How things have changed

[Jimbo]

D

Direct (AT&T) said there are no more planned satellite launches.

That was said about 6-7 years ago ...

 

[Bruce]

The Paid Live TV ...
The numbers are ridiculous ...

Live Paid TV vs NON Paid TV ??? You Tube was mentioned earlier as Non Paid ... it can't be both ....

If you get Youtube Tv , it's PAID TV.

What streaming service gives you all your Locals with out Paying anything ???

My numbers have always included YouTube TV,, 3rd Quarter would of been a total disaster , for example, Cable/Satellite lost almost 1.8 Million , but Streaming Paid Live TV gained a tad above 1.3 Million, including YTTV at 600,000 gained, Hulu Live 300,000, etc.

So made it a loss of 465,000.

So while better for Paid Live TV, still not good for Cable/Satellite, who up till now, has lost 5,678,146 in 2023.

Also explains why the RSNs are crashing, since the majority of those losses are Comcast, Charter and DirecTV, who carry the RSNs.

 

[Bruce]

That was said about 6-7 years ago ...

Well, at least they were correct.

 

[Jimbo]

Well, at least they were correct.

That was the start of the Demise of D* really ...

 

[Bruce]

That was the start of the Demise of D* really ...

No, what started the demise of all Cable/Satellite TV was ON-Demand and DVRs, that taught people they no longer needed Live TV, so when Netflix and Hulu came along, then the others, thanks to DVR/On-Demand, which prepared subscribers for next day viewing .

DirecTV has a whole bunch of other problems, priced too expensive even compared to Comcast, old equipment are the two biggest examples.

Which has helped DirecTV to lose the most subscribers, both in percentage and actual numbers .
In 2015, when AT&T bought them, Uverse and DirecTV had 26 Million Subscribers combined, today 11 Million and that includes the new services, DirecTV by Internet and DirecTV Stream, both of which were not there in 2015.

 

[Jimbo]

No, what started the demise of all Cable/Satellite TV was ON-Demand and DVRs, that taught people they no longer needed Live TV, so when Netflix and Hulu came along, then the others, thanks to DVR/On-Demand, which prepared subscribers for next day viewing .

DirecTV has a whole bunch of other problems, priced too expensive even compared to Comcast, old equipment are the two biggest examples.

Which has helped DirecTV to lose the most subscribers, both in percentage and actual numbers .
In 2015, when AT&T bought them, Uverse and DirecTV had 26 Million Subscribers combined, today 11 Million and that includes the new services, DirecTV by Internet and DirecTV Stream, both of which were not there in 2015.

And about that time ATT said they wouldn't be launching any new Sats ... it all happened around the same time, alot was going on at that time.

ATT bought it solely to destroy it ...

 

[Bruce]

And about that time ATT said they wouldn't be launching any new Sats ... it all happened around the same time, alot was going on at that time.

ATT bought it solely to destroy it ...

That did not happen till 3.5 years after buying DirecTV-

DirecTV owner AT&T says it’s done buying satellites

“We’ve launched our last satellite,” John Donovan, CEO of AT&T Communications, said during a presentation to analysts.

spacenews.com

And again, not the cause of cord cutting as I explained, most of those leaving would of had no idea about that.

 

[Bruce]

The cable TV revenues is expected to shrink to $30 billion by 2027, according to data from Pricewaterhousecoopers reported by ABC. The loss will include revenue from subscriptions and advertisements.

The firm also forecasts that by 2027, just 49.9 million — 38% — U.S. homes will get TV from cable or satellite. This is a drop from the100 million homes who had cable in 2016.

So pretty much the same thing I have been reporting here, but I find their numbers are way off, says 49.9 Million for Sat/Cable by 2027, but as of 3rd Quarter 2023, already at 56.5 Million, with another predicted loss of 1.5 Million in the 4th Quarter.

