So, regardless of which format is better, which format is going to win in the long run? Or will they coexist for a long time without a clear winner? What's your prediction? And why do you think so? Please cast your vote!
Who will win? HD DVD or Blu-ray?
- Thread starter Ilya
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I think HD DVD is going to have the edge because they will have their products to the people first.
The delays in the development of PS3 have hurt Blu-Ray. This isnt an XBOX/PS3 debate over which is better...this is just a statement saying that I think many people were waiting for the PS3 to be an inexpensive Blu-Ray Player. If HD DVDs come out in the spring and summer and PS3 is delayed till next fall or winterl. That will give HD DVD's an edge in the market.
The delays in the development of PS3 have hurt Blu-Ray. This isnt an XBOX/PS3 debate over which is better...this is just a statement saying that I think many people were waiting for the PS3 to be an inexpensive Blu-Ray Player. If HD DVDs come out in the spring and summer and PS3 is delayed till next fall or winterl. That will give HD DVD's an edge in the market.
I disagree. Perhaps in the short run HD DVD make edge ahead but the advantages of Blu-Ray will overtake it and eventually take the lead for good.
HD-DVD allows managed copies to home networks, Blu-Ray doesn't. I hope HD-DVD wins as I want to put all my content onto my home media network, not just on their media (which can get scratched or ruined).
Blu-ray format allows that too. Under pressure from HP and others, Blu-Ray has agreed to support Mandatory Managed Copy too. The controversy, however, is about whether the MMC will include Fox's proprietary DRM which in theory may restrict the portability.sampatterson said:
My prediction is they will co exist with out a clear winner for a long time. To me it's something like Super Audio CD and DVD Audio there isn't a clear winner for that format war.
TDK certainly seems to think BD will be the winner.
I don't like Sony, and avoid buying their products. However, I think the higher capacity BD will win. This is important for computer back up purposes. And BD will likely have burners out first (Pioneer will likely have a PC burner version out by April per CNET). And it supports 1080p- more, I think, of a marketing point that a truly valuable feature. The PS3 certainly can't hurt. Every PS3 will have BD & digital output (DVI/HDMI). The MS Xbox360 does not have digital outputs- best is component. And the HD-DVD drive will be an external option, to be available later.
The cheaper manufacturing facilities for HD-DVD may work against it- it's easier and cheaper for the counterfeiters, too. The manufacturing plant cost difference won't matter long, anyway. Plant costs spread over millions and later billions of unit sales will mean plant cost is a tiny fraction of the sale price.
So HD-DVD may have about a 3 month lead, but it may not be enough. As with so many things, the big buying season for these things is likely to be next Christmas. And by then the PS3s will be flying off the shelves. It will no doubt be a selling point for parents that they can buy the kid a game console that may also have a secondary use as a HD movie player, without having to buy something else.
That incredibly expensive Pioneer BD player will have home networking and other features that may appeal to the high end customer. But most people aren't early adopters. They'll wait until it looks like the dust has begun to settle. Real sales may not materialize until 2007 or 2008, as realization of the impending digital transition hits home, and knowledge of (and ownership of) HDTVs spreads.
Let's hope it's more of a Beta vs VHS battle, which many people remember and resulted in a winner, and not a DVD-Audio vs SACD, which most people have never heard of and few buy.
We'll know soon enough, and be happy either way.
I don't like Sony, and avoid buying their products. However, I think the higher capacity BD will win. This is important for computer back up purposes. And BD will likely have burners out first (Pioneer will likely have a PC burner version out by April per CNET). And it supports 1080p- more, I think, of a marketing point that a truly valuable feature. The PS3 certainly can't hurt. Every PS3 will have BD & digital output (DVI/HDMI). The MS Xbox360 does not have digital outputs- best is component. And the HD-DVD drive will be an external option, to be available later.
The cheaper manufacturing facilities for HD-DVD may work against it- it's easier and cheaper for the counterfeiters, too. The manufacturing plant cost difference won't matter long, anyway. Plant costs spread over millions and later billions of unit sales will mean plant cost is a tiny fraction of the sale price.
