Let's face it...life is not fair and the MVP is a popularity contest. Manning is going to win this year and there is nothing that can be said or done to prevent it. Heck, Detroit's Johnson set a single season reception record surpassing Jerry Rice...and I don't believe he is even being mentioned in the Top 10 candidates.
If AP didn't crack 2k yards and the Vikings missed the playoffs I think CJ would get OPOY. I expect he'll get a few votes, probably from any voters that try and give some love to all three, something like AP comeback player, CJ offensive player and Manning MVP.
MVP is generally also tied to team accomplishments, of which the Lions had few.
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