FaxUpdate April 1, 2005: VOOM Shutdown Could Be Announced As Early As Today

[mike123abc]

The carrying capacity of AMC-6 (R-2) is much more than R-1 on an CONUS basis. VOOM has 11 TPs that it owns and 2 TPs on loan on 61.5.

Currently VOOM is running 13 transponders using 8PSK modulation, 22 million symbols a second with 5/6 forward error correction code and 188/204 RL error correction (see www.lyngsat.com). This makes each TP carry 22 *3 *5 /6 *188 / 204 or 50.68 mbit/sec. 50.68 Mbit/sec * 13 TPs is a total of 658.84 Mbit/sec total carrying capacity for VOOM on 61.5.

Echostar is running 105 (low power) at a symbol rate of 26 million, 2/3 FEC and 188/204 RL. One could argue that R-2 could probably do 3/4 FEC since it is 2x the power of 105 (E* runs some TPs at 5/6 on 121). Lets assume 3/4 FEC and 8PSK. So, R-2 would be 26 *3 *3 /4 *188 /204 or 53.91 Mbit/sec/TP. 16 * 53.91 = 862.56. This is a little more than 200 Mbit/sec more capacity on R-2 than R-1. This would increase VOOM's capacity 31%. Remember this is only 16 of the 24 TPs on R-2. It would be possible for them to gain 50% more TPs when they want.

Ok, the math does not make sense right now. R-2 has a lot more capacity than R-1. Assuming about 40k subs to switch to R-2 even at $300/sub to switch would be 12 million. Rental on R-2 appears to be about $10 million per year for the 16TPs (guess based on note 13 in CVC annual reports). In a 15 year scenero VOOM would spend $162 million on rental and conversio costs. This is less than R-1 cost E*. Plus you get to pay the money over time vs up front cost of buying a satellite.

So, why would Dolan Sr be so upset about the sale of R-1 to E* since it would be cheaper and he would get to carry more channels using R-2. Remember also this is BEFORE MPEG-4 being considered. Well there is one thing that R-1 can do that R-2 cannot do... that is spot beams. Perhaps Dolan Sr. wants to start LIL service into the spots on R-1. This is the only reason I can think of why he would want R-1 at this time. This probably happens to be the reason E* wants R-1.

 

[Richard Fuller]

My thoughts are Charles could switch us all over to Rainbow 2 and probably keep all the channels that we have now....but he is worried about when later this year Directv and Dish's new satelites go live....this would probably give them the space necassary to catch and pass the amount of HD that we have currently and if that happens then we wouldn't be the HD leader anymore and the numbers that have been going up for new customers may stop or go the other way....just my thoughts..

 

[rocatman]

Has anyone found the Cablevision/Rainbow DBS letter to the FCC distancing them from the Dolan/Voom LLC comments? Perhaps it hasn't been made public or maybe won't be made public but it certainly would lend credence to the SatBizNews FaxUpdate.

I feel sorry for the gal(s)/guy(s) at Cablevision/Rainbow DBS who have to write up the reply to the Dolan/Voom LLC comments with rationale trying to show the comments are without merit. They basically would have to go against Charles Dolan, their ultimate boss on a matter that he is very passionate about. Definitely a very difficult assignment that could be career limiting.

 

[TheForce]

"I feel sorry for the gal(s)/guy(s) at Cablevision/Rainbow DBS who have to write up the reply "

Don't. That will be written up by a law firm specializing in communications law.

The sat biz fax was quite humorous and really tabloid level sensationalism with it's predictions. Really now, Charles Dolan meeting with Ergan and coming home with his tail between his legs wondering how he will announce to the nation on Monday he has given up after his meeting with Ergan? LOL! These nitwits at sat biz are the likes of ones that Malone was refering to when he said a lot of people lost money betting against Charles Dolan.

Personally, I'm planning on VOOM and have made plans to have a tree cut down to gain a 72 degree orbital slot just so I can do it without moving my dish location to another clear path.

 

[fredfa]

Funny how so often we describejournalists are all "nitwits" (or worse) when they write what we don't like.
Even a cursory reading of Malone's transcript (or his comments about VOOM in the past) shows he has told Dolan again and again that the VOOM concept just is not a good bet. Thus he has declined on numerous occasions to back the venture.
I am sure that if sat biz had made predictions more to your liking, you would not see them as quite a "tabloid level".
In actuality, the more satellite success there is, the better for the sat fax business.
Few, even here, can be rooting quite as hard for VOOM as they are.