Cable TV Revenues Expected To Shrink $30 Billion by 2027 As Cord Cutting Grows | Cord Cutters News

The future of cable looks increasingly grim. The cable TV revenues is expected to shrink to $30 billion by 2027, according to data from Pricewaterhousecoopers reported by ABC. The loss will include revenue from subscriptions and advertisements. The firm also forecasts that by 2027, just 49.9...

cordcuttersnews.com

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="
View: https://abcnews.go.com/video/embed?id=106001752" allowfullscreen frameborder="0"></iframe>

 

[Bruce]

Viewership is up for the free FAST services, more and more are probably noticing that the majority of content on Paid Live TV is available for free on them.

Tubi, Pluto TV, & The Roku All Saw Viewership Grow In February 2024 as Cord Cutters Embrace Free Streaming | Cord Cutters News

Free streaming services are becoming even more popular as cord cutters look for cheaper options. Now according to Nielsen’s monthly platform rankings, Tubi, Pluto TV, and The Roku Channel are now all among the most watched streaming services in February 2024. According to the report from...

cordcuttersnews.com

 

[Bruce]

Spectrum is best known for its TV services but in 2024 less than 50% of its customers are cable subscribers.

In the first quarter of 2023, 52.5% of Spectrum residential customers did not pay for a TV service. Now in 2024 at the end of the first quarter that number has jumped to 56%.

Most Spectrum Customers No Longer Pay for Cable TV Services | Cord Cutters News

Spectrum is best known for its TV services but in 2024 less than 50% of its customers are cable subscribers. In the first quarter of 2023, 52.5% of Spectrum residential customers did not pay for a TV service. Now in 2024 at the end of the first quarter that number has jumped to 56%. Yesterday, […]

cordcuttersnews.com

 

[Bruce]

Just found this, which was written before the 4th Quarter 2023 and 1st Quarter 2024 numbers were out-

Those factors are leading to a dramatic decline in total US pay-TV household penetration from the industry’s halcyon days of 2009-2010, when penetration exceeded 85%, to 2023’s expected household penetration of only 42%, which will drop even further to 32% in 2028, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest report, “United States Pay-TV Forecast,” reveals that the total linear US pay-TV subscriptions will fall below 50 million by 2025, as viewers continue turning away from cable TV, satellite TV, and broadband-delivered IPTV subscriptions.

By the way, based on those 4th and 1st quarter written after, Cable/Satellite, linear TV, will hit that number the end of 2024, not 2025.

Traditional US pay-TV services face continued decline due to cord-cutters and cord-nevers, says GlobalData

Traditional US pay-TV services face continued decline due to cord-cutters and cord-nevers, says GlobalData

www.globaldata.com

 

[Yespage]

I'd say the big contributor at this point will be the transition of broadcasting content away from cable/sat. Some sports programming was shown only on cable/sat channels or you need a subscription to sat/cable to gain access to the sports online. With this transitioning to flat out simulcast (and the Internet being a better picture often), the need from Cable/Sat itself is decreasing. Add to this the wider distribution of broadband, cable/sat companies are becoming obsolete.

With the obsolescence, however, could unexpectedly come leverage. With the widespread distribution, one has to wonder how rates could remain as they are for cable/sat. Is it possible that cable/sat can drag rates back down or better yet, do the Dish Flex Pack thing and provide options. A la carte streaming, a la carte on the sat/cable.

 

[Bruce]

I'd say the big contributor at this point will be the transition of broadcasting content away from cable/sat.

Already happening and will continue to grow.

For example, just announced, the new Frasier series on P+ will be on CBS almost a year later.

As I have posted before, the big plan is premiere on the paid streaming service, then on the Broadcast/Cable Channels ( also paid by per sub fees) months or a year later.

But, of course,that will result in less content then what we are getting now.

Some sports programming was shown only on cable/sat channels or you need a subscription to sat/cable to gain access to the sports online. With this transitioning to flat out simulcast (and the Internet being a better picture often), the need from Cable/Sat itself is decreasing. Add to this the wider distribution of broadband, cable/sat companies are becoming obsolete.

