TIVO vs E*

[vampz26]

Its ironic. Some would consider me a successful Tivo invester because I made a nice chunk of change buying low and selling high over the years, including over the last monthes. And I HATE tivo and think they are an unethical business. My opinion, not worth discussing, but none-the-less relevant to the very ironic observation that I hate Tivo and made money, mainer LOVES tivo and lost money. I mean, if I can be bold and offer a grain of advice here. It doesn't matter if you love Tivo, love D*, or love E*, if you love the dollar more and channel your loyalties accordingly, you'll invest more successfully. Its like betting on sports, you may love your team, but betting with your head and not your heart is how you beat the books.

 

[vampz26]

Fair enough.

I am not convinced of the argument that the reason TiVo hasn't done well is due to its not getting a piece of Dish Network subs. Seems to me that the $12.95 per month charge to use the DVR could be a greater reason? I know it kept me away from TiVo long before I had a Dish DVR (then called a PVR).

And never underestimate Charlie Ergen. I've met the man, and he is a shrewd entrepreneur.

Tivos problem extend from relying of a flawed business model. They are basically in the business of selling vaporware at the moment.

 

[jacmyoung]

...albeit a rather unsuccessful one due to charlies unusual approach to business, and my inability to predict and time his moves...

Charlie's moves seem more predictable than anyone else's The guy is a born risk taker, a gambler, and if one only looks at his litigation history, not just this case but all his other major cases and his programming negotiations, he loves to appeal/fight to the very end. I suspect most investors who are drawn to his stocks did so because of his "unusual approach to business."

I am totally surprised you had problem predicting his moves

 

[Greg Bimson]

I am not convinced of the argument that the reason TiVo hasn't done well is due to its not getting a piece of Dish Network subs. Seems to me that the $12.95 per month charge to use the DVR could be a greater reason? I know it kept me away from TiVo long before I had a Dish DVR (then called a PVR).

It wasn't as much the monthly charges for standalone services as much as it was for "integrated services".

I recall when the TiVo's for DirecTV came out that one had to write a check to both DirecTV for TV service and then TiVo for DVR service. Even that was a turn-off.

It is much better product when the technology and the billing is integrated. And DISH/SATS would never allow that to happen. They had seen the debacle with WebTV.

That's lovely, greg. Than you should also remember that after being punted by D*, tivo didn't see another stock boost until comcast shown them pity and signed with them.

How many subs does TiVo have through Comcast? So in other words, the "stock boost" came from the announcement of an agreement, but there hasn't been a correlating boost in subscribers from Comcast. Therefore, although the dollars have not materialized for TiVo from the Comcast deal, TiVo is still doing OK.

But if announcements are the main effect to a stock price, the first time TiVo has seen double digits for years involves an annoucement that DISH/SATS is in contempt of an injunction. So many more people in the markets have seen that the DISH/SATS stubbornness is going to drive the perceived value of TiVo higher through licensing fees or even damages better than what DirecTV or Comcast has ever done to TiVo.

And I HATE tivo and think they are an unethical business.

Far less unethical than DISH. One judge even made it a point once to state CEO Ergen never intended to keep his promise to the courts. Nothing like a judge calling a CEO a liar. Yet some have no problem doing business with this unethical company.

Of course, with stock off 50 percent from its yearly high, more customers leaving than signing up, and now about half a billion dollars at risk from this infringement and contempt suit, its easy to see why the business model is stagnant and faltering.

 

[jacmyoung]

...Of course, with stock off 50 percent from its yearly high, more customers leaving than signing up, and now about half a billion dollars at risk from this infringement and contempt suit, its easy to see why the business model is stagnant and faltering.

TiVo has lost about half of the subs in two years? That is like E* losing 7 million subs in two years. I guess it is easy to see why TiVo's business model is more stagnant and faltering? The only thing keeps TiVo's stock price there is the litigation, I guess you just proved Vampz point.

But of course if your business is mostly dependent on litigations, the risk is much higher than if your business is mostly based on sales and services.

 

[Mainer_Ayah]

Fair enough.

I am not convinced of the argument that the reason TiVo hasn't done well is due to its not getting a piece of Dish Network subs. Seems to me that the $12.95 per month charge to use the DVR could be a greater reason? I know it kept me away from TiVo long before I had a Dish DVR (then called a PVR).

And never underestimate Charlie Ergen. I've met the man, and he is a shrewd entrepreneur.