 

[James Long]

That's why I can't see why they put in all this effort to petition the FCC to just shut Voom down without waiting for their decision. It seems like that may be a last ditch effort, but if Voom just goes dark before the FCC decides anything, then what was the point?

C Dolan is a true believer. He will do anything he deems nessisary to keep Voom alive. Even if he fails, he will try. That is the point.

If he shuts it down (assuming he has a choice) before the FCC comes to any decision, then he won't really have tried that route. Again, what is the point of that?

C Dolan does not have the final say whether or not Voom will shut down. So far he has been able to delay the shutdown but has not yet gained ownership of the fate of Voom. He made a deal with his board to fund Voom through Mar 31st and the board is under NO obligation to extend that deal.

Probably what you are missing is that there are two 'they' entities. There is the 'they' that refers primarily to C Dolan and his son Tom (the new Voom HD LLC) who believe they can take over Voom and run it as a thriving business. And there is the 'they' that refers to Cablevision, the current owners of the Voom service, that can shut the service down at any time.

C Dolan/Voom HD LLC is doing all it can to keep Voom alive - they are the true believers. But Cablevision holds the real control and can shut down the service despite the true believers.

JL

 

[T2k]

C Dolan does not have the final say whether or not Voom will shut down. So far he has been able to delay the shutdown but has not yet gained ownership of the fate of Voom. He made a deal with his board to fund Voom through Mar 31st and the board is under NO obligation to extend that deal.

Probably what you are missing is that there are two 'they' entities. There is the 'they' that refers primarily to C Dolan and his son Tom (the new Voom HD LLC) who believe they can take over Voom and run it as a thriving business. And there is the 'they' that refers to Cablevision, the current owners of the Voom service, that can shut the service down at any time.

C Dolan/Voom HD LLC is doing all it can to keep Voom alive - they are the true believers. But Cablevision holds the real control and can shut down the service despite the true believers.

JL

Usual Armchair Commander B*llshit - don't be so smart until you don't sit in the boardroom.

As long as he has his 70% on the board too, he can get another extension anytime and almost sure he will - unless this whole story makes no sense.

 

[James Long]

As long as he has his 70% on the board too, he can get another extension anytime and almost sure he will - unless this whole story makes no sense.

The other part of the problem is the financing, which according to the filing C Dolan and Voom HD LLC made to the FCC last Monday is NOT in place.

C Dolan is one man who made the mistake of giving control of his dreams to a board of directors. He cannot just walk in to the boardroom and ask for what he wants and get it. That is the cost of doing business.

don't be so smart until you don't sit in the boardroom.

Double negative ... "do be smart until you do sit in the boardroom" - I'll take that challenge!

JL

 

[David Dietzel]

Michael Eisner survived at Disney for years because he stacked the Disney board with his cronies. I suspect that Charles Dolan will get what he needs from the Cablevision board for awhile at least.

 

[mdonnelly]

Michael Eisner survived at Disney for years because he stacked the Disney board with his cronies. I suspect that Charles Dolan will get what he needs from the Cablevision board for awhile at least.

Nobody's voting to dump Chuckie D. It's the money pit VOOM that CV's board want's to kill.

 

[cidbozek]

I love my voom, but this coaster ride is about to come to an end for me soon! there up, there down, there up, they might shut down today, oh no maybe next week, oh wait we get atleast a month! I do hope it works out, but its getting crazy!

 

[vurbano]

Funny how so often we describejournalists are all "nitwits" (or worse) when they write what we don't like.
Even a cursory reading of Malone's transcript (or his comments about VOOM in the past) shows he has told Dolan again and again that the VOOM concept just is not a good bet. Thus he has declined on numerous occasions to back the venture.
I am sure that if sat biz had made predictions more to your liking, you would not see them as quite a "tabloid level".
In actuality, the more satellite success there is, the better for the sat fax business.
Few, even here, can be rooting quite as hard for VOOM as they are.

Most are nitwits even when hey write positive articles IMO.

