The End of VOOM?

[BobMurdoch]

Hail Hail Charles !!!!

Owning 49% of Cablevision stock gives him many alternatives.

If I were him, I'd figure out a way to buy the Voom assets and the two cable vision channels that could cash flow it in exchange of some of the stock. Unfortunately, if he's successful, they'll be screaming that Cablevision got robbed. Considering that profits for Cablevision has for the most part flattened out, I would have thought that they would have stayed with the Voom project.

They tried to spin it off and found that "demand" was less than expected. Yeah, they couldn't find any idiots that would take the "assets" which acted more like liabilities.

Your statement just doesn't make any sense. Profits flattened out BECAUSE V* was burning through $1 billion a year. Their cable systems and broadband services are making money. V* is not. In order for the venture to even have a CHANCE of succeeding they needed at least a million subscribers at this point to show that they were moving in the right direction and were moving towards closing the gap and make the unit self sustaining. I'm not sure of the exact numbers, but let's say that they burned through $5 billion up to this point trying to get this thing off the ground. Assuming a "generous" 50,000 current subscriber base (I had last heard 27,000 but let's say that XMas was "good" to them for argument's and they almost doubled their subscribers). That means that they spent $100,000 per subscriber. As in 5 zeroes, to generate, let's say an average of $50 a month. That projects out to TOTAL revenue of $30,000,000 a year. Factor in continuing variable programming costs, employee salaries, and whatever other expenses are there and you've got a giant sucking sound more powerful than a black hole. Figure each subscriber they add continues to cost them anywhere from $500 if they got to E* or D*'s level to a more likely $2500 cost per subscriber right now in advertising costs and the numbers simply do not add up.

I'm sorry, I don't mean to dance on the bones before the body pitches forward, but there is NO way Dolan will risk his own money to bankrupt himself in trying to keep this thing going ESPECIALLY since he no longer owns the satellite. This is another case of a pioneer getting shot in the back by an arrow by getting into a new frontier before the market is ready. There simply aren't enough HD sets out there (and the majority of the ones out there are still content to merely watch DVDs or play XBox games on them). Hey, maybe Dolan WILL burn through his own money to keep it operating, as he tries to reduce the inheritance of his son who challenged him. I don't see it happening though.

Look for a fairly orderly transition period until the sale goes through. Worst case, the channels go dark next month. Best case, 90 days after the satellite sale is approved by the FCC.

 

[graphiteRT]

I don't think the satellite makes a difference in terms of MPEG4. I think the satellite just repeats what is sent to it, be is MPEG2 or MPEG4. The part that has to be MPEG4 is the encoder at the up-link facility and decoder in the receivers, but the satellite shouldn't need anything special to handle MPEG4.

MPEG4 requires different hardware and it's a little difficult to change out once a satellite is in orbit. Satellites are more than simple repeater stations.

 

[JimP]

Bob

Did they really burn through $5 billion??

Where can we look at their financial statements?

 

[graphiteRT]

They tried to spin it off and found that "demand" was less than expected. Yeah, they couldn't find any idiots that would take the "assets" which acted more like liabilities.

Your statement just doesn't make any sense. Profits flattened out BECAUSE V* was burning through $1 billion a year. Their cable systems and broadband services are making money. V* is not. In order for the venture to even have a CHANCE of succeeding they needed at least a million subscribers at this point to show that they were moving in the right direction and were moving towards closing the gap and make the unit self sustaining. I'm not sure of the exact numbers, but let's say that they burned through $5 billion up to this point trying to get this thing off the ground. Assuming a "generous" 50,000 current subscriber base (I had last heard 27,000 but let's say that XMas was "good" to them for argument's and they almost doubled their subscribers). That means that they spent $100,000 per subscriber. As in 5 zeroes, to generate, let's say an average of $50 a month. That projects out to TOTAL revenue of $30,000,000 a year. Factor in continuing variable programming costs, employee salaries, and whatever other expenses are there and you've got a giant sucking sound more powerful than a black hole. Figure each subscriber they add continues to cost them anywhere from $500 if they got to E* or D*'s level to a more likely $2500 cost per subscriber right now in advertising costs and the numbers simply do not add up.