I don't agree on either point. In a networked home like mine, TiVo and its abilities bring far more to the table than being simply a dvr. But, its ease of use, and extremely intuitive interface are what got my family (not me mind you) hooked on TiVo. As far as my family is concerned, the cell phones (and maybe I) would go before the tivo's (we have 5). TiVo's inability to grow is a direct result of all the infringing products (not just the DISH products) that are on the market being supplied for low cost (because of low or no development costs). I know you don't agree with that, but let's agree that time will tell as far as the rest of the DVR market is concerned.

As far as Charlie goes, he is a manipulator pure and simple. If after meeting him you walked away impressed with his entreprenurial prowess, than that is the way he wanted you to feel. It does not make him a good entrepreneur (evidenced by the predicerment he has himself in right now) it just makes him a good manipulator of people. So far that ability to manipulate has worked for him, and has given him the added advantage of "table presence" as they say in the poker world. But this house of cards he has built on a weak or non-existant foundation of his "skills" is about to fall.

 

[vampz26]

It wasn't as much the monthly charges for standalone services as much as it was for "integrated services".

I recall when the TiVo's for DirecTV came out that one had to write a check to both DirecTV for TV service and then TiVo for DVR service. Even that was a turn-off.

It is much better product when the technology and the billing is integrated. And DISH/SATS would never allow that to happen. They had seen the debacle with WebTV.How many subs does TiVo have through Comcast? So in other words, the "stock boost" came from the announcement of an agreement, but there hasn't been a correlating boost in subscribers from Comcast. Therefore, although the dollars have not materialized for TiVo from the Comcast deal, TiVo is still doing OK.

But if announcements are the main effect to a stock price, the first time TiVo has seen double digits for years involves an annoucement that DISH/SATS is in contempt of an injunction. So many more people in the markets have seen that the DISH/SATS stubbornness is going to drive the perceived value of TiVo higher through licensing fees or even damages better than what DirecTV or Comcast has ever done to TiVo.Far less unethical than DISH. One judge even made it a point once to state CEO Ergen never intended to keep his promise to the courts. Nothing like a judge calling a CEO a liar. Yet some have no problem doing business with this unethical company.

Of course, with stock off 50 percent from its yearly high, more customers leaving than signing up, and now about half a billion dollars at risk from this infringement and contempt suit, its easy to see why the business model is stagnant and faltering.

Look Greg, jacy will tell you I NEVER read 'wasted word' posts. There isn't a single point worth making that can't be made in five sentences or less, so consider your fluff and repetition ignored and I will focus on the basics:


1) Thank you for proving Tivo is selling vaporware. You are correct, Tivo (and me) benifited from hype and never turned dollar one selling vaporware to comcast.

2) We've already established that the judge is biased and the system flawed. You were a main contributor to those realizations. Thank you. Unfortunately a corrupt judge in a corrupt system calling a CEO corrupt is hardly an effective argument.

3) And yes, you are correct. A company relying on a corrupt courtcase and fragile patent is definitely a weak business plan. I mean, how long can tivo keep doing this everytime somebody build a better mousetrap? There will be others win or lose.

 

[Mainer_Ayah]

Tivos problem extend from relying of a flawed business model. They are basically in the business of selling vaporware at the moment.

Does this board have the ability to put an individual user on ignore? I suddenly have the urge to no longer view totally nonsensical posts.

 

[Mainer_Ayah]

But of course if your business is mostly dependent on litigations, the risk is much higher than if your business is mostly based on sales and services.

Oh please. This implication that TiVo is some sort of patent troll is getting old. TiVo's business (like many inventive companies) depends on agreements made to license their IP, and failing that, defense of their IP. If you want to talk about a company that depends upon litigation for it's survival, go look at your post regarding the oh great charlie and hid litigous nature. The guy is a lawyer-courtroom junky.

 

[Greg Bimson]

1) Thank you for proving Tivo is selling vaporware. You are correct, Tivo (and me) benifited from hype and never turned dollar one selling vaporware to comcast.

There are revenues to the company, therefore, there isn't "vaporware". If you are discussing the stock price, they are manipulated via rumor, innuendo and news.

2) We've already established that the judge is biased and the system flawed. You were a main contributor to those realizations. Thank you. Unfortunately a corrupt judge in a corrupt system calling a CEO corrupt is hardly an effective argument.

