Incentive Auction Discussion

[harshness]

Where do you estimate it will end up

That will be a lot easier to figure out in about a week (based on whether or not the forward auction goes beyond a round or two) but when I trace out what has happened thus far, I expect that there will be, at best, at least a partial failure to meet the mandate. I'm dubious that the FCC will cover its costs, much less provide operational funding for the agency.

To undo them would take more months (at best) or years of rewriting rules.

A thoughtful process would include some methodology to update the mileposts based on metrics of the previous auctions and new insights gained during the process. I think having it all laid out takes a lot of urgency out of a process that usually involves not getting a second chance. It also opens the door to collusion. I'm convinced that the idea of hard-coding the things that could be variable was neither necessary nor a good idea.

 

[Trip]

So, the number is $10 billion.

- Trip

 

[navychop]

Can I hold it?

 

[harshness]

Can I hold it?

Because this is a reverse auction, the 10 billion would become (in the event that the round's forward auction was a success) a debt that the FCC would owe the TV stations for their channels that they are giving up. Until a successful round (where the forward auction bid total* is considerably greater than the reverse auction total), there's no "it" to hold. I'm sure the FCC would be willing to consider the transfer of any existing debt to you.

* a dollar figure that must cover:

• the reverse auction debt
• the combined cost of conducting all of the auction rounds
• subsidies to non-auction-participating stations for the cost of moving to different frequencies
  
• funding for ongoing FCC operations
• viggerish

 

[osu1991]

How low can it go? Reverse Auction at $10 Billion

http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/100695/how-low-can-it-go-reverse-auction-at-10b

The $10 billion total is far below the $86 billion that was being asked when the auction began back in June. The wireless bidders didn’t come anywhere near that so the target was lowered to $54.6 billion in stage 2, then to $40 billion in stage 3.

Marci Ryvicker and her team at Wells Fargo Securities say that they now assume that the auction will end with the upcoming forward auction with a minimum of $17 billion in bids.

That would be enough to satisfy the "reserve price" of $1.25 per MHzPop in the top 40 markets and cover the $10 billion owed the spectrum sellers plus $1.75 billion to reimburse broadcasters for their repack expenses and $225 million to reimburse the FCC for its administrative costs.

 

[harshness]

That would be enough to satisfy the "reserve price" of $1.25 per MHzPop in the top 40 markets and cover the $10 billion owed the spectrum sellers plus $1.75 billion to reimburse broadcasters for their repack expenses and $225 million to reimburse the FCC for its administrative costs.

And to think that I was rewarded with a rebuke for noting that the auction rounds were costing millions of dollars each.

 

[comfortably_numb]

I'd be happy to run an auction for, say, only $5 million. I'm just an email away!

 

[Peter Parker]

Because this is a reverse auction, the 10 billion would become (in the event that the round's forward auction was a success) a debt that the FCC would owe the TV stations for their channels that they are giving up. Until a successful round (where the forward auction bid total* is considerably greater than the reverse auction total), there's no "it" to hold. I'm sure the FCC would be willing to consider the transfer of any existing debt to you.

* a dollar figure that must cover:

• the reverse auction debt
• the combined cost of conducting all of the auction rounds
• subsidies to non-auction-participating stations for the cost of moving to different frequencies
  
• funding for ongoing FCC operations
• viggerish

He was joking.

 

[dhett]

And to think that I was rewarded with a rebuke for noting that the auction rounds were costing millions of dollars each.

Quite an imagination you have there. What you claim, never happened - at least not in this thread. But way to make the conversation about you.

Back to the original topic, the wireless bid currently stands at $18.2 B, $17.7 B after discounts are applied. The bid exceeds the clearing price, and the reserve price of $1.25/MHz-pop ($1.25 x # MHz x population) has been met. Now extended round bidding will ensure that supply meets demand in all markets (not just the top 40). Once that is reached, then the assignment round begins, where the wireless carriers will be able bid on specific blocks of spectrum. There is still a ways to go, and it will be some time before we find out who moves to VHF and who surrenders their license (and even longer to find out if those surrendering their license have chosen to share spectrum.

