Traditional Providers Losses, 3rd Quarter 2024 Edition

[Bruce]

Altice USA lost 77,000 Video Subscribers.

3rd Quarter is now at 644,000 lost.

Again, last year in the 3rd quarter, Net loss was 465,000.

We still have Dish , Hulu Live, YTTV to report, plus the estimated loss of DirecTV (500,000-1 Million because of ESPN/Disney dispute).

So unless Hulu Live and YTTV have major gains, this year loss might be, roughly, at least a million more then 3rd Quarter 2023.

Altice USA Sheds 77,000 Video Subscribers Amid Third Quarter Revenue Fall

The cable operator, led by Dennis Mathew, has introduced new digital TV packages to target cord-cutters and consumers shifting online.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[Bruce]

Dish lost, roughly, 180,000 Satellite Subscribers , but thanks to Sling’s gains, had a net loss of 43,000.

That is not good news, they lose Satellite Subscribers paying $100-120 a month, traded it in for 145,000 new Sling subscribers paying $40 a month( or less because of the promo special they were running during this time period).

Total lost this quarter-613,000, roughly 150,000 more then 3rd Quarter last year, this is before Hulu Live numbers (Thursday) and the estimated numbers of YTTV and DirecTV.

EchoStar Posts Loss of Dish, Gain of Sling TV Subs in Third Quarter, Raises $5.2B in Fresh Capital

The telecom giant, led by CEO Hamid Akhavan and executive chairman Charlie Ergen, has agreed to be acquired by DirecTV to firm a new pay-TV giant.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[b4pjoe]

Dish lost, roughly, roughly, 100,000 Satellite Subscribers , but thanks to Sling’s gains, had a net loss of 43,000.

That is not good news, they lose Satellite Subscribers paying $100-120 a month, traded it in for 145,000 new Sling subscribers paying $40 a month( or less because of the promo special they were running during this time period).

Total lost this quarter-613,000, roughly 150,000 more then 3rd Quarter last year, this is before Hulu Live numbers (Thursday) and the estimated numbers of YTTV and DirecTV.

EchoStar Posts Loss of Dish, Gain of Sling TV Subs in Third Quarter, Raises $5.2B in Fresh Capital

The telecom giant, led by CEO Hamid Akhavan and executive chairman Charlie Ergen, has agreed to be acquired by DirecTV to firm a new pay-TV giant.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

I wonder how many of those 145,000 new Sling subscribers were DIRECTV customers subscribing to the deals they were promoting during the Disney dispute just to get ESPN and that have by now already dropped the service?

 

[Bruce]

I wonder how many of those 145,000 new Sling subscribers were DIRECTV customers subscribing to the deals they were promoting during the Disney dispute just to get ESPN and that have by now already dropped the service?

We will find out in the 4th quarter, but I believe the majority of them.

 

[Bruce]

Total lost this quarter-613,000, roughly 150,000 more then 3rd Quarter last year, this is before Hulu Live numbers (Thursday) and the estimated numbers of YTTV and DirecTV.

Hulu Live gained 200,000

How many of those are due to the DirecTV dispute with Disney/ESPN, I have no idea, need 4th Quarter numbers for better analysis.

The estimated numbers for DirecTV are a million lost, 500,000 normal + a additional 500,000 due to the dispute, but some of those could come back.

The Fitch Ratings report on DirecTV is usually released in January, so they will have a accurate report on DirecTV.

They are now saying YTTV gained, estimated, 500,000, some due to the dispute of course

So with that, -963,000 that have left paid Live TV, about a 500,000 increase over 3rd Quarter 2023.

 

[MartyDe]

I am currently testing Hulu live based on their $60 per month offer, for three months. So far pretty good. I'll be in the next quarter report.

 

[Bruce]

I am currently testing Hulu live based on their $60 per month offer, for three months. So far pretty good. I'll be in the next quarter report.

Obviously for a plus for Hulu Live.

What provider did you leave?

 

[MartyDe]

Obviously for a plus for Hulu Live.

What provider did you leave?

Cox cable

 

[Bruce]

Cox cable

ewww.

 

[MartyDe]

ewww.

I have to say over the many years they have been pretty good when I compare them with comments in my area about other companies. Technically very good, and reliable. Only bad comment is they really can't do phones in all of their areas. Gremlins get into the phone area of the spectrum they use. Price? we all know about that.

 

[Bruce]

And it looks like Comcast wants to get rid of the Cable Channels (USA, SyFy, etc), probably before it affects the value of the company, as it did with Warner to the amount of $10 Billion to the negative.

That was fast, expecting early next year, hate being out of the loop-

NBCUniversal Split: Comcast To Spin Off Cable Channels Under Mark Lazarus; Donna Langley Consolidates Power, NBC, Peacock & Bravo Stay Put

Donna Langley is in the NBCU driver's seat as the Comcast-owned company prepares to spinoff MSNBC & other cable channels

deadline.com

 

[ncted]

That was fast, expecting early next year, hate being out of the loop-

NBCUniversal Split: Comcast To Spin Off Cable Channels Under Mark Lazarus; Donna Langley Consolidates Power, NBC, Peacock & Bravo Stay Put

Donna Langley is in the NBCU driver's seat as the Comcast-owned company prepares to spinoff MSNBC & other cable channels

deadline.com

So they are going to spin those channels off, let them go bankrupt, and then buy them back at a reduced rate? The lawyers must not be charging them enough.