I'm sorry, I don't mean to dance on the bones before the body pitches forward, but there is NO way Dolan will risk his own money to bankrupt himself in trying to keep this thing going ESPECIALLY since he no longer owns the satellite. This is another case of a pioneer getting shot in the back by an arrow by getting into a new frontier before the market is ready. There simply aren't enough HD sets out there (and the majority of the ones out there are still content to merely watch DVDs or play XBox games on them). Hey, maybe Dolan WILL burn through his own money to keep it operating, as he tries to reduce the inheritance of his son who challenged him. I don't see it happening though.

Look for a fairly orderly transition period until the sale goes through. Worst case, the channels go dark next month. Best case, 90 days after the satellite sale is approved by the FCC.

The most recent figures I found in a Klipinger report was $1.4B to date that CVC has spent on Voom. Considering the high startup cost of commissioning and launching a satellite, I don't think that's unreasonable. Estimates were for ~$1.5B more being needed over the next few years.

What got them was the shareholders not wanting to play VC and they have a legitimate complaint. It was a drag on CVC's bottom line. Somewhere recently I read 40k current subscribers(the 26k figure is dated). Considering that D* has only 500k HD subscribers to date(announced in last week's CC) and they've been at it much longer and have better marketing, I don't think that's all that bad.

Maybe where they got off on the wrong foot was going for this exclusive HD angle. Sure, play up the HD side, but don't forget that it's still DBS with a regular offering of SD as well.

This one hasn't played out just yet. Let's see what the coming weeks bring in news.

 

[BobMurdoch]

My bad. I was estimating it off the top of my head based on their $477 million loss in 2004 and the several years they were in business gearing up.......

They've ONLY burned through $1.4 Billion so far, but Kiplinger's has their subscriber count at 26,000 AND they said that churn was running 10% a month (ouch). Soooo, that drops my number to ONLY $53,846 per subscriber. Apologies for not researching more intently at first. The numbers are still obscenely out of whack for a business expected to become self sustaining within a few years......

 

[BobMurdoch]

http://www.kiplinger.com/news/XmlStoryResult.php?storyid=200501243020.33_50e90020f50e126e

Here's a story that references their expenditures through the end of 2004 for those that want to check my numbers.

 

[Peter Parker]

There have been a lot of claims in posts that we can't check out. But the calim that MPEG 4 takes different SATELLITE hardware strikes me as one we could check out. Can anyone with technical expertise comment on this?

 

[SKrueger]

There have been a lot of claims in posts that we can't check out. But the calim that MPEG 4 takes different SATELLITE hardware strikes me as one we could check out. Can anyone with technical expertise comment on this?

I don't see why the satellite would need different hardware. It's just transmitting a signal. The encoding would be done by the uplink station and the decoding by the stb. And isn't channel 700 where Voom is testing the MPEG 4?

 

[bryan27]

MPEG4 requires different hardware and it's a little difficult to change out once a satellite is in orbit. Satellites are more than simple repeater stations.

It is true that satellites are slightly more than repeater stations. They are translators. A satellite receceives a signal on one frequency then trannsmits it on another frequency. The same satellite is capable of transmitting Analog, any and all digital standards or non-standard digital (including MPEG 1, 1.5, 2, 3, and 4) any and all encryption methods all simultaniously. A transponder that was transmitting analog one day can transmit in digital the next, all the satellite wants is a signal, it doesn't care what type of signal.

 

[joemama]

It is true that satellites are slightly more than repeater stations. They are translators. A satellite receceives a signal on one frequency then trannsmits it on another frequency. The same satellite is capable of transmitting Analog, any and all digital standards or non-standard digital (including MPEG 1, 1.5, 2, 3, and 4) any and all encryption methods all simultaniously. A transponder that was transmitting analog one day can transmit in digital the next, all the satellite wants is a signal, it doesn't care what type of signal.

