So, which side are you on?

[ronjohn]

Do you think J6P cares that his movie uses up 60% or 90% of the available space on the disc?

When the average buyer perceives PQ is the same, he/she will look at price, features, available titles, ease of use and connection, and maybe a few other factors. PQ might not even be at the top of the list. And when he sees Disney releases are only on Blu-ray ..........

I would say that the reasons you gave will not really come into play either. The average consumer will not have any idea what features, connections, etc are available. Many will purchase a player and connect it with a composite cable to an SD tv set. I think that the price point will have to get very low (maybe less than $200 or even less), then something unforseen will happen, such as Paula Abdul in a drunken slumber talking about her new XXX player and how good it looks. If you talk to average consumers about available space, Universal only HDDVD, Disney only Blu-Ray, PQ, Menu Features, or whatever they are going to be turned off and wait longer to purchase anything.

 

[navychop]

Why would anyone spend that kind of money on an HD player and hook it up via composite to an SD TV? Early buyers spending the big bucks will likely look over their options and be at least a bit informed.

I really think someone considering buying an HD player this summer will go into the store, look over what movies are available, see that most are for Blu-ray, and then pick a Blu-ray player. But even that presumes some knowledge is acquired. Most people today probably don't even know there are 2 formats and not every movie is available in both formats. But people actually plunking down hundreds of dollars will likely learn about this before the cash register rings.

We may or may not correctly understand the reasons, but Blu-ray discs are now outselling HD-DVD discs 3 to 1. SOMETHING is getting people to choose Blu-ray over HD-DVD, and to choose to actually buy.

 

[teamerickson]

We may or may not correctly understand the reasons, but Blu-ray discs are now outselling HD-DVD discs 3 to 1. SOMETHING is getting people to choose Blu-ray over HD-DVD, and to choose to actually buy.

I'm guessing it's because they have a lot more players. I hope they put out some stats on average disc purchased per player. I think the HD DVD people will be higher because those players were bought with movie playing in mind and not games.

 

[ronjohn]

Why would anyone spend that kind of money on an HD player and hook it up via composite to an SD TV? Early buyers spending the big bucks will likely look over their options and be at least a bit informed.

We are talking about average consumers who will actually decide the format that wins. They are not going to spend many hundreds for an HD player period. They might spend $200, and when the prices get below $100 they will definately purchase one and connect it composite to an SD TV. My whole point is that those are the consumers that will make the final decision. They don't know about any technical aspects or studio arrangements. The only thing they will know is that when they walk into Wally World and see a sign that says "Price Break was $148.98 not $118.56", they will buy it. They won't know how to connect to the tv. They won't be able to tell that they are not watching HiDef. They will probably use it to play normal DVDs for a long time before they purchase a HiDef disk. They will decide based on factors that no-one knows, which are unrelated to any technical aspects of either format.

 

[ronjohn]

I'm guessing it's because they have a lot more players. I hope they put out some stats on average disc purchased per player. I think the HD DVD people will be higher because those players were bought with movie playing in mind and not games.

But in the arena of which format will win, does it matter how many disks are purchased per player? If people are watching on a PS3, and show the movies to their friends, the friend will know how a Blu-Ray looks and feels. They could then be comfortable with that format and not the other. I still don't think that any current indicator can really predict or point in the direction of a format winner. Discounting the game systems, ther are maybe a couple of hundred thousand players. Counting the systems there are less than 2 million. When there is a winner, it will be apparent to everyone except a few with an almost fetish like affinity for the losing format.

 

[navychop]

We are talking about average consumers who will actually decide the format that wins. They are not going to spend many hundreds for an HD player period. They might spend $200, ....

The war won't last that long. It's beginning to look like it will be decided this year. The Chinese cheapies will not likely appear in quantity before next year. And who doesn't expect Chinese cheapies in both formats?

The people buying this summer will be dropping $500, even $1,000 or more for some of the more advanced players- of both formats. These are the kinds of people that will have at least some minimum of knowledge before spending. THESE are the ones to set up "who wins."

 

[navychop]

But in the arena of which format will win, does it matter how many disks are purchased per player? ....

Not much. What matters is the absolute numbers on how many titles are sold and how many players are sold.

.... I still don't think that any current indicator can really predict or point in the direction of a format winner.....

