Who will win? HD DVD or Blu-ray?

[007BlackMan]

I also think it will come down to how much each player cost. If the Blu-Ray DVD players are going to sell for $1,000.00 dollars they better have a better pitcher then HD-DVD players. Because most people are going to buy the less expensive DVD player.

 

[Golgot13]

HD DVD will WIN

It's simple :
- HD DVD player will be cheaper, HD DVD Disk ARE cheap (the DVD manufactory
dont' need to buy very expensive new machine only to adapt the DVD machine
replicator and only change the glass mastering process).
All HD DVD player support iHD, advanced content of HD DVD, so we will have best
interactivity (update HD DVD bonus by the web connection (all player have a
ethernet connector to web connection) menu, playlist, unlock some hide bonus, or
audio streaming (exemple: audio commentary from actor, producer,...) and more (games,.......).
HD DVD specification support 1080p (1920x1080 60p, 50p or 24p) but the player
read it in 1080i (because the first specification of HDMI don't support it, we need to wait new chipset which support HDMI 1.3 may be in summer for HD DVD player).

- BD player will BE expensive (minimum is 2 more than HD DVD player), the BD Disk ARE expensive (the manufactory need to buy new machines, very expensive and test it).
All BD player, NOW, don't support BD-J (because is NOT finalized), no advance interactivity!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BD specification support only 1080i (NO 1080p), so why when need 50Go in a disk
if can not have the best possible quality.
Maybe because all movie will use MPEG2 codec :devil:


SONY want to make the same confict between VHS and Betamax in 80's(or 2000's DVD Audio and SACD) winner VHS (but between DVD Audio and SACD, the winner is MP3 player :devil: .........)

Golgot13
marjolai@caramail.com

 

[navychop]

Much of the preceeding statements are statements of belief, not fact.

 

[Paradox-SJ]

Am I the only one who things bonus material and interactive content on DVD is a waste of space?

An HD DVD does not need 50mb of space...so what do you think all that extra space will be used for?

Marketing crap...previes I do not want to see...and more marketing crap....

 

[samatha6]

Am I the only one who things bonus material and interactive content on DVD is a waste of space?

An HD DVD does not need 50mb of space...so what do you think all that extra space will be used for?

Marketing crap...previes I do not want to see...and more marketing crap....

I agree. There is nothing worse then those DVD's that force you to watch trailers, FBI warnings, etc.... every single time before you can just watch the movie. But you can be sure they will add tons of crap to rationalize their high price points for the early HD DVD's. If anything, they will add even more extra's, to defend why HD DVD discs will cost more. It will be more a marketing tactic then anything else since I am sure far less people will actually wade through that extra content then will.

On the other hand, if those HD trailers are actually in HD, I am sure the early adopters will appreciate the extra footage since HD content on HD DVD will be extremely limited initially. But once HD DVD becomes more mainstream, I think it will be more of an annoyance then anything else.. At least it would be for me. Just give me the FBI warning and start the movie!

 

[navychop]

No, skip the FBI warning too.

 

[samatha6]

No, skip the FBI warning too.

Or at least have the ability to hit the next button.. I mean is it really necessary for us to read the FBI warning 10 million times? I think we all have that memorized by now.

I think the worst case is when they force trailers as well without the ability to hit the next button.. I think Disney has been guilty of that one many times.

DVD HD with mpeg 4 will have more then enough space for HD movies.. Now as for storage on data discs, I think Blue Rays extra capacity will be used by many companies/users. The only thing that worries me is BR reliability. The specs on BR are much tighter and it is more difficult to manufacture for sure. Cost is going to be a huge driving factor. It will cost more to manufacture software for BR and more capital will be needed to build new lines.. Whereas tratitional assembly lines for DVD can be converted over with minimal expense for HD DVD. Unfortunatley, I see both formats co-existing for a long time.. I see BR existing for even longer as a data storage solution.. even if it fails in the HD movie sector. Sony is a large enough company to keep that format alive by itself for a long time. They have alot of ego and money invested in that format.. I personally hope they bomb. Thanks to rootkits, altrac, and memory sticks.. I don't trust them and I feel that their forms of DRM may infringe on the users privacy rights. Like it did with the rootkit mess. I think there are multiple lawsuits still pending on their rootkit CD's.

 

[rockhard]

Much of the preceeding statements are statements of belief, not fact.

And when they become facts it will be due to the beliefs of the average consumer in the cheaper product with the " can't see the difference " in quality that will prevail ...

 

[samatha6]

And when they become facts it will be due to the beliefs of the average consumer in the cheaper product with the " can't see the difference " in quality that will prevail ...

I guess at this point its everything that is in print about BR or HD DVD.. no real hardware to compare with yet for reviewers. Although one must think about why Sony keeps delaying PS3. Some ("beliefs") think its due to manufacturing issues with BR. From the little technical info I have read, BR will be more of a challenge to manufacture with tighter specs. Whereas HD DVD basically is changing the bumps on the discs and is essentially the same technology as regular DVD's which are basically just a commodity product at this point. IMHO, BR will have to compete with a product, HD DVD, that incorporates years of tried and trued technology. I am not saying that BR is not superior, it may very well be.. But in this market, BR will have to be price competitive with HD DVD as well.. Because in the end, the one that sells for cheap at wally world will win. Sony and others will have to quickly overcome any and all costs disadvantages of BR for it to succeed. Two things are for certain, early adopters will not determine the winners. And if ICT is widely used, High Definition players will take far longer in replacing existing DVD technology.