Well put, you beat me to the answer.

 

[Lobstah]

"There simply aren't enough HD sets out there (and the majority of the ones out there are still content to merely watch DVDs or play XBox games on them). Hey, maybe Dolan WILL burn through his own money to keep it operating, as he tries to reduce the inheritance of his son who challenged him. I don't see it happening though.

Look for a fairly orderly transition period until the sale goes through. Worst case, the channels go dark next month. Best case, 90 days after the satellite sale is approved by the FCC."

I agree with all three of these points Well...two points and one strategy for Donan Sr.

Still a %10 chance that someone can pull the nose up in time though...

Lob

 

[SactoCal]

Feb 1st and Voom is still live in Sacramento CA.

 

[DarrellP]

There are plenty of HD sets out there, J6P just needs an education to let him know that the analog cable signal he's watching is NOT HD, and Voom needs to start stressing the fact that they can be watched on an analog TV with a much higher picture quality than cable or the other DBS providers.

That brings up the next question: How many TV watchers actually care about PQ? Fewer than you'd think.

 

[joverstr2]

Voom needs to start stressing the fact that they can be watched on an analog TV with a much higher picture quality than cable or the other DBS providers.

Actually they are now...
http://www.voom.com/lp/offer1.shtml?ag=incognito

"Plus, your Standard Definition TVs will be noticeably clearer"

 

[joep]

That brings up the next question: How many TV watchers actually care about PQ? Fewer than you'd think.

I concur; I believe there is only a small percentage of the population that will pay “extra” for better picture quality. For example, few people will buy a “progressive” DVD player for the sole purpose of improved pic quality. They will only buy it if their current DVD player breaks down. The same was true for Laserdisc vs. tape in the 80’s. Very few people purchased a laserdisc player because of the pic quality. Of course, I was one first people to actually buy a laserdisc player. As a “videophile” as well as an audiophile, I am really not surprised that Voom’s sub count is less than 50K. Although, I really believe that Voom’s main reason for not succeeding was not offering Local national channels in their lineup.

 

[DarrellP]

Case in point: my next door neighbor comes over to watch MNF and is just in awe at the big screen and picture clarity, yet he goes home to a 27" TV hooked up to analog cable that's in torch mode since he bought it and is now all washed out and he's happy with it.

Another: my EX wife was just happy as a pig in SH*T to watch analog cable on a 13" TV. I would show her HD and she'd say "That's nice" and walk away. She could've cared less about the PQ or a show that was PVR's. She didn't even want me to pause a DVD if the phone rang or she went to do something for a few minutes, it just wasn't important to her. Me, on the other hand, I have to hear every word in a movie. My roommate has learned to shut up when I am watching a show or he is severely chastised.

 

[r.jones1116]

That brings up the next question: How many TV watchers actually care about PQ? Fewer than you'd think.

That's probably true for now, but within the next couple of years the only kind of TV set your gonna be able to buy is a HDTV set.

Voom needs to hang on to life support during this time. If they do, they'll leave the competition behind. We're early adopters and look how fanatical we are about HDTV. The rest of the world will catch up with us.

 

[rickaren]

DarrellP

You need to get a HD Wife next time. Put that in your prenuptials.

 

[SactoCal]

My wife actually told me all the money I had spent on our plasma and shiznit was finally justified when I brought in Voom. She loves the PQ and told me she can now travel the world (Equator) from our couch. When I told here about James and his sidestepping Chuck, the sale of the satellite, and the uncertainty surrounding the future of Voom, she actually got upset and almost cried.

 

[r.jones1116]

My wife actually told me all the money I had spent on our plasma and shiznit was finally justified when I brought in Voom. She loves the PQ and told me she can now travel the world (Equator) from our couch. When I told here about James and his sidestepping Chuck, the sale of the satellite, and the uncertainty surrounding the future of Voom, she actually got upset and almost cried.

That's beautiful!!!!