Already there, when you get the vast majority of Paid Live TV content, streaming exclusives on the streaming services, even live content (sports, news, networks, cable channels) with them in a much better picture/sound and less expensive.

A lot have already realized this, by the end of 2025, there will be more household without a Pay Live TV Service ( streaming, cable, satellite) then with.

We are already there with Cable/Satellite (55 Million households), 76 Million Households do not have a Cable/Satellite service.

Is it possible that cable/sat can drag rates back down or better yet, do the Dish Flex Pack thing and provide options. A la carte streaming, a la carte on the sat/cable.

If they are going to do something like that, they need to do it now.

But I doubt it would result in much less expensive monthly bills.

For example, last September, Spectrum was able to get rid of a lot of Disney owned channels, so that eliminated the per sub fees for those, what does Spectrum do, bill does not change and still goes up in January 2024.

Which means customers are paying even more for less content.

 

[Jimbo]

So at the end of this year we can expect satellite /cable to drop even more. So say 15 million leave this year, we would have only 13.2 million left. So by the end of 2025 or middle of 2026, will bring the collapse for both cable and satellite - if the same churn continues at that same rate. That is much sooner than I thought. I gave DISH to 2028 before it doesn't stay profitable, but that was a guess. I had heard that DISH only has like 6 million satellite customers now. That is like a million a year they are losing.

So, when they eventually quit making a profit, do you expect them to just turn OFF the Signal and go home ....
All the existing subs just have No signal from them ????

NOT gonna happen.

I've said thru the years that thew Sats are up there are good till at least 2029/2030 ...
D* will still be around till at least then. IMO

 

[dishdude]

So, when they eventually quit making a profit, do you expect them to just turn OFF the Signal and go home ....
All the existing subs just have No signal from them ????

NOT gonna happen.

I've said thru the years that thew Sats are up there are good till at least 2029/2030 ...
D* will still be around till at least then. IMO

I'm not saying you're wrong, but the churn is going to have to slowdown at some point, they can't keep losing 200k-300k subscribers per quarter through the end of the decade. The bleeding doesn't seem to be slowing down.

 

[MikeD-C05]

So, when they eventually quit making a profit, do you expect them to just turn OFF the Signal and go home ....
All the existing subs just have No signal from them ????

NOT gonna happen.

I've said thru the years that thew Sats are up there are good till at least 2029/2030 ...
D* will still be around till at least then. IMO

Will see if DISH satellite TV service will still be around in 2030. I really doubt it. Echostar might still be in business but I see DISH selling out or merging or being bought out for the parts. They are simply losing to many subs to keep it profitable long term.

 

[savarese04]

I've said thru the years that thew Sats are up there are good till at least 2029/2030 ...
D* will still be around till at least then. IMO

Those two things have nothing to do with each other though. Just because the sats are up there and working doesn't mean the folks on the ground have the money to operate.

A previous employer took out a 3 year lease on an office. They went out of business in one year. Just because they had a 3 year lease didn't mean they were guaranteed to stick around. Same thing.

 

[NYDutch]

So, when they eventually quit making a profit, do you expect them to just turn OFF the Signal and go home ....
All the existing subs just have No signal from them ????

NOT gonna happen.

I've said thru the years that thew Sats are up there are good till at least 2029/2030 ...
D* will still be around till at least then. IMO

How bad did it get for Orby before they decided to "just turn OFF the Signal and go home"?

 

[Jimbo]

How bad did it get for Orby before they decided to "just turn OFF the Signal and go home"?

Orby wasn't a company that has been in business for 30 years ....

Most never even knew they existed.

 

[Bruce]

So, when they eventually quit making a profit, do you expect them to just turn OFF the Signal and go home ....
All the existing subs just have No signal from them ????

NOT gonna happen.

Yes it will, do you actually believe when the company is losing money, no hope for a turn around, they will keep service up just so not to hurt the subscribers left?

Not how business economics works.