Are you sure? If Miami wins next week, to go 8-8 and if Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston and Denver all lose next week, or if only one of them wins, then at least three of them, including Miami, would be 6-6 in the conference, so they would have to go to "strength of victory", which I don't know how to figure out, to pick the two wildcard entries. Also, Jacksonville can go 8-8. Even if one of the four teams with 8 wins goes 9-7, Miami would still be in a big tie with the rest that would also have to be settled through the strength of victory method.
If indeed Miami could survive a strength of victory determination, then their chances of making the playoffs, using the simple permutation method and ignoring the fact that the home team or better team is more likely to win each game, then I think there would be a 5 in 32 chance that Miami would be involved in a strength of schedule tie breaker (1 in 16 that all four eight-win teams lose, 4 in 16 that 3 of those 4 lose, and 50-50 that Miami wins).
A Jacksonville win would put them into such a tie breaker, but would not affect Miami's chance of being in such a tie breaker but might influence their chance of winning it.
You're right, I stand corrected.
All the websites have the Dolphins still alive.
The announcer during the Texans-Dolphins game on CBS said the Dolphins were eliminated. He probably didn't mean it literally, but I took it that way.