Who will win? HD DVD or Blu-ray?

[teamerickson]

I think it will take off faster then DVD. At the time DVD came out people were still buying VCRs. They needed to record. DVD's didn't do that. We don't buy VCRs now because we have DVRs. Most of the new TVs sold are HDTV. I'm guessing a lot of these people that are buying these new TVs will want to upgrade components. Why buy a regular DVD player for your new HDTV? People will want to watch movies in HD. The new players (BD or HD-DVD) will provide that. I know the price now is pretty high, but they will come down. That's why I think it will take off faster than DVD. This will allow all those HDTV sets (that are way underutilized) to display what they are made for.

 

[Beckhamfam]

I just talked with a Best Buy manager. He said both formats will be offered at Best Buys in the next few months. They will offer several price ranges starting at $399.

 

[nickyct]

I think it will take off faster then DVD. At the time DVD came out people were still buying VCRs. They needed to record. DVD's didn't do that. We don't buy VCRs now because we have DVRs. Most of the new TVs sold are HDTV. I'm guessing a lot of these people that are buying these new TVs will want to upgrade components. Why buy a regular DVD player for your new HDTV? People will want to watch movies in HD. The new players (BD or HD-DVD) will provide that. I know the price now is pretty high, but they will come down. That's why I think it will take off faster than DVD. This will allow all those HDTV sets (that are way underutilized) to display what they are made for.

A lot of poeple are still clueless about HD thing.
One of my co-worker has an Projection HDTV for almost two years and didn't even take advantage of it because she didn't know that it's HD-ready. I told her to bring the manual book in so I can look at it. All she told me was that her TV is Widescreen. After looking at the manual I told her that her set is HD-ready all she has to do is to upgrade her cable to HDpackage. (she can't install dish at her condo). Now she's loving it. she said the picture is so clear.
The other she just bought "Walk the line" DVD in full screen. This is how clueless some poeple are with new technology.

The other co-worker also has Projection HD with tuner built-in already. I told him that just go out and get an antenna. Well, he hasn't done it yet. I think he just simply don't care.

A lot of poeple are just comfortable with what they have. And with the two format going on right now. They are not gonna buy either one of them just yet.
Most people who will buy are gonna be the early adopters who has money.

 

[navychop]

"...Most of the new TVs sold are HDTV. ..."
Not by a long shot.

"...Why buy a regular DVD player for your new HDTV?..."
Because it's a tenth the cost.
They just laid out big bucks and need to recover.
They're clueless.
Or they just use their current DVD player with the HDTV.

Even if a significant percentage of HDTV owners bought an HD-DVD or BR this year, it's still a small number compared to sales of DVD players.

 

[teamerickson]

"...Most of the new TVs sold are HDTV. ..."
Not by a long shot.

Television manufacturers will see a surge in cumulative HDTV sales over the next few years, which will boost the overall market value to $65 bln by 2009, according to Parks Associates. Consumers are growing less skeptical about HDTV, which is creating a gradual increase in demand for high-definition products and services. Nearly 47% of TV households in the US plan to buy an HDTV in the next twelve months. This increase would boost HDTV sales by 30% and HD video services by 38% by the end of 2006.

Sound like a lot of HDTV to me.

I feel with as much advertising about HDTV were seeing it will have a ripple effect. I don't think BDs or HD-DVDs will out sell DVD, but I think they will start faster then the DVD did.

 

[vurbano]

I think it will take off faster then DVD.

IMPOSSIBLE. There is virtually no potential customer base. DVD had as a customer base every consumer that owned a TV.

 

[navychop]

And I think DVDs were one of the fastest, if not THE fastest, selling electronic products after introduction. Accepted much faster than VCRs.

And yes, HDTV sales will continue to grow. But by no means are most new TVs sold today HDTVs. And other digital sets will sell, as well. SD digital TVs may be cheaper enough than HD digital TVs to get a hold on the bottom of the market. Look how well ED plasmas sell/have sold.

 

[007BlackMan]

DVD players were the fastest selling electronic products.

And I think DVDs were one of the fastest, if not THE fastest, selling electronic products after introduction. Accepted much faster than VCRs.

And yes, HDTV sales will continue to grow. But by no means are most new TVs sold today HDTVs. And other digital sets will sell, as well. SD digital TVs may be cheaper enough than HD digital TVs to get a hold on the bottom of the market. Look how well ED plasmas sell/have sold.

