It's Official - iPhone on Verizon Wireless

[diogen]

Verizon seems to be doing just fine without [the iPhone]...

And that is the contention point.
Some analysts believe the opposite is true (see above CIO link).

I believe there are two different questions that get (intentionally or not) switched around in discussions: revenue/profits and market share.
Apple's iPhone does very well in the former and not so good in the later. The reverse is true for Android.

One can make a point that a steady loss of market share sooner or later affects revenue. Case in point: Nokia.
But the smartphone market is growing at such a pace, this correlation won't work for a while.

Diogen.

 

[mike123abc]

One can make a point that a steady loss of market share sooner or later affects revenue. Case in point: Nokia.
But the smartphone market is growing at such pace, this correlation won't work for a while.

Diogen.

Apple has the most profitable computer business too. They manage to sell a small percentage of units shipped yet have huge sales and fat margins. Dell/HP sell huge number of boxes at tiny margins.

Who is making money in android? Google is making money with ad sales after the phone is sold. The handset makers are not making so much.

 

[diogen]

The real questions to ask would be:

1. Does Apple consider the deterioration of its smartphone market share as a threat to revenue?

I don't think for the next 2-3 years but it might be wise to start doing something now not to end up in Microsoft shoes.

2. What is the expected increase in total customer base by serving both GSM and CDMA markets?

I believe it is 25% max. Some claim double. I don't think Apple manufacturing can do double.

I wouldn't be surprised if Apple forces VZ to SIM-based CDMA and releases a universal (or double-SIM) phone.

Diogen.

 

[JamesJ]

I am thinking Stuart did, but I could be wrong. I know I didn't.

I suspect it is coming, but Don talking to his Verizon rep at a local store as a definitive source is like walking into Best Buy and asking one of my college student workers there for when the next great product is coming out.

How come we always see photos taken of the VZW system software on numerous tech sites, showing us when such and such phone has entered inventory, or when it is slated for EOL, but nothing whatsoever on the iPhone? Of course, there could be some St. Jobs magic going on.

Nope my hands are clean, I just responded for the sake of letting everyone know that even that article still calls it speculation...I would love to see a iphone on verizon (dont think I would get one, as android in my opinion is above where the iphone is) but I wont believe this till I see a official announcement its been what a 4 year rumor now.

 

[TheForce]

Why all the hubbub about Verizon and the iPhone? Who cares!? Verizon seems to be doing just fine without the most overrated piece of electronics ever to come out. I still don’t understand why the media continues to insist the iPhone is something so special and great, when it is far from that, when consumers have been eating up Android for the past year. If you like being controlled by an egotistical, anal retentive control freak, yes the iPhone is great for you. But for the rest of us Android is great.

Steve- the only ones who care are those who are deliberating to buy a Verizon brand iphone. Those who have no intention of buying the Verizon iphone and post here are just people who enjoy conflict. Scott was right when he posted briefly that anything is rumor until it is officially announced by the two companies. I agree with that but the real debate for me is the rumor credible or not. One can go through life in a state of denial or can speculate the future based on probabilities of credible rumor.

diogen- I have never agreed with the ways the media compare a single iphone sales penetration to a collection of multiple phones by competing companies or all phones with OS. That is only a fair comparison when comparing market share for companies. It is a good way to compare when one wants to diminish the impact Apple has had in the market, or to try and reduce the sales impact the phone has had. Lets compare the Droid Incredible to the iphone 4. We'll even give the Droid phone a one month lead in when it hit the market compared to the iphone 4. Which phone has achieved greater market share? I think, without even looking up the data that the single iphone 4 will have greater sales than any other single phone. The reason for it's popularity, is that the average person who wants to have a "smart" phone or one to access e-mail, surf the web and support apps, want a simple don't need to think about it phone. The main hold up to further growth of iphone has been the exclusivity with a lame AT&T. Had AT&T performed as they should, we wouldn't have so many people just waiting to jump ship as soon as they can to Verizon.