Current indicators may show the beginning of a trend. Or may be misleading. So I agree with you on this one. But if those indicators continue like this for 3 months, 6 months..... Well, then, as you say, it becomes apparent.

....When there is a winner, it will be apparent to everyone except a few with an almost fetish like affinity for the losing format.

Yep. Too early to say for sure now. But we can say for sure it's beginning to look like a run up for Blu-ray, increasing it's sales gap over HD-DVD. That's got to continue and accelerate to truly decide the matter. Speaking of "fetish like affinity" - let us keep in mind how many people still keep insisting CRTs are "the best" and come up with various conspiracy theories as to why the market is passing them by. Surely the losing format will keep a few adherents.

 

[ronjohn]

The people buying this summer will be dropping $500, even $1,000 or more for some of the more advanced players- of both formats. These are the kinds of people that will have at least some minimum of knowledge before spending. THESE are the ones to set up "who wins."

I respectfully disagree. There will be people purchasing players of both formats for high dollars this summer. These people will be looking at features and making decisions based on features. Stand alone players may reach 500-600 thousand. However, when the masses begin to purchase players, they will not have the background to understand the pros and cons of each side. If you tell them that Blu-Ray has more capacity, they will understand, but they will not have a clue as to what you can do with more space, or if it will be needed. If you tell them that HDDVDs are cheaper to produce, they won't care. The only price they will care about is the retail price at the store.

If one format or the other started mass producing cheap chinese models fot $50 right now, that format would win. I does not matter which technology is better. It only matters what the average consumer will buy. If anyone here knows for sure what will drive the average consumer to buy a format, they need to stop reading forums and charge Sony or Toshiba a lot of money to make it happen.

Edit: That last comment was not directed at you Navy, or anyone else specifically. It sounded like I was taking a swipe at you after I read it, and that was not my intent or feeling.

 

[s8ist]

I support HD-DVD as the next generation format. Both formats sport amazing video quality, but the entry-level players are too expensive for Blu-ray (speaking strictly from the home theater aspect and not from the 'gamer' market) As it stands, the overall experience from HD-DVD is superior, implementation of extras is impressive, and the price point is more advantageous to earlier adopters. Does this mean that HDDVD will win? Probably not. Because of brand loyalty and aggressive advertising, Sony will probably win the war. Of all the alleged superior benefits of Blu-Ray as the next HD video format, none of them are very significant. More space appeals to computer and videogame enthusiasts, but it's easy to see that a behemoth like King Kong can fit on HDDVD without a trace of quality degradation. It will be sad to see that most of this war will be won out of the ignorance of the consumer, preachy salesmen of the Blu-ray cult, and a colossal advertising campaign (I have yet to see ONE HD-DVD add!) I want HD-DVD to win, but it won't. When we all are forced to shell out more cash for the next format, you can thank the Blu-ray cult members that work at Best Buy, and thank Toshiba too for not spending more advertising dollars.

 

[navychop]

ronjohn:

I think we'll just agree to disagree. You seem to believe the war will continue until cheap players are available. This might well happen. I try not to underestimate Sony's ability to do something stupid. But even if it lasts that long, surely cheap BD players will come out also. So cheap does not alone guarantee an HD-DVD victory.

I have come to believe the war will be over before the $100 or $200 players become common. I've read one estimate in the press that it will be 2009 before $200 players become available. I've also read in the press where China was expected to ship sub $200 players around the end of the year. And watched that change in the forums to "sub $100" and the shipping date moved up to mid 2007. I'm sure those estimates would be a surprise to the folks in China who are supposed to make these. Sounds about as reliable as rumors before Xmas that Disney was going to adopt HD-DVD.

I certainly don't know which format will win, if either. But I do note that the momentum seems to be moving in Blu-ray's favor. And it's fun to speculate.

 

[vurbano]

ronjohn:

I think we'll just agree to disagree. You seem to believe the war will continue until cheap players are available. This might well happen. I try not to underestimate Sony's ability to do something stupid. But even if it lasts that long, surely cheap BD players will come out also. So cheap does not alone guarantee an HD-DVD victory.