So HD-DVD may have about a 3 month lead, but it may not be enough. As with so many things, the big buying season for these things is likely to be next Christmas. And by then the PS3s will be flying off the shelves. It will no doubt be a selling point for parents that they can buy the kid a game console that may also have a secondary use as a HD movie player, without having to buy something else.
That incredibly expensive Pioneer BD player will have home networking and other features that may appeal to the high end customer. But most people aren't early adopters. They'll wait until it looks like the dust has begun to settle. Real sales may not materialize until 2007 or 2008, as realization of the impending digital transition hits home, and knowledge of (and ownership of) HDTVs spreads.
Let's hope it's more of a Beta vs VHS battle, which many people remember and resulted in a winner, and not a DVD-Audio vs SACD, which most people have never heard of and few buy.
We'll know soon enough, and be happy either way.
My prediction is that the "other" format will win, about 2 months after I finally break down and make a decision. I will buy into one technology or the other because it will appear that one of the two formats has a distinct lead. I will invest thousands in the technology. Then, some announcement will be made a month after all of my "satisfaction guarantees" run out and the technology that I thought would lose will become the clear winner and everyone will adopt that "other" technology.
tdillon said:
keep us posted on which technology you buy, so we can all buy the other one
:devil: seriously though, your prediction sounds like my luck at picking the winning technology, man it hurts when your left with useless stuff and I've had tons of it, thank goodness for ebay
Ilya said:
Wrong.
Unlike HD-DVD, Blu-Ray does not have mandatory managed copy. It simply leaves this up to every studio whether they will allow it or not.
T2k said:
11/17/05 Blu-ray adopts mandatory managed copy, but says no to iHD:
"Mandatory managed copy will be part of Blu-ray format..." Blu-ray spokesman Andy Parsons told Reuters.
01/30/06 HP to support HD-DVD high-definition DVD format:“We're encouraged that the Blu-ray Disc Association is adopting Mandatory Managed Copy...” said Maureen Weber, GM-Personal Storage Business, HP.
I have also contacted the Blu-Ray Disc Association earlier today and they confirmed that Mandatory Managed Copy is part of the final specification.navychop said:
This is a common misconception.
Backup is always driven by cost, $/MB - and Blu-Ray would be the most expensive backup solution.
Blu-Ray also offers the least durable medium: its cover measures only 0.1mm versus DVD's and HD-DVD's 0.6mm - I still don't understand why they dropped the cartridge from last Summer...
(well, actually I do: it's already frikkin expensive to manufacture, without an extra cartridge.)
And it will have a $999 price tag, LOL.
It's pretty naive to believe it will have any impact on the market.
Khm, PS3 already hurts, every day.
The cat is out of the bag, everybody knows it's late, waaaaay too late (khm, just as I was expecting since September, when its graphic chip was still MIA, wasn't even taped out yet
)... By now even the most enthusiastic PS fans are perpexled by Sony's really pathetic, fuzzy yakyak about its supposed Blu-Ray decoding - which turned out to be missing -, its obviously slipped release date etc etc.
Too bad it can only play back half of the required 40 Mbps of Blu-Ray...
Couldn't be more wrong: http://www.shopping.com/xPO-Pelican...ire_10_Inch_HDMI_Component_Cable_for_Xbox_360
Which, of course, easily can come with its own digital output, if they want...
ROFL, this is funny. :d So it's better to be as expensive as possible?
Newsflash: it has nothing to do with counterfeiting - once they got their hands on the equipment, they will do it. Cost won't matter IF the demand is there.
Ouch, so where did the "anti-counterfeiting advantage" go suddenly?
You don't seem to know too much about this subject...
Conversion costs: $10K-range of HD-DVD vs million range of Blu-Ray
And these are per line. Your argument doesn't make sense for your apparent favourite Blu-Ray: with its late arrival yet double initial pricetag obviously means much worse adoption rates which means worse ROI, so slower price decre4ase.
Contrary to Blu-Ray, HD-DVD has half the pricetag, arrives at least 3-4 months earlier, which translates to faster adoption rates, driving down the price faster, making Blu-Ray's pricetag to look even more miserable...
You really have to stop reading fairy tales...
You got it quite wrong - totally vica versa.
FYI: HDTVs are here - you can have a 27" HDTV for as little as ~$500! -, only the content is missing. When content arrives, HDTV sales will soar.