What is expected increase due to having CDMA and GSM? I don't think that is the point. The real question is what will be the total increase in sales when Apple is no longer tied to exclusive with AT&T in the US. The fact they had to use CDMA to expand is not material. The real game is gaining access to Verizon customer base and their network. Plus prevent more people so angry with AT&T that they jumped to Android phones just to be on what they think is a better network.


I agree with you about Apple ending up in Microsoft's shoes. MS is in real trouble. Cloud computing will be the next nail in their coffin. For Apple, all it will take is for Steve Jobs to leave the company and it will suffer the worst setback it has ever had. At this point Apple has no real problems. The company is on a roll. But to remain smart, one needs to be on the sell trigger the moment Steve is in trouble. He is the center of that company's success. BTW- I just saw a segment on Oprah where she declared the ipad the single most important invention in the past century.

 

[Peter Parker]

BTW- I just saw a segment on Oprah where she declared the ipad the single most important invention in the past century.

What she said was it was the best invention of THIS CENTURY SO FAR. Niot that it was the most important invention of the last 100 years.

Still a bit hyperbolic but not as outlandish as the most important of the past century.

As for the long term stability of both companies who knows? But while Apple hasa market cap that exceeds Microsoft both its revenue and profit were smaller. So which one sounds overvalued?

 

[TheForce]

What she said was it was the best invention of THIS CENTURY SO FAR.

Made you look didn't I. LOL!

Here's the chart on aapl v msft as of September reporting period.

 

[Peter Parker]

Yes you made me look. I wasn't sure we were playing that game but OK.

 

[TheForce]

No problem- I was intending it for someone else.

 

[diogen]

And if this can not be done then there will not be a Verizon iPhone...

Some more leaks in this department
Apple rumor: we'll sell 21 million iPhones in first quarter of 2011

To summarize:
- a CDMA version will be released for Verizon, China Mobile and SK Telecom;
- total # of CDMA phones to be sold: (5.5 +/- 0.5)M
- total # of GSM phones to be sold: (14.5 +/- 0.5)M

That makes the total # in the first quarter of 2011 (20 +/- 1)M compared with 15.5 in the last quarter of 2010 (estimated).
Increase of about 29%.

Now the question is: will the CDMA version be SIM-based...

Diogen.

 

[TheForce]

No need for a sim based phone but I'm curious if the CDMA version will have a modified antenna design considered all the brouhaha On iphone4 last summer.

 

[diogen]

Interesting, that based on the same source, the number of GSM iPhones expected to be sold
in 1Q 2011 is 1M less than sales estimates for 4Q 2010: 14.5M vs. 15.5M
Apple rumor: we'll sell 21 million iPhones in first quarter of 2011

Considering the smartphone market (in units) is growing 10-20% per quarter and GSM having
80%+ of the world cell market, expect further deterioration of iPhone's market share.

But then again, it's DigiTimes...

Diogen.

 

[TheForce]

Apple sold a record 14.1 million iPhones last quarter, and fourth-quarter sales are estimated at 15.5 million. According to DigiTimes sources, Apple is expecting to sell between 14 and 15 million GSM/UMTS iPhones for the first quarter in 2011.

Also, of worthy note, Actual sales have been beating estimates. With Verizon introduction but actual sales likely not until 2nd qtr, The real drop in GSM units, replaced with CDMA unites will probably be reported not until 2nd qtr.

BTW- Do you know which smart phone of all of them on the market sells more than iphone4 in any one qtr?

This was quite a challenge to search for a true answer since most of the reports I found wanted to compare all the phones in an OS with the iphone 4, a single device. Or, all the phones by a manufacturer with Apple iphone 4. Finally I found a reference that simply stated which Android phone sold the most in 2010 and it was the Galaxy S. at just under 10 million units to date.
The phone OS considered to be the No 1 OS in the world, Symbian, was even more difficult to find sales numbers for but it seems from my research the Nokia 5800 has been the all time best sales phone in the collection of hundreds of Symbian devices available. It had numbers in 2009 that were reported to be 13 million sales and as it is an older device, the sales waned a bit in 2010 to only 8 million for the year, still the top Symbian device sold. It is being replaced by the X6 but this has no sales yet for 2010.
Reports aren't in yet for iphone 4 unit sales but the intro qtr was 14.1 million units.