I feel HDTV sales will continue to grow in time. But people will still buy cheaper SDTV's. I know a person at work that just spent $150.00 dollers for SD digital TV because there verry cheap. I think your right ED plasmas are selling big time just because they are $500.00 to $1000.00 dollers cheaper then a HD plasmas TV's.

 

[T2k]

But those EDTV plasma owners are usually very proud of their new 'eidg dee tee vee'...

 

[T2k]

And I think DVDs were one of the fastest, if not THE fastest, selling electronic products after introduction. Accepted much faster than VCRs.

It's only happened after early rivaling formats died and DVD became the single standard. Also lets not forget TVs were much more common worldwide in 1998 than 20 years earlier.

 

[rockhard]

There is virtually no potential customer base. DVD had as a customer base every consumer that owned a TV.

That is why HD-DVD which is backwards compatible will make sense for all those DVD consumers. It will allow them to play there DVD library upconverted for their new HDTV's and keep them current for the new HD movies...

 

[teamerickson]

There is virtually no potential customer base. DVD had as a customer base every consumer that owned a TV.

That is why HD-DVD which is backwards compatible will make sense for all those DVD consumers. It will allow them to play there DVD library upconverted for their new HDTV's and keep them current for the new HD movies...

BD is backward compatible, but I want HD DVD to win also.

 

[Ilya]

After 230 votes it's still a tie in our poll!

HD DVD will win! - 78 (33.91%)
Blu-ray Disc will win! - 78 (33.91%)
Both formats will coexist for a long time - 42 (18.26%)
I don't know. - 32 (13.91%) ​

 

[navychop]

I wonder how many of those votes were by very recent members?

 

[rockhard]

BD is backward compatible, but I want HD DVD to win also.

I was under the impression that BDrom was not backwards compatible and could not play red laser DVD's ....

 

[Ilya]

I was under the impression that BDrom was not backwards compatible and could not play red laser DVD's ....

It will depend on particular player. I suspect most of them will be compatible with most of DVD formats. For example, DMP-BD10 the Panasonic player announced earlier this week claims to support "virtually all DVD and CD formats, as well as video and image formats".

 

[Paradox-SJ]

It will depend on particular player. I suspect most of them will be compatible with most of DVD formats. For example, DMP-BD10 the Panasonic player announced earlier this week claims to support "virtually all DVD and CD formats, as well as video and image formats".

Backwards compatability to Joe Six Pack is...Will it play in the player that I have right now?

This will be the largest hurdle for BD to overcome.

I think they are putting to much stock in PS3...Videophiles will not use a game machine for a standalone DVD player...

 

[Ilya]

Backwards compatability to Joe Six Pack is...Will it play in the player that I have right now?

For the first year or two backward compatibility of the disks is irrelevant.
Why would anyone pay $30-40 per title to play it on an SD DVD player?
When the prices come down, combo-disks may start making sense.

The format compatibility of the new players, on the other hand, is very important.
If I am spending hundreds (or even thousands) of dollars on a new player, I want
to make sure that it will play my current DVD collection, not just the new HD disks.

 

[vurbano]

There is virtually no potential customer base. DVD had as a customer base every consumer that owned a TV.

That is why HD-DVD which is backwards compatible will make sense for all those DVD consumers. It will allow them to play there DVD library upconverted for their new HDTV's and keep them current for the new HD movies...

Still no reason for anyone without an HD set to buy it. Whether or not it plays DVD's is irrelevant. Again, there is almost no customer base. No one who doesnt own an HD TV is going to drop 500-800 bucks on this technology. Thats probably more than the cost of the 36" sony trinitron they are watching.

 

[teamerickson]

Still no reason for anyone without an HD set to buy it. Whether or not it plays DVD's is irrelevant. Again, there is almost no customer base. No one who doesnt own an HD TV is going to drop 500-800 bucks on this technology. Thats probably more than the cost of the 36" sony trinitron they are watching.

Television manufacturers will see a surge in cumulative HDTV sales over the next few years, which will boost the overall market value to $65 bln by 2009, according to Parks Associates. Consumers are growing less skeptical about HDTV, which is creating a gradual increase in demand for high-definition products and services. Nearly 47% of TV households in the US plan to buy an HDTV in the next twelve months. This increase would boost HDTV sales by 30% and HD video services by 38% by the end of 2006.

47% of households sounds like a HUGE customer base. I imagine that just like DVD they will offer promotions for an HD DVD when you buy an HDTV.