 

[TheForce]

"I am sure that if sat biz had made predictions more to your liking, you would not see them as quite a "tabloid level". "

fredfa- Not exactly. If their editorial was just as unrealistic as the statement that CD returned from a meeting with CE ready to throw in the towel in the opposite positive sense- Such as CD met with CE and that is all it took, CE will back out of the deal allowing CD and VOOM HD LLC a clear path to acquire the business from CVC. Then I would also be as doubtful of the statements. Fact is I have come to learn about the very nature of both individuals, CD and CE in the past 2 months and both perform in a predictable character. CE repeats his own legacy and CD won't stop until something unrelated affects his drive to take VOOM to independent status. Today, at his age that can only be his health failing, giving him new priority than VOOM. The part you state that IS true is that I celebrate when there are positive reports and get sad with negatives. Don't forget, I have 3 HDTV services here and I really don't care if my HDTV programming comes from D*, E*, or V* Right now, V* has the best quantity and quality than the other two so it's only natural, I'd be rooting for them. Most negative people here, probably you included, are not true HDTV enthusiasts but place other aspects of DBS in equal importance. One of the favorites of many non-HDTV enthusiasts is receiving local broadcast stations through a paid service rather than free OTA. VOOM does not support that. They only have locals tunable on their equipment with an off air antenna. So not having locals by a satellite delivery is an issue with these types. In my case, I just want a few locals anyway they come in with the best PQ. That would be direct by a 4 mile path of signal without tons of electronics reprocessing the signal. Still others hold the PVR in reverence. Many of those have said they will come on board as soon as the VOOM DVR is out but I doubt many of those will because their next excuse will be it isn't a TIVO, therefore they will stay with DirecTV.

I'm not sure all of the reasons why many want to see VOOM fail but I suspect many are just hateful of successful people, like C Dolan who control and manipulate their world because they can. Rather than mentor these people to add to their own success, they insist on spending their time ridiculing them and predicting their demise. There is a good reason why these people are so successful. They know that success comes packed in "Cans" never in "Cant's"

 

[TheForce]

I love my voom, but this coaster ride is about to come to an end for me soon! there up, there down, there up, they might shut down today, oh no maybe next week, oh wait we get atleast a month! I do hope it works out, but its getting crazy!

If you are having trouble with the emotional flip flop here's a suggestion- Stop reading all these forums and the tabloids in the industry and just spend your time watching what you have. If you are unhappy with your present provider, switch! Just don't buy into the hardware when you switch. You can do that later. Other than that, stop worrying and enjoy the end product.
I promise you, following this advice and you will be a much happier and calmer person.

 

[subdude212]

It appears to me that many Dish and DirecTV subscribers want Voom to fail because they think it proves that they made the right decision when they chose a DBS provider. They want to say, "I'm better than those poor schlubs who thought that Voom startup was going to succeed." Journalists appear to be a different kind of nitwit, motivated by other forces such as money, vengeance, petty grievances, personality disorders, narcotic dependencies, the complete absence of a spine and a tragically small pea of a brain lodged in their heads.

Well, I've reached payback on my Voom investment so whatever happens now I will have had and watched more HD than any other service available to me over the past year and a half. I guess I'm a winner

 

[vurbano]

It appears to me that many Dish and DirecTV subscribers want Voom to fail because they think it proves that they made the right decision when they chose a DBS provider. They want to say, "I'm better than those poor schlubs who thought that Voom startup was going to succeed." Journalists appear to be a different kind of nitwit, motivated by other forces such as money, vengeance, petty grievances, personality disorders, narcotic dependencies, the complete absence of a spine and a tragically small pea of a brain lodged in their heads.

Well, I've reached payback on my Voom investment so whatever happens now I will have had and watched more HD than any other service available to me over the past year and a half. I guess I'm a winner

Congrats subdude. Very good post. I would like to add that if Voom does straighten this out and secure a finance plan for the next couple of years I will purchase one of my recievers as well. When the DVR comes out I will rent it first and then probably buy it later.l

 

[harveystern]

I have dish for the past 9yrs ,yet i'm watching voom news very close.I feel both dish and direct have both become another cable co. When dish first started they were just like voom. harvey

 

[Sean Mota]

It looks like Satbiz makes these predictions very loosely. Here's the previous one were they stated that VOOM was shutting down by 2/6/05

http://www.satelliteguys.us/showthread.php?t=46894

 

[Walter L.]

As I expected, this turned out to be another unfounded rumor. Maybe the only fact that SatBizNews learned was that there was a meeting between Dolan & Ergen and they made up everything else. I think is time to remove the link to this thread from the main VOOM forum page (Latest News).

Like someone posted in another thread, I'm starting to think that SatBizNews is the "Enquirer" of the Sat Biz

 

[Spike]

I really do not think that this is over. How long will it take Mr. Dolan to get that other sat. up in the air? Does anyone know?