere is it is available on the $30 mass-market phones as well as the $900 halo phones. iOS is available on, well, iPhones. Minimum price of admission: $349.

Apple is one of the most, if not the most, profitable companies on Earth. So, yeah, they're doing it all wrong...

 

[Foxbat]

Consumer Reports has analyzed repair costs for the Apple iPhone 8 and Samsung Galaxy S8+ (?) and come up with the following graphic comparing the two:

I have just few a issues with this graphic:

1. Any battery failure on an iPhone 8 would be within the one year warranty, so it should be $0. They seem to be basing this on Apple's $29 iPhone 6/6s Battery Replacement Program costs; it used to be $79.
2. They leave off Home Button repairs, which seem to be a more common complaint than power button or volume button failures. This would include Touch ID failures.
3. The same thing for a broken back glass. That's where you're going to be spending real money if you don't have a protection plan.
4. My favorite, though, is "Broken headphone jack". $83 to repair the non-existent iPhone 8 headphone jack? You can't break what isn't there!

 

[TheForce]

Apple is one of the most, if not the most, profitable companies on Earth.

I'm sure the most profitable in dollar volume on Earth, but not the most profitable in profit margin.