Your 2007 and 2008 are totally off - simply funny.
Ummm, another fairly clueless point... FYI: in VHS versus Beta versus VCC2000 battle the worst system ever won: VHS. Why? Because it was cheaper and much faster and widely adopted.
You know, unlike Blu-Ray looks to be doing by next year...
It's hard to believe, to be honest: if you read your post you have to see you're quite biased towards Blu-Ray, ignoring facts, logic, everything...
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Ilya said:
Wow, I must have missed it... in December I read an interview with somebody from Blu-Ray and the person still said it's up to the studios...
Thanks for the info - it's good news, it shows we can push through things if we yell enough... too bad we have to yell at them for this.
If you look at the picture of it you will see that it is an analog component cable!T2k said:
Some sellers on the Internet mislabel that Pelican's cable as an HDMI cable, though in reality it is just a component (analog) cable and has nothing to do with HDMI!
Currently XBox 360 has only analog outputs. Although there have been rumors that Microsoft may add HDMI output in the future, it is not clear whether this is possible with the current hardware. Many believe that it would require a hardware change in the box itself, not just a new cable. So far I haven't seen anything that would prove otherwise.
Ah, yes, T2K. Same argument, same emotional response.
The cable link you refer to appears to convert the component & audio output to HDMI, but doesn't. It plugs into the Xbox360 and outputs analog (mislabeled)- the Xbox360 does not have an HDMI output. Doubtful that any copy management would work thru such a lash up. But then, the Xbox360 really isn't intended for movies. The off board HD-DVD player could include an HDMI output (& make it much more expensive- duplicated video logic), but wouldn't that be a bit awkward- the base unit connects to some TVs, the drive connects to others? Not horrible, just a little odd.
Be careful accusing others of ignoring facts, logic, etc. You'd best look in the mirror. Read the tenor of your own posts. There is no need to be derisive toward others. We simply agree to disagree.
Two competing formats will slow sales. No one wants to be stuck with an orphaned product. At least product moved for Beta & VHS when both were out. Unit sales are dismal for DVD-Audio & SACD. I think HDTV sales are doing just fine- I was referring to sales of HD-DVD and BD players. With most buying occurring near Christmas, most people won't consider either product until then. Most people aren't early adopters and will wait for prices to come down. By then, it'll be interesting to see what player and media prices are. It is perfectly reasonable to expect these players to have a slow sales start- Only a small percent of homes have HDTVs, competing formats, high prices, maybe only a hundred or so movies available in each format in the first few months. And HD content is not missing- DISH offers 25 HD channels, plus there's OTA and most cable customers have this available. But I agree, HD on disc will be -or could be- better.
Your arguments on pricing and BD support for movies and data backup will have real world answers over the next few months. No need to shout from the highlands- by year's end we'll know. BTW, $999 for a backup system for business use is CHEAP. Price out some LTO and large DLT drives and their media. That BD backup system will likely sell quite well.
Like it or not, the PS3 will likely be as big a success as the PS2, if not more so. Late- sure. More time to incorporate the upcoming revisions to HDMI, and other enhancements to make it clearly superior to the Xbox360. Certainly out for the biggest sales period of the year- Christmas.
I'm not happy with the prospect of Sony winning, because I simply hate to buy Sony products, or products where Sony will get royalties. Their DRM Root Kit fiasco was the last straw for me- and I rarely buy CDs or download music. I believe they have become customer-hostile. But I simply state the case why I believe BD will win out. And I'm hardly alone in that camp. Proclamations against BD sound like the originator is unsure and trying to convince himself. The only advantages of the HD-DVD seems to be that it is available sooner- and may be cheaper. Significantly cheaper? We'll compare real world prices near year's end and see how much difference there is to the consumer.
It simply doesn't matter what you or I think, in determining which format "wins." We two are observers; our personal purchases, if any, won't drive the final outcome. No need to get worked up over A vs B, this isn't life or death. By the end of the year, real products at real prices will have been selling and placed in homes and businesses. Real world use will point out any flaws or drawbacks in either product. Hopefully, the whole competition will be over in a couple of years (dare I hope?). And then we can count on a safe buying decision, with no threat of wasted money on an orphaned product hanging over our heads.
And I daresay, BOTH of us will be happy with whichever one wins out.
