The Red Sox have now signed a below average first baseman to go along with the below average outfielder and below average catcher they acquired earlier. Napoli hit .224 last year with Saltalamacchia-like power. Yeah, he has a good on-base percentage. That's a big plus for your #1 and #2 hitters, but if your first baseman hits .220 with one more walk a week than the league average, how many games will that spot in the batting order win for you?
The Sox still need another corner outfielder and a shortstop. In fact, they need two corner outfielders because Gomes is only a platoon player. They traded Aviles for a manager. While their manager was a better hitter than Inglesis is or ever will be, he won't be taking those at-bats.
Their third starter will be John Lackey and their fifth starter, if the season opened today, would be Morales or Tazawa. Bailey who failed miserably at closer in his return, would be the closer again, and he will be set up by two guys whose ERAs approached infinity: Bard and Melancon.
The Sox have enough money to give Hamilton $30 million a year for two years, but why do I think the Angels or Dodgers will make a better offer? Because the Dodgers willingly pay a lot more than that for Crawford and Gonzales and the Angels are going to pay Pujols the last hundred million dollars of his contract when he is in a wheel chair.
I see the Red Sox giving Ross three years and buying a middle of the rotation starter for the kind of price that they have promised they won't pay. Beckett has two years at $15 million left. I expect the Red Sox to have to pay that much for another Beckett-grade starter, because that is the market price for starting pitching. The Red Sox could very well finish last in their division again.