I have come to believe the war will be over before the $100 or $200 players become common. I've read one estimate in the press that it will be 2009 before $200 players become available. I've also read in the press where China was expected to ship sub $200 players around the end of the year. And watched that change in the forums to "sub $100" and the shipping date moved up to mid 2007. I'm sure those estimates would be a surprise to the folks in China who are supposed to make these. Sounds about as reliable as rumors before Xmas that Disney was going to adopt HD-DVD.

I certainly don't know which format will win, if either. But I do note that the momentum seems to be moving in Blu-ray's favor. And it's fun to speculate.

I have never heard of sub $100 dollar HD DVD stand alone players. I have heard of 300-400 dollar ones though. Do you have a link for this announcement?

 

[ronjohn]

ronjohn:

I think we'll just agree to disagree. You seem to believe the war will continue until cheap players are available. This might well happen. I try not to underestimate Sony's ability to do something stupid. But even if it lasts that long, surely cheap BD players will come out also. So cheap does not alone guarantee an HD-DVD victory.

I have come to believe the war will be over before the $100 or $200 players become common. I've read one estimate in the press that it will be 2009 before $200 players become available. I've also read in the press where China was expected to ship sub $200 players around the end of the year. And watched that change in the forums to "sub $100" and the shipping date moved up to mid 2007. I'm sure those estimates would be a surprise to the folks in China who are supposed to make these. Sounds about as reliable as rumors before Xmas that Disney was going to adopt HD-DVD.

I certainly don't know which format will win, if either. But I do note that the momentum seems to be moving in Blu-ray's favor. And it's fun to speculate.

I agree with you that it is fun to speculate. My only gripe is that there are some here that state things as if the speculation is die hard fact, and will come to pass, BD and HDDVD. From the things you have posted, I do read it as speculation, and I don't see you as having an extreme affinity with Blu-Ray. I have a PS3 and watch Blu-Ray movies on it. I do not have an HDDVD player, stand alone or Xbox. So I guess you could say I'm a BD supporter, but in the end it won't really matter as long as I can watch HiDef movies.

 

[navychop]

I have never heard of sub $100 dollar HD DVD stand alone players. I have heard of 300-400 dollar ones though. Do you have a link for this announcement?

I was referring to forum posts, certainly not anyone actually selling such a thing. I doubt we'll see high def DVD players that cheap for many years- if ever.

 

[GeorgeLV]

More space appeals to computer and videogame enthusiasts, but it's easy to see that a behemoth like King Kong can fit on HDDVD without a trace of quality degradation.

Hmm, I'd disagree. The lack of a lossless audio track on King Kong is more than a trace of quality degradation to me.

 

[tonyp56]

I voted neutral, the reason? Well, let me explain.

I believe the fighting between the two camps has hurt any real chance of either being successful. My belief is that they both will die, neither of them being able to grab enough support to really take off.

This is a niche market, only those that are the type that must have the latest greatest thing will go out and spend $200-$1000+ for a player that plays disc that may or may not end up being the format that people buy in 2-3 years. Considering I know several people (I'd guess a majority of those that I know personally) that don't own a HDTV, what would make them want to buy Blu-Ray or HD-DVD player for that much money?

So, between the two formats, there is only a small amount of demand, and when you divide that demand by two, well there isn't much ground for either to take, in this so called war. Not to mention, just by having two formats, you push people that would run out and buy a HD DVD player--myself included--away (I have 0 interest in either right now).

So while Sony Pictures et. al. continue to only back Blu-Ray, and Universal continues to only back HD-DVD--which cuts the demand even further btw--neither camp/format will be able to get enough market share to push the other out of the market, and the fighting or war if you'd like will continue. I ask this, what do you want, the "War" or a readily available and cost effective HD video player?

 

[KE4EST]

I support Blu-ray. However it doesn't look like they are going to win the war.

 

[hpman247]

I support Blu-ray. However it doesn't look like they are going to win the war.

acutally, do some reading. BD is doing very very well now

 

[Mr.Pinkeye]

It's more important to me that one format wins soon than who it is. Once one format becomes standard and really wins the battle, all the studios will produce in that format. Guaranteed. And all those movies that have all been released will be re-released in the new format.

 

[teamerickson]

acutally, do some reading. BD is doing very very well now

 

[vurbano]

I was referring to forum posts, certainly not anyone actually selling such a thing. I doubt we'll see high def DVD players that cheap for many years- if ever.

I would not refer to wild speculation in my posts.