What's the breakdown on HFA in the past ten years as far as those two teams making it to the WS?
Not counting WS because they are different leagues and best record does not determine HFA
2012
Round 1 HFA teams won 1 series and lost 3
Round 2 HFA teams won 0 series and lost 2
Worse records head to head won the series 5 to 1
2011
Round 1 HFA teams won 2 and lost 2
Round 2 HFA teams won 1 and lost 1
This season was a tie
2010
Round 1 HFA teams won 2 and lost 2
Round 2 HFA teams won 0 and lost 2
2 to 4 in favor of worse record
2009
Round 1 HFA teams won 4 and lost 0
Round 2 HFA teams won 1 and lost 1
5 to 1 in favor of HFA
2008
Round 1 HFA won 2 and lost 2
Round 2 HFA won 2 and lost 0
4 to 2 in favor of HFA
2007
Round 1 HFA won 3 and lost 1
Round 2 HFA won 1 and lost 1
4 to 2 in favor of HFA
2006
Round 1 HFA teams won 1 and lost 3
Round 2 HFA teams won 0 and lost 2
5 to 1 in favor of worse record team
2005
Round 1 HFA teams won 3 and lost 1
Round 2 HFA teams won 1 and lost 1
4 to 2 in favor of HFA
2004
Round 1 HFA won 2 and lost 2
Round 2 HFA won 1 and lost 1
Tie
2003
Round 1 HFA won 3 and lost 1
Round 2 HFA won 1 and lost 1
4 to 2 HFA
So out of 60 series played it is a statistical tie, 31 series wins for HFA teams and 29 series wins for the team without HFA (only 1 series difference out of 60.)
As far as making it to the WS. I did not look at which seat went, but just comparing round 2 only, the team without HFA has an edge of 12 series to 8, which is much more significant. Meaning at least 12 of 20 times the team without the best record in the second round did not go to the WS.
Just on pure chance alone any team in the first round has a 25% chance of going to the WS since there are 4 of them. I would have to see how many #1 seats made it to the WS. It will have to be statistically more than 25% of the #1 seats going to the WS to show that HFA helps. I'll do that later when I get a chance.
Like I said and like stats have shown over the decades, HFA is not that important in baseball.