The cable link you refer to appears to convert the component & audio output to HDMI, but doesn't. It plugs into the Xbox360 and outputs analog (mislabeled)- the Xbox360 does not have an HDMI output. Doubtful that any copy management would work thru such a lash up. But then, the Xbox360 really isn't intended for movies. The off board HD-DVD player could include an HDMI output (& make it much more expensive- duplicated video logic), but wouldn't that be a bit awkward- the base unit connects to some TVs, the drive connects to others? Not horrible, just a little odd.
Be careful accusing others of ignoring facts, logic, etc. You'd best look in the mirror. Read the tenor of your own posts. There is no need to be derisive toward others. We simply agree to disagree.
Two competing formats will slow sales. No one wants to be stuck with an orphaned product. At least product moved for Beta & VHS when both were out. Unit sales are dismal for DVD-Audio & SACD. I think HDTV sales are doing just fine- I was referring to sales of HD-DVD and BD players. With most buying occurring near Christmas, most people won't consider either product until then. Most people aren't early adopters and will wait for prices to come down. By then, it'll be interesting to see what player and media prices are. It is perfectly reasonable to expect these players to have a slow sales start- Only a small percent of homes have HDTVs, competing formats, high prices, maybe only a hundred or so movies available in each format in the first few months. And HD content is not missing- DISH offers 25 HD channels, plus there's OTA and most cable customers have this available. But I agree, HD on disc will be -or could be- better.
Your arguments on pricing and BD support for movies and data backup will have real world answers over the next few months. No need to shout from the highlands- by year's end we'll know. BTW, $999 for a backup system for business use is CHEAP. Price out some LTO and large DLT drives and their media. That BD backup system will likely sell quite well.
Like it or not, the PS3 will likely be as big a success as the PS2, if not more so. Late- sure. More time to incorporate the upcoming revisions to HDMI, and other enhancements to make it clearly superior to the Xbox360. Certainly out for the biggest sales period of the year- Christmas.
I'm not happy with the prospect of Sony winning, because I simply hate to buy Sony products, or products where Sony will get royalties. Their DRM Root Kit fiasco was the last straw for me- and I rarely buy CDs or download music. I believe they have become customer-hostile. But I simply state the case why I believe BD will win out. And I'm hardly alone in that camp. Proclamations against BD sound like the originator is unsure and trying to convince himself. The only advantages of the HD-DVD seems to be that it is available sooner- and may be cheaper. Significantly cheaper? We'll compare real world prices near year's end and see how much difference there is to the consumer.
It simply doesn't matter what you or I think, in determining which format "wins." We two are observers; our personal purchases, if any, won't drive the final outcome. No need to get worked up over A vs B, this isn't life or death. By the end of the year, real products at real prices will have been selling and placed in homes and businesses. Real world use will point out any flaws or drawbacks in either product. Hopefully, the whole competition will be over in a couple of years (dare I hope?). And then we can count on a safe buying decision, with no threat of wasted money on an orphaned product hanging over our heads.
And I daresay, BOTH of us will be happy with whichever one wins out.
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Ilya said:If you look at the picture of it you will see that it is an analog component cable!
Some sellers on the Internet mislabel that Pelican's cable as an HDMI cable, though in reality it is just a component (analog) cable and has nothing to do with HDMI!
Pssst, I was having fun... you ruined my joke.
Or integrating everything into the drive. That's far easier...
navychop said:
Ah, yes, navychop. No arguments, no meaningful answer, only personal comments. What a surprise.
No sh*t... really?
:devil:
Perhaps for you. Since when anything isn't odd on new generation consoles? :devil:
I listed facts. You don't list anything, so unless you can contribute something actually meaningful to this debate, I will continue to ignore these kind of "wisdoms" - I hope you don't mind...
Ummm and what does it prove or disprove from my post?
Two almost unknown technologies, both targeting a very narrow, niche market. Both destined to die, I'm almost 100% sure.
Hardly an analogy...
Hmmm what? I have no idea what are you talking about - there are no HD-DVD or Blu-Ray sales yet whatsoever.
There are preorders for two HD-DVD players and that's it.
