How things have changed

[Bruce]

I was responding to a comment about people moving away from cable in part to watch on their own schedule.

Which you can do with streaming also, but the main part of that story was the unprofitability of being a TV Provider.

We have had many smaller Cable Services give up, medium sized ( Frontier, Wide Open West) gave up, Fios not longer does new customer sign ups with it’s TV Service ( goes with YTTV) and Altice ( former Cablevision) announced they are looking into doing the same.

I give it about 2-3 years before a big one does the same, probably a Satellite service because they do not have a broadband service to help offset the costs.

I would of said DirecTV before Dish, because of losing about 1.5-2 Million subs a year and profits shrink by $800 Million every six months.

If Dish can get their finance issues handled ( caused by the 5G money pit), they will outlast DirecTV.

 

[NYDutch]

Which you can do with streaming also, but the main part of that story was the unprofitability of being a TV Provider.

We have had many smaller Cable Services give up, medium sized ( Frontier, Wide Open West) give up, Fios not longer does new customer sign ups with it’s TV Service ( goes with YTTV) and Altice ( former Cablevision) announced they are looking into doing the same.

I give it about 2-3 years before a big one does the same, probably a Satellite service because they do not have a broadband service to help offset the costs.

I would of said DirecTV before Dish, because of losing about 1.5-2 Million subs a year and profits shrink by $800 Million every six months.

If Dish can get their finance issues handled ( caused by the 5G money pit), they will outlast DirecTV.

Charter/Spectrum is strongly pushing their streaming service as well. I expect as a prelude to dropping their cable TV offerings. I might consider them for streaming except for the fact that you can only get the locals when you're connected to their Internet service. Not good if you travel much as we have and hope to be again.

 

[Bruce]

Charter/Spectrum is strongly pushing their streaming service as well. I expect as a prelude to dropping their cable TV offerings. I might consider them for streaming except for the fact that you can only get the locals when you're connected to their Internet service. Not good if you travel much as we have and hope to be again.

And pay that ******* Broadcast Channel Fee.

I am glad the FCC is about to make that rule change, then people will really know what they are paying.

It will help make some changes, maybe lower prices for the first 2 years, because if they advertise the real price, they will never get a new customer again.

 

[Bruce]

Budget director Laura Larsen said there’s been a “dramatic drop-off” in cable revenues in just a few years. In the budget year that ended in June 2020, about 106,000 city households paid for cable. That number has plummeted since to fewer than 60,000 households, Larsen said — a roughly 44% decline. As fewer people subscribe to cable TV, the city is collecting less from its 5% franchise fee charged on gross cable revenues.

The United States Census, in 2022, showed there were about 247,000 households in Baltimore, which means just over 24% of households are paying for cable TV.

So many people are cutting cable that it’s hurting Baltimore’s finances

Since July of 2020, the number of city cable subscribers has dropped by more than 40,000 — reducing the revenue the city collects from its 5% franchise fee.

www.thebaltimorebanner.com

This has to be hurting the local RSN, MASN.

 

[Bruce]

This opinion is not a big surprise, the potential for profits are gone for these smaller providers, for the medium sized as well, like Fios, Wide Open West and Frontier for example.

MyBundle CEO: ‘Hundreds’ of cable operators to drop traditional pay TV in coming years

Three small-sized cable television operators have announced plans to wind down their traditional pay TV services and push customers toward streaming cable-like replacement products. | "The Tier 2 and Tier 3 video landscape will look markedly different three years from now than it does right...

www.streamtvinsider.com

 

[Bruce]

In a survey conducted by consumer experience consulting firm DISQO, 30% of cable TV subscribers said they would discontinue their service next year. The study, which canvased more than 3,000 adults from DISQO’s audience, also found that 58% of streaming subscribers would keep their current offerings, with 21% expected to increase their subscriptions, and another 21% expecting to reduce them.

If true and I assume they mean Satellite TV also, there are now about 57 Million who subscribe to Cable/Sat.TV, that is 17 Million gone.

Now I do not believe it will be that high, but it it is just half that, still 8.5 Million, which is still a increase over 2023, which is predicted about 6 million leaving.

Survey Finds 30% of Cable TV Subscribers Plan to Cut the Cord Next Year | Cord Cutters News

The trend of cord cutting won’t be slowing down, more cable TV subscribers expected to cancel their service in 2024. In a survey conducted by consumer experience consulting firm DISQO, 30% of cable TV subscribers said they would discontinue their service next year. The study, which canvased more...

cordcuttersnews.com

 

[Bruce]

Streaming continues it’s gains, cable/Satellite TV drops more-

Cable TV's Share of Viewership Falls Even as More People Watched Television | Cord Cutters News

December saw a swell of people tune into television — with the last day of the year marking the most-watched day behind the Super Bowl as people tuned into New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day programming — but cable saw its share of viewership fall to a new low. That’s according to data from […]

cordcuttersnews.com

 

[MikeD-C05]

So at the end of this year we can expect satellite /cable to drop even more. So say 15 million leave this year, we would have only 13.2 million left. So by the end of 2025 or middle of 2026, will bring the collapse for both cable and satellite - if the same churn continues at that same rate. That is much sooner than I thought. I gave DISH to 2028 before it doesn't stay profitable, but that was a guess. I had heard that DISH only has like 6 million satellite customers now. That is like a million a year they are losing.

 

[Bruce]

So at the end of this year we can expect satellite /cable to drop even more. So say 17 million leave this year like last ,we would have only 11.2 million left. So by the end of 2025 will bring the collapse for both cable and satellite- if the same churn continues at that same rate.