 

[Peter Parker]

I would consider purchasing an LTE capable Iphone but son't quite see the point in jumping to Verizon to be ona 3G network when 4G is so close at thand. If the phone has LTE that would be great. If not I thinka lot of people will ewait.

 

[Big Dawg 23]

I would consider purchasing an LTE capable Iphone but son't quite see the point in jumping to Verizon to be ona 3G network when 4G is so close at thand. If the phone has LTE that would be great. If not I thinka lot of people will ewait.

I think many people don't really care about 3G vs 4G. I know too many people that think there Blackberry on VZW run just fine. Now me personally anything less than 3G Rev A is a snooze fest. I left VZW for T-Mobile and got G2. My speed is near LTE and without the cost.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

I think the 3G v 4G thing is overblown. Most of the people who are on Verizon who would go to an iphone don't care about 3G/4G, they want to be magical, and that will be the driving force for them.

I do not expect mobile broadband to perform like an 80211N wireless network; and I am not concerned if it takes my phone 2 seconds longer to download a page. It just is not critical to me.

 

[TheForce]

I think the 3G v 4G thing is overblown. Most of the people who are on Verizon who would go to an iphone don't care about 3G/4G, they want to be magical, and that will be the driving force for them.

I do not expect mobile broadband to perform like an 80211N wireless network; and I am not concerned if it takes my phone 2 seconds longer to download a page. It just is not critical to me.

Not so fast, there. When you start slinging HD you'll be expecting LTE will live up to the hype. On a cell phone SD sling was adequate but now I have the SA and the slinbox HD coming in with a larger screen iPad. 3G even with EVDO rev A doesn't cut it. SD look a bit fuzzy.

My biggest fear as a verizon subscriber is that when the iPhone exodus happens, the rapid increase on it's networks will bring verizon to it's knees. I don't trust the verizon people when they tell me they are ready.

 

[tigerfan33]

Unfortunately we will be looking at data plans with no unlimited for Verizon when the iPhone goes to Verizon. If that does happen I will have to juggle the decision of bad cell service (AT&T) or possibly a higher monthly bill. I myself do not care about download speeds as long as it is faster that edge!

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Not so fast, there. When you start slinging HD you'll be expecting LTE will live up to the hype. On a cell phone SD sling was adequate but now I have the SA and the slinbox HD coming in with a larger screen iPad. 3G even with EVDO rev A doesn't cut it. SD look a bit fuzzy.

My biggest fear as a verizon subscriber is that when the iPhone exodus happens, the rapid increase on it's networks will bring verizon to it's knees. I don't trust the verizon people when they tell me they are ready.

I am not basing my decisions or concerns on the ability to sling HD to a portable device. It just isn't that important to me to be willing to pay what I expect will be a hefty premium. If I want HD video on my tablet or phone, I will download or rip it and transfer it to my device. AND I suspect the 4GLTE thing will NOT live up to the expectation of slinging HD video. I'd be shocked if it was- particularly once there is widespread usage of millions of devices. Heck, even when I have slinged HD video over the wired net, the quality is nowhere where it should be, and to expect it to be better on a mobile device? NAH, I doubt it...

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Unfortunately we will be looking at data plans with no unlimited for Verizon when the iPhone goes to Verizon. If that does happen I will have to juggle the decision of bad cell service (AT&T) or possibly a higher monthly bill. I myself do not care about download speeds as long as it is faster that edge!

A reason why I will stick with 3G for as long as I can -- the unlimited plan with the $60 discount i am getting on 3 data plans....