Goalie, I'm glad you're optimistic. But what I'm reading is economists divided into two camps. One camp says recovery is possible in 2010. The other says that's too soon, maybe way too soon.
I'm not a believer in the "Greater Depression" but I foresee no great recovery in 2009. Whether we throw money at the "Big 3" or not, a lot of people in auto manufacturing are going to lose their jobs. Markets always win out. It took 70 years, but Communism went away. Featherbedding, over compensated auto manufacturing jobs gave a great ride for a while, but eventually it could not be sustained, and just resulted in a larger fall. It won't be the catastrophe on a national scale some say, but it will certainly work against near term recovery.
Pilgrim's Pride is in bankruptcy, as are many others. Many, maybe most, will come out reorganized, leaner and meaner. But at least some won't. How many people expect CC to still be a going concern 6 or 12 months from now? Remember Tweeter's? And how many others have recently departed or are on a slippery slope?
The credit crunch is still bringing down companies and individuals. That bailout has solved nothing, at least not in the short term, and according to some economists, may make things worse over the long term.
No, from where I sit in a small business, unemployment is going to continue to grow for some time. Disposable income, and even people's willingness to spend, is going down. It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
So where does all this leave the satcos? Well, I daresay people will view TV as relatively cheap substitute entertainment. They'll downgrade, and some at the lower end will drop off. But some might move theater, restaurant and other luxury monies into satco services. I suspect there will be a decline, but not a major one. Just my guess. We're all on this roller coaster together, and will find out soon enough.
I'm not a believer in the "Greater Depression" but I foresee no great recovery in 2009. Whether we throw money at the "Big 3" or not, a lot of people in auto manufacturing are going to lose their jobs. Markets always win out. It took 70 years, but Communism went away. Featherbedding, over compensated auto manufacturing jobs gave a great ride for a while, but eventually it could not be sustained, and just resulted in a larger fall. It won't be the catastrophe on a national scale some say, but it will certainly work against near term recovery.
Pilgrim's Pride is in bankruptcy, as are many others. Many, maybe most, will come out reorganized, leaner and meaner. But at least some won't. How many people expect CC to still be a going concern 6 or 12 months from now? Remember Tweeter's? And how many others have recently departed or are on a slippery slope?
The credit crunch is still bringing down companies and individuals. That bailout has solved nothing, at least not in the short term, and according to some economists, may make things worse over the long term.
No, from where I sit in a small business, unemployment is going to continue to grow for some time. Disposable income, and even people's willingness to spend, is going down. It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
So where does all this leave the satcos? Well, I daresay people will view TV as relatively cheap substitute entertainment. They'll downgrade, and some at the lower end will drop off. But some might move theater, restaurant and other luxury monies into satco services. I suspect there will be a decline, but not a major one. Just my guess. We're all on this roller coaster together, and will find out soon enough.