I think Sony will get a bunch of BR machines to market with PS3, but I also think it won't be long before HD DVD comes out with 100 dollar stand alone HD DVD players. Also, PS3 will need to have all the right outputs for audio/video to be at par with any HD DVD stand alone. If what they say is true, that HD DVD is tied closely to DVD in technology, with only the amount of "bumps" on the discs, then I don't see why we can't see cheap HD DVD players. BR on the other hand, is a completely new technology. Logic tells me that Sony and other manufacturers will have a battle to keep BR costs down in standalones and software.

 

[vurbano]

.....I also think it won't be long before HD DVD comes out with 100 dollar stand alone HD DVD players.

3 years and it will be 200 dollars. Maybe 5 or 7 years, you have to have a large number of people with HDTV's first to create a demand and we are a small group!. This thing will be a novelty for a long time. And the more I think about it that could be an advantage for Blu Ray. There will be no overnight winner, which gives Blu Ray the time it needs to develop and figure out how to cut its costs. Remember when the VCR came out all you needed was any kind of Tv set and everyone had one. It had a HUGEEEEEEEE potential customer base, while we have a Tiny one. Prices will not fall as fast.

 

[007BlackMan]

Vurbano i think your right most people don't have HDTV's It's going to take years be for we have a HD-DVD or Blu-Ray winner. I talk to people about HDTV's and HD-DVD's every day and they could care less about them. Some of them say the only way they are going to buy a HDTV is if the price comes down way down.

 

[navychop]

Yep. This is one time that first to market may not mean much.

 

[T2k]

Can we do a poll on how many people actually read a series of posts like T2k's on page 2 that takes up nearly an entire page of the thread?

I bet a lot more than your empty ones...

 

[T2k]

Actually I do. I like to see his opinions. Some things he says are factual, but like I said earlier I see a lot of opinion and shooting down of others when he has ni f****** clue what will happen either way just as none of us know.

Well just because you don't have or you're unable to make the distinction between empty promises and reality, that doersn't mean everybody else is also clueless...

He thinks he's doing something by dissecting everyones posts and marking it up.

Exactly. This is the only way to get straight answers without being melted into some soft-empty-chichat post.

 

[T2k]

That is the most astute thing you have ever said Vurbano. Spot on. What did he post? I zipped past the very very long post.

Of course. Reading and thinking is painful, isn't it?

I have yet to see any meaningful post from vurbano or other "critics"...

Contrary to this let me remind everybody that I was pretty much alone even as late as early this year when I kept saying no Blu-Ray and no PS3 are possible before Summer/Fall. Of course, I also explained numerous times why I thought it's obvious - voila, I was right on both counts.

 

[T2k]

Back on topic: as I wrote somewhere earlier, I'm not sure about we'll ever have a clear winner. I'm expecting that both formats will be outdated within few years, due to the arrival of huge capacity holographic media (ie HVD format).
Holo storage is dirt cheap and flexible - it scales from a memory stick duo pro-like card with tens of gigabytes to CD/DVD-sized disc with a terabyte capacity...

PS: EETimes subs should remember to the cover story from few weeks ago...

 

[nickyct]

3 years and it will be 200 dollars. Maybe 5 or 7 years, you have to have a large number of people with HDTV's first to create a demand and we are a small group!. This thing will be a novelty for a long time. And the more I think about it that could be an advantage for Blu Ray. There will be no overnight winner, which gives Blu Ray the time it needs to develop and figure out how to cut its costs. Remember when the VCR came out all you needed was any kind of Tv set and everyone had one. It had a HUGEEEEEEEE potential customer base, while we have a Tiny one. Prices will not fall as fast.

I also agree with that.
DVD became sucessful much faster becasue we can just plug in our TV and play.
Poeple want the DVD so much they even buy the RF converter for those who don't have RCA jack and S-video input in the back of their TV.

Most poeple will hold out to buy the HD set first before they buy the player. I don't think neither format will take off as fast as DVD did.

 

[007BlackMan]

Nickyct your right most people will buy the HDTV first. Then maybe they will buy a HD-DVD player or Blu-Ray player. I too don't think this new format will take off as fast as people might think.

 

[teamerickson]

Most poeple will hold out to buy the HD set first before they buy the player. I don't think neither format will take off as fast as DVD did.

I think this could take off fast bacause so many people are starved for HD content.

 

[navychop]

So many?

Only about 10% of homes have HDTVs, and IIRC, less than half of those have any HD source. Seemingly, they don't care, are happy with current DVDs on the sets, or think because they bought an HDTV, they're getting HD already.

So you're talking a total potential market of maybe 5% of households, somewhere around 5 million homes. These are products for the coming increase in HD households, and we are the beta testers for them to get their products right, before the mass market materializes.

WE may be starved for HD content, but most folks aren't like us. Anyway, I'm not so starved- got my upgrade completed to Dish Gold last night.