 

[Bruce]

So they are going to spin those channels off, let them go bankrupt, and then buy them back at a reduced rate? The lawyers must not be charging them enough.

It just seems like they want them off the Comcast books, before they have to devalue them as Warner ( $10 Billion devalued ) and Paramount ($5 Billion) has done.

Best time to do that is now, when they still have perceived value.

I own shares in Comcast, should, very soon, receive more information.

 

[ncted]

It just seems like they want them off the Comcast books, before they have to devalue them as Warner ( $10 Billion devalued ) and Paramount ($5 Billion) has done.

Best time to do that is now, when they still have perceived value.

I own shares in Comcast, should, very soon, receive more information.

I know that is what they are saying. I was just inferring what was really going to happen.

 

[Bruce]

I know that is what they are saying. I was just inferring what was really going to happen.

That I do not know, because this spin off will have streaming assets, Fandango ( which includes Vudu, now Fandango at Home), Rotten Tomatoes, GolfNow and Sports Engine.

If they pick up some more streaming assets plus some cable channels for cheap, could be a successful venture, if not, it is just a spin off to protect the books and will die off over time.

Cable Channels it could pick up, are the one Skydance wants to get rid off, since they want to keep Paramount+ ( that turns profitable at the right time).

BETs, MTVs, VH1s, POP, CMT, LOGO are all rumored to be for sale once the merger is complete, but I do not know if Comcast would want them.

 

[savarese04]

Could this be a prelude to a streaming merger with Peacock and Paramount+? I feel like they would have had some trouble with the originally constituted NBCU, but now that they spun off, they could easily turn this into a JV of some sort with Skydance.

 

[Bruce]

Could this be a prelude to a streaming merger with Peacock and Paramount+? I feel like they would have had some trouble with the originally constituted NBCU, but now that they spun off, they could easily turn this into a JV of some sort with Skydance.

A bundle in pricing I could see, but not a merger of services.

Paramount+ does not really need Peacock, since Paramount+ has over 70 Million subscribers here in the United States, has become profitable and going global, since Paramount owns most of the programming on plus, rights issues are not a big deal for airing in other countries.

Peacock only has 37 Million subscribers, but a lot of content is only available to air in the United States, a lot of shows are licensed to different providers in other countries, content not owned by NBC.

So Peacock needs Paramount, but not the reverse.

Hulu has the same issue with rights for content, hence why Hulu is only available in the United States and Canada.

For example FX shows are on Hulu here, in england, they are licensed to the BBC for their iPlayer streaming service.

 

[Bruce]

So with that, -963,000 that have left paid Live TV, about a 500,000 increase over 3rd Quarter 2023.

The above estimate included what I thought was losses for DirecTV ( up to 1 Million due to the Disney/ESPN dispute) and gains to YTTV,

But final numbers are out-

So with the above numbers -517,000 ( but do not include DirecTV and YTTV).

With the estimated loss of 1 million for DirecTV, up to 1,517,000 that left in the third quarter, which is extremely worse than 3rd Quarter 2023.

If the DirecTV loss is less than the analysts estimate and how much YTTV gained, which, I would assume they did, because of the DirecTV dispute, will change the number.

Pay TV operators saw cord cutting improve in Q3

No one is going to confuse the U.S. linear pay TV business as a growth sector. | Charter, Comcast, Verizon and Altice USA all posted less video blood loss in the quarter vs. Q3 2023.

www.streamtvinsider.com

 

[lakebum431]

It just seems like they want them off the Comcast books, before they have to devalue them as Warner ( $10 Billion devalued ) and Paramount ($5 Billion) has done.

Best time to do that is now, when they still have perceived value.

I own shares in Comcast, should, very soon, receive more information.

Not the same situation at all because that isn't how accounting works. The write-downs you reference were related to the goodwill that was on the books for Warners/Paramount as a result of the acquisitions they went through. These networks have a very long history under current ownership so there is little to no goodwill to write-down (USA has been part of NBCU since 2004, Syfy since 1997, Oxygen 2007, E! 1997 while MS NBC, CNBC and Golf all internally developed so zero goodwill). This is no "write-down" coming for these channels that they are trying to avoid.

 

[Bruce]

(USA has been part of NBCU since 2004, Syfy since 1997, Oxygen 2007, E! 1997 while MS NBC, CNBC and Golf all internally developed so zero goodwill

And all of them are not worth what they used to be, since 2017, have 32 Million less subscribers, that means those per sub fees went bye bye, advertising revenue is rumored to be half what it used to be.

So yes, they should be devalued as Warner/Paramount has already done.