http://www.tvpredictions.com/hdreportcard121806.htm
'The Great Swanni' looks into his rear mirror to see if his 2006 'HDTV Crystal Ball' was clear or cloudy.
By Phillip Swann
Washington, D.C. (December 18, 2006) -- In 2005, I made 12 predictions for High-Definition TV in 2006. Was my crystal ball as clear as the high-def picture? Let's take a look: (And look for my "2007 HDTV Predictions" within the next week.)
Prediction #1:
HDTV Sales Will Jump In the First Two Months of 2006.
I said the combination of three events -- Congress passing a new Digital TV deadline for 2009; and the February broadcast of the Super Bowl and the 2006 Winter Olympics -- would fuel a high-def sales surge in the first two months. Right on the money, according to research studies and sales figures. This has been a big year for high-def and the first two months of the year got the ball rolling.
Grade: A
Prediction #2:
The Plasma-LCD-DLP-SED Flat-Screen TV War Will Spur More Interest in HDTV.
I also wrote: "However, the battle will also confuse consumers. People are unfamiliar with these arcane industry terms, such as LCD and DLP. They might be interested in buying a high-def set, but they're not sure if they're buying the right one. The industry needs to do a better job of making the choice easier for consumers."
Oh, boy, was I right on this one. There have been several consumer research studies this year showing that consumers are extremely interested in HD, but highly confused by the various terms and technology.
Grade: A
Prediction #3:
DIRECTV Will Emerge As the HDTV Leader.
I thought DIRECTV would launch their two new HD satellites this year, but they pushed back the launch until 2007. So, I was a year ahead. A year ahead, but wrong nonetheless. DIRECTV still has just nine national HD channels, far fewer than most cable and satellite operators.
Grade: F
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Prediction #4:
Plasma TV 'Enhanced-Definition' Prices Will Hit $1,000 By the 2006 Holidays, With Plasma HDTVs Falling Below $1,500.
I wrote: "In December 2006, I believe you'll see 42-inch Plasma HDTV-ready sets available for $1299, perhaps lower."
Wow. Talk about having a crystal ball. Wal-Mart is now selling a Panasonic 42-inch Plasma HDTV for $1,294.
Grade: A+
Prediction #5:
Rear-Projection TV Sales Will Suffer in 2006
I wrote: "With flat-screen prices falling, there will be less reason to buy a rear-projection set." The industry is filled with reports about the booming sales of LCD and Plasma flat-screen sets in 2006. CRT and DLP rear-projection sets are doing okay, but flat is where it's at.
Grade: B+
Prediction #6:
But Rear-Projection HDTV Prices Will Drop Under $500
I wrote: "For instance, a RCA 52-inch HDTV-ready set is available now in some stores for $899, but next year it will be $499, or lower." Wal-Mart is now offering that set in select stores for less than $500. However, it's still $699 at other retailers.
Grade: B+
'The Great Swanni' looks into his rear mirror to see if his 2006 'HDTV Crystal Ball' was clear or cloudy.
By Phillip Swann
Washington, D.C. (December 18, 2006) -- In 2005, I made 12 predictions for High-Definition TV in 2006. Was my crystal ball as clear as the high-def picture? Let's take a look: (And look for my "2007 HDTV Predictions" within the next week.)
Prediction #1:
HDTV Sales Will Jump In the First Two Months of 2006.
I said the combination of three events -- Congress passing a new Digital TV deadline for 2009; and the February broadcast of the Super Bowl and the 2006 Winter Olympics -- would fuel a high-def sales surge in the first two months. Right on the money, according to research studies and sales figures. This has been a big year for high-def and the first two months of the year got the ball rolling.
Grade: A
Prediction #2:
The Plasma-LCD-DLP-SED Flat-Screen TV War Will Spur More Interest in HDTV.
I also wrote: "However, the battle will also confuse consumers. People are unfamiliar with these arcane industry terms, such as LCD and DLP. They might be interested in buying a high-def set, but they're not sure if they're buying the right one. The industry needs to do a better job of making the choice easier for consumers."
Oh, boy, was I right on this one. There have been several consumer research studies this year showing that consumers are extremely interested in HD, but highly confused by the various terms and technology.
Grade: A
Prediction #3:
DIRECTV Will Emerge As the HDTV Leader.
I thought DIRECTV would launch their two new HD satellites this year, but they pushed back the launch until 2007. So, I was a year ahead. A year ahead, but wrong nonetheless. DIRECTV still has just nine national HD channels, far fewer than most cable and satellite operators.
Grade: F
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Prediction #4:
Plasma TV 'Enhanced-Definition' Prices Will Hit $1,000 By the 2006 Holidays, With Plasma HDTVs Falling Below $1,500.
I wrote: "In December 2006, I believe you'll see 42-inch Plasma HDTV-ready sets available for $1299, perhaps lower."
Wow. Talk about having a crystal ball. Wal-Mart is now selling a Panasonic 42-inch Plasma HDTV for $1,294.
Grade: A+
Prediction #5:
Rear-Projection TV Sales Will Suffer in 2006
I wrote: "With flat-screen prices falling, there will be less reason to buy a rear-projection set." The industry is filled with reports about the booming sales of LCD and Plasma flat-screen sets in 2006. CRT and DLP rear-projection sets are doing okay, but flat is where it's at.
Grade: B+
Prediction #6:
But Rear-Projection HDTV Prices Will Drop Under $500
I wrote: "For instance, a RCA 52-inch HDTV-ready set is available now in some stores for $899, but next year it will be $499, or lower." Wal-Mart is now offering that set in select stores for less than $500. However, it's still $699 at other retailers.
Grade: B+