 

[localclassictvfan]

http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/100815/incentive-auction-ending-at-18-billion

wait and see now

 

[harshness]

There is still a ways to go, and it will be some time before we find out who moves to VHF and who surrenders their license (and even longer to find out if those surrendering their license have chosen to share spectrum.

Assuming that the round isn't invalidated by some twist, TV (the broadcasters and the FCC) knows today what they have to work so they can surely get down to figuring out how to make it all work without having to wait for the wireless sandbox to be raked out.

I'm hoping that someone was working on a model to determine how all of the channels could be distributed post-auction such that they don't trample each other. The unfortunate part is that the plan for redistribution seems to be based on doing larger markets first so the smaller markets are going to have to feather in to what's left frequency-wise where adjacent market interference is an issue.

 

[Nascarken 91xg]

We'll happy new years to everyone, after all said and dun ,what will be the hiest kwp on vhf low ,and what does the Fcc have to say

 

[harshness]

We'll happy new years to everyone, after all said and dun ,what will be the hiest kwp on vhf low ,and what does the Fcc have to say

Why would the maximum change?

I would expect that individual ERPs will go down as there will be more stations sharing the same frequencies but that would be situational rather than global. Some markets won't have any competition for channels while others will have considerable competition.

Perhaps after the sunset of DTV, power levels could be revisited if it turns out that the new modulation scheme is more resistant to co-channel and/or adjacent channel interference.

 

[mrc54]

Refresh my memory, what will be the top UHF channel?

 

[danristheman]

This is one for trip how many sub channels will be able a tv station be able to have? A buddy of mine said it would be 1 4k channel or 10 or more sub channels? With ATSC 3.0. I would like to know about that?

 

[comfortably_numb]

This is one for trip how many sub channels will be able a tv station be able to have? A buddy of mine said it would be 1 4k channel or 10 or more sub channels? With ATSC 3.0. I would like to know about that?

Currently it is 12-14, I believe. In this area, KMJC has 12.

 

[navychop]

That's what we have near D.C.

Current technology supports ZERO UHD or "4K" channels OTA. OTA is MPEG-2. There's MPEG-4 and now yet another "standard" that would support UHD OTA, if ATSC 3.0 ever gets implemented. And if it is, it is not an unalloyed good for us.

HEVC.

 

[osu1991]

http://www.studiodaily.com/2016/11/how-atsc-3-changes-broadcasting-for-the-better-its-not-just-4k/

How ATSC 3 Changes Broadcasting for the Better (It’s Not Just 4K)

Broadcasters will have quite a bit of latitude to decide what to do with their ATSC channels. Friedel said a single 6 MGz ATSC 3.0 channel has 36 "capacity units." (That's almost a threefold increase over the original ATSC spec, which offered 13 capacity units.) That means an ATSC 3.0 channel can hold a single UHD program, multiple HD programs (they take up six or 12 units each, depending on frame rate), or up to 36 SD programs.

 

[larrykenney]

Refresh my memory, what will be the top UHF channel?

Channel 36
Channel 37 will be left for Astronomy and then all channels above that will be gone. Stations now transmitting on channels 38 to 51 will have to move.

 

[harshness]

Stations now transmitting on channels 38 to 51 will have to move.

I'd be willing to wager that there will be a lot of movement; especially if the stations are thinking ahead about a transition to ATSC 3.0.

I think it likely that there will be a noticeable amount of shuffling even without a new modulation standard as stations find their place in the new spectrum as 1/3rd of the options have been lopped off. For me, that works out to my ABC, CBS and about ten other frequencies. Portland, Oregon already has four VHF-high and one VHF-low (300 watts). Fortunately for Portland, they don't have to worry as much about competition with nearby markets as the centers are typically 100 miles or more separated and geographic features chop up the landscape pretty nicely.