How can BD continue their lead and succeed?

[JoeSp]

Four simple steps:

First, the BD group must match the low cost HD-DVD players this XMAX.

Second, the BD manufactures must start supporting all features of BD including BD-Java 2.0 and all sound codecs.

Third, the BD studios must stop holding back and flood the market with AAA titles this XMAS.

Fourth, the BD group needs to cut M$ off at the pass and throw whatever money it takes to either keep Warner nuetral or get Warner to support BD only.

Accomplish these four things by XMAS and M$ will have lost a $150 mil bet. Accomplish half of these and you keep your lead. Do none of these or allow Warner to go HD-DVD exclusive and you not only insure two formats surving for the next few years but you also insure that neither will replace DVD.

 

[meStevo]

Are BD players expected to get that low? I honestly haven't been keep tabs on their trends or expectations.

 

[jgantert]

There's not even any BD Profile 1.1 players anounced yet, except for the $2000 Denon. I doubt there will be any cheap full featured players this holiday season.

I honestly think that is BR's biggest drawback. It's too dependent on the PS3, because the PS3 is the only full featured affordable BR player.

I don't think the studio's pumping out more movies will help [either format] until there is a larger player base.

-John

 

[navychop]

Actually, I think the $1,000 Denon will also be 1.1 compliant, but can't find out for sure. And any sub $200 HD DVD player is not likely to be full featured either. But that's the point. The vast majority of future buyers will not be interested in high end audio or internet extras. I think the internet connection will be confusing to most, and mostly unused. Best use will be to easily update firmware. So a cheap player that plugs into their TV set is all many will want. Yes, what a waste.

I suspect in a few years we'll see whole entertainment systems sold: HDTV, receiver, wireless speakers, HD disc player, and all easily assembled with idiot proof cables and plugs.

That new, cheaper Sony player is apparently selling quite well. Better be even cheaper ones by Xmas.

More movies = more incentive to buy.

Most importantly, I think Disney needs to stay in the Blu-ray camp. Second, BD+ needs to work, at least for the most part. If it's cracked early - and completely - there's little incentive for Fox to release anything, and for Disney to stay exclusive. At that point, it really would likely come down to who has the largest installed base, which connects to who is the cheapest. Granted, with the PS3 the Blu-ray camp massively outnumbers (5 to 1, last I heard) the # of HD DVD players, but that might not hold. If title sales track down to near parity, it could easily swing to HD DVD. This scenario is doubtful, but possible. Somebody at the baloney company should pay a very high personal price for letting Paramount "get away."

 

[John Kotches]

Actually, I think the $1,000 Denon will also be 1.1 compliant, but can't find out for sure. And any sub $200 HD DVD player is not likely to be full featured either.

Incorrect. To get an HD-DVD logo it has to support:

1. Full interactivity
2. Decoding of all mandatory A/V codecs
3. Persistent storage
4. Network connectivity
5. Dual Video Decoders for PiP

.

This is the full spec.

But that's the point. The vast majority of future buyers will not be interested in high end audio or internet extras. I think the internet connection will be confusing to most, and mostly unused. Best use will be to easily update firmware. So a cheap player that plugs into their TV set is all many will want. Yes, what a waste.

This is no different than DVD though. My editor refers to it as the "race for the bottom.".

I suspect in a few years we'll see whole entertainment systems sold: HDTV, receiver, wireless speakers, HD disc player, and all easily assembled with idiot proof cables and plugs.

They'll just make a better idiot. Consumers come up with ways that are never dreamed of to foul up an "idiot proof" solution

That new, cheaper Sony player is apparently selling quite well. Better be even cheaper ones by Xmas.

More movies = more incentive to buy.

What is "quite well" in this context? Curiosity makes me wonder about that.

Most importantly, I think Disney needs to stay in the Blu-ray camp. Second, BD+ needs to work, at least for the most part. If it's cracked early - and completely - there's little incentive for Fox to release anything, and for Disney to stay exclusive.

Alternatively if BD+ is cracked (and I believe it will be) it's more of a matter of whether or not Fox has any reason not to release on either format.

At that point, it really would likely come down to who has the largest installed base, which connects to who is the cheapest. Granted, with the PS3 the Blu-ray camp massively outnumbers (5 to 1, last I heard) the # of HD DVD players, but that might not hold.

But they aren't buying into comparable numbers of titles or we wouldn't see the ~2:1 or 3:2 sales differential.

If title sales track down to near parity, it could easily swing to HD DVD. This scenario is doubtful, but possible. Somebody at the baloney company should pay a very high personal price for letting Paramount "get away."

Time will tell what changes (if any) this has on the actual marketplace. Right now it's all theory and speculation. Of course that won't stop us; will it?

Cheers,

 

[navychop]

"They'll just make a better idiot. "

:haha

 

[John Kotches]

"They'll just make a better idiot. "

:haha

You laugh out of sympathy as you know it's true

Cheers,

 

[CochiseGuy]

Actually, I think the $1,000 Denon will also be 1.1 compliant, but can't find out for sure. And any sub $200 HD DVD player is not likely to be full featured either.

- As John indicated, to have the HD DVD logo, a player has to support ALL the specs.

- The announced MSRP for the Denon is $2k,not $1k (OK, $1,999.99)

- Its been delayed until 1Q 2008, But, it is my understanding it supports all BD specs. Oh wait - I meant the 2nd round of specs (PiPn& memory). I;m not sure about round 3 - network connectivity.

- Well there will be more at CEDIA, but it was posted by Dave Vaughn of Home Theater Spot on the AVS Insider forum that there will be no BD 1.1 players in 2007, and no BD Insider challenged it.

- No wonder the BDA tried to end this thing this summer by offering Universal 'generous incentives' to at least go neutral.

 

[John Kotches]