That was my point: Blu-Ray not only starts at twice as high as HD-DVD but misses 4 months to subsidize its enormously high intial costs on early adopters.... who's going to pay the bill, what do you think, Sony? Or perhaps Pioneer or TDK?
It's so obvious I thought it doesn't worth to explain...
You gotta be joking... since last fall Dish offers EDTV only and around 80-90-% of the country never heard of Voom channels.
Trust me, Dish is far from being an "HD champion", at least outside of this (and similars like AVS) forum.
The upconverted OTA programming is also a joke - I barely know anybody who has OTA programming and I'm living in NYC for long years (=I know quite a few people).
That's the point: no HD 'momentum' before HD-DVDs.
Ummm pal, did you notice that I called the medium expensive? (Hint: its dimension is capacitry/price, measurement is GB/$...
)"Large" drives? You don't know what are you talking about, right? Drives are the same, there are no 'large' drives and even if there would be, it certainly doesn't effect its pricing.
You're really an outsider here, right?
FYI: I did price them. Blu-Ray is pathetically slow, less durable, small capacity and MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE.
FYI: an LTO2 drive starts at $1000, its 200/400GB rewriteable tape around $40-50 with lifetime warranty and 40-80MB/s speed - so much for your $1000 Blu-Ray drive with the same $40-50 priced, thin discs for backups at 9MB/s...
:devil:
These are facts, as usually.
You have yet to post the first one...
FYI: PS3 will sell well, as every kid knows this - but not because of a Blu-Ray drive but because it's a gaming multimedia console.
Like it or not, you are pulling this - again - out of thin air only.
List your facts as I did - it's really your turn now.
Another thin-air BS.
I posted facts, you're posting your 'prophecies', based on Sony PR crap...Sony is seriuosly behind its own schedule.
You can keep dreaming about "superiority" and such things, sure but the reality is if you read up on the subject - based on the already available Cell-based SDKs -, you'll see quite darker picture: coders say it's "awkward to code for it", unlike X360 which've been praised by even Carmack, naming it as their primary console platform (he only developed in OGL until now), industry noted that its video chip is "very late design", so it's more likely a revamped PC chip design, based on G70 (IIRC Nvidia actually admitted this, although maybe I'm mistaking here); and the manuf is so late that as late as only weeks ago, in January Sony was still unable to showcase a working prototype at CES; its loathed controller's idiotic design is sharply criticized by gamers all around the web, its backward compatibility is only partial etc etc.
I don't like any console. I don't like Xbox, I don't like anything but my top-notch PC for gaming (when I have time for it) but PS3 is clearly losing the momentum, it'll be very expensive for Sony to keep the crown - this time MS came really close to catch up with Sony, in terms of features. Marketing? that's another story, I can't speak for a nonexisting product...
Pfff, this is the classic Sony PR I read everywhere. FYI: new consoles always sell well. PSP came out in March here and I was very lucky to get my hands on it - it was selling like hotcakes here. In EU Sony sued the private importers one by one to keep the US version out of EU until they released it over there in September - when it was, once again, selling like hotcakes.
I'm fully agreeing here - I came along the same way. Sony should be broken then reassess itself and start again every business division. It's a disgusting anti-customer greedy @ss copycat today, nothing else.
And you guys hardly can be taken seriously when you have no idea what are you talking about - see your clearly clueless post about BDA and backup costs.
Proclamations like this really sounds like you are unsure and trying to convince yourself, due to the fact that you are unable to even challenge any of my points, let alone disprove them.
Sooner.
MUCH cheaper.
More durable.
(Anything else I may have left out/ Anybody?
)Yes. $499 is significantly cheaper than $099.
...or we can compare it 3 years from now... or 10 years from now...
? A comparison makes only sense at that given moment.
What's coming by end of 06 is another thing. AHh, you're spoiling the fun.
THE DEBATE. It's much more interesting than the product itself. Well, I dislike Blu-Ray's clearly restrictive, pro-corporation, anti-customer attitude...
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OK- even for a New Yorker, you're rude. You could comment more politely, but I gather what you really want is an opportunity to be rude to others. So I won't bother replying to anything you post anymore. And we'll see if your "faith" in HD-DVD is justified.
Go ahead, if you wish- one more opportunity to trash someone.
Go ahead, if you wish- one more opportunity to trash someone.