Before the 4th quarter report, Cable/Satellite is at, roughly, 56 Million ( 7 years ago, had 100 Million).

Streaming (YTTV, etc) has about, roughly, 15 Million.

In 2017, there were 126 Million Households (today 131 Million), so paid Live TV has lost 29 Million in 7 years.

Today, total without paid Live TV is 60 Million.

Cable/Satellite is estimated to lose 10-12 Million more in 2024, but Streaming Live TV is estimated to pick up 3-4 Million.

So by the end of 2024, total paid Live TV is expected to be, roughly 63 Million ( give or take a million or two), those without, 68 Million ( give or take).

 

[navychop]

Cable/Satellite is estimated to lose 10-12 Million more in 2024, but Streaming Live TV is estimated to pick up 3-4 Million.

Where did the others go? Give up on TV and dust off the library card?

 

[meStevo]

Where did the others go? Give up on TV and dust off the library card?

There's a growing population that don't pay for any TV service. Youtube and other forms of entertainment are sufficient and/or they're part-time streamers, etc.

This was what really transitioned us off of DirecTV when we switched several years ago - I was enjoying watching content creators on Twitch more than I was watching West Wing reruns on Bravo on my TiVo. I've been a supporter of SilentSentry for more than 5 years.

Then when the time came we gave YoutubeTV a shot and have had it for a couple years. Now next month we'll have no core TV service for at least the summer I expect, and are paring back other services as our habits change.

When the kids get out of school for the summer will probably dial a couple things back up (finances permitting, wife is a year into a career change narrating on Audible), with Prime and probably 1-2 other services serving as the backbone for our household subscriptions.

 

[Bruce]

Where did the others go? Give up on TV and dust off the library card?

You know where they went, to streaming services that are not Paid Live TV, same place I will be at the end of the month.

Since services like Paramount/Peacock/etc offer Live feeds, plus the majority of all the other content from Paid Live TV On Demand ( and in much better quality) the same or next day, who needs Live TV , even local Live News has apps.

Again-all commercial free, 4K, 1080P, no box fees, etc, etc
Hulu/Disney/ESPN
Paramount+ w/Showtime
Peacock
MAX (HBO + Discovery owned, and a lot more )
AMC+

All for $77, the only thing you might be missing is a few sports ( by the beginning of 2025, that will no longer be a issue), A&E and a bunch of fringe channels that show nothing but reruns ( where much of those reruns are also on paid and free streaming services like Pluto).

 

[meStevo]

There's all the FAST (Free Ad-Supported Streaming Television) services. There are probably more than a thousand channels you can stream across different services as long as you're cool living with the ads.

Google's Chromecast integrated like 800 of them into the guide. Amazon offers some as well on Prime, the rebranded IMDB TV as Freevee. My Samsung TVs have their own FAST channels too.

(warning, i have only clicked through this)


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQv6JREYYV8

Think they way they've added them to the guide is pretty great, too. My paid YoutubeTV is just one of the sections.

 

[dishdude]

There's a growing population that don't pay for any TV service. Youtube and other forms of entertainment are sufficient and/or they're part-time streamers, etc.

I would say 80% of the viewing in my house is YouTube. OTA is rarely used other than the local news, but that's also available on YT. I have Dish, but pretty much only watch a bit of MSNBC as it's on in the background (muted unless something big happens) while I work. Dish and OTA could disappear and I wouldn't miss them as long as I have YT.

 

[telstar_1]

Streaming's interesting. Tonight Netflix didn't have the obscure movie I was looking for but "referred" me to AMC+. Has anyone heard of that?

 

[mwdxer1]

D

So at the end of this year we can expect satellite /cable to drop even more. So say 15 million leave this year, we would have only 13.2 million left. So by the end of 2025 or middle of 2026, will bring the collapse for both cable and satellite - if the same churn continues at that same rate. That is much sooner than I thought. I gave DISH to 2028 before it doesn't stay profitable, but that was a guess. I had heard that DISH only has like 6 million satellite customers now. That is like a million a year they are losing.

Dish & Cable are already planning (and have in some cases) switched to streaming. They see the handwriting on the wall probably more than we see it. Direct TV and well as Spectrum are moving to streaming. Direct (AT&T) said there are no more planned satellite launches. They are hoping that the majority of subs are happy to move to a stream. There are some downfalls with streaming though. Out here is rural Oregon, Spectrum will go down for a couple hours at times. People will not like that. But we do have Verizon and others, so there are more options, plus free OTA (36 channels).

 

[mwdxer1]

I would say 80% of the viewing in my house is YouTube. OTA is rarely used other than the local news, but that's also available on YT. I have Dish, but pretty much only watch a bit of MSNBC as it's on in the background (muted unless something big happens) while I work. Dish and OTA could disappear and I wouldn't miss them as long as I have YT.

I watch You Tube a lot myself. You can almost everything on there.

 

[Jimbo]

The Paid Live TV ...
The numbers are ridiculous ...

Live Paid TV vs NON Paid TV ??? You Tube was mentioned earlier as Non Paid ... it can't be both ....

If you get Youtube Tv , it's PAID TV.

What streaming service gives you all your Locals with out Paying anything ???

 

[Bobby]

The Paid Live TV ...
The numbers are ridiculous ...

Live Paid TV vs NON Paid TV ??? You Tube was mentioned earlier as Non Paid ... it can't be both ....

If you get Youtube Tv , it's PAID TV.

What streaming service gives you all your Locals with out Paying anything ???

Youtube TV is paid TV, Youtube is not.

 

[Jimbo]

Youtube TV is paid TV, Youtube is not.

Correct ...