There has not been a bias proven, every system in the world is flawed, and it was not THIS JUDGE that called Ergen corrupt.

3) And yes, you are correct. A company relying on a corrupt courtcase and fragile patent is definitely a weak business plan. I mean, how long can tivo keep doing this everytime somebody build a better mousetrap? There will be others win or lose.

Since the better mousetrap is built off of TiVo's patented process and product, quite a few times.

 

[vampz26]

Does this board have the ability to put an individual user on ignore? I suddenly have the urge to no longer view totally nonsensical posts.

What does Tivo sell?

 

[Ronnie-]

Does this board have the ability to put an individual user on ignore? I suddenly have the urge to no longer view totally nonsensical posts.

Yes,left click on the name, then a list of options comes up. Ignore is at the bottom

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Does this board have the ability to put an individual user on ignore? I suddenly have the urge to no longer view totally nonsensical posts.

Of course we have ignore features; but I don't take kindly to the way you just posted that. It was an attack. Don't continue down that path.

 

[Mainer_Ayah]

Yes,left click on the name, then a list of options comes up. Ignore is at the bottom

Much clearer air now. Thank you.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

I don't agree on either point. In a networked home like mine, TiVo and its abilities bring far more to the table than being simply a dvr. But, its ease of use, and extremely intuitive interface are what got my family (not me mind you) hooked on TiVo. As far as my family is concerned, the cell phones (and maybe I) would go before the tivo's (we have 5). TiVo's inability to grow is a direct result of all the infringing products (not just the DISH products) that are on the market being supplied for low cost (because of low or no development costs). I know you don't agree with that, but let's agree that time will tell as far as the rest of the DVR market is concerned.

As far as Charlie goes, he is a manipulator pure and simple. If after meeting him you walked away impressed with his entreprenurial prowess, than that is the way he wanted you to feel. It does not make him a good entrepreneur (evidenced by the predicerment he has himself in right now) it just makes him a good manipulator of people. So far that ability to manipulate has worked for him, and has given him the added advantage of "table presence" as they say in the poker world. But this house of cards he has built on a weak or non-existant foundation of his "skills" is about to fall.

Yeah, well the Slingbox I have performs a lot of the same network integration, and now that the 922 is close to coming out, it will be even more advanced.


As far as Charlie goes; its not about meeting him; its about observing what he has done over the years for the DBS industry. He is truly a satellite pioneer; and I think has a vision for the future that is exciting. Just wait for the 922, with its sling-enabled technology; the satellite receiver to end all receivers (AND since its being made by Echostar, it will be able to sell to the cable industry too). I think TiVO is well aware of the threat that Charlie Ergen and Echostar represent. And it should never underestimate him.

 

[vampz26]

There are revenues to the company, therefore, there isn't "vaporware". If you are discussing the stock price, they are manipulated via rumor, innuendo and news.There has not been a bias proven, every system in the world is flawed, and it was not THIS JUDGE that called Ergen corrupt.Since the better mousetrap is built off of TiVo's patented process and product, quite a few times.

You know, you naver fail to prove my own arguments against you. Wow.

Too bad nobody in the flawed court system understands mousetraps well enough to suport your statement.

So long as DVRs exist that apparently don't infringe (like D* or cable) there will always be a better mousetrap waiting in the wings. And so long as the court system remains ignorant and biased in an attempt to hide their ignorance, there will always be tivo attempting to profit off of others efforts to innovate where they failed. Luck will run out.

...And nothing you've posted thus far even remotely suggests any different.

 

[Greg Bimson]

What does Tivo sell?

Originally the business plan was 90 percent revenues from the end user for sales and subscriptions of DVR's. Now, they are also a measurement and advertising company, so their updated business model revolves around revenue streams from end users, advertisers and networks. As well as licensing fees. And on-demand.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Much clearer air now. Thank you.

Last warning on personal snipes. Do you understand?

 

[Thomas22]

Much clearer air now. Thank you.

I just wish the ignore feature also ignored any posts that quoted the ignored poster. Maybe there's a software improvement in the works.

 

[vampz26]

Originally the business plan was 90 percent revenues from the end user for sales and subscriptions of DVR's. Now, they are also a measurement and advertising company, so their updated business model revolves around revenue streams from end users, advertisers and networks. As well as licensing fees. And on-demand.

Lol...the concept of vaporware is arguable at this point. But I am just not going there. Thanks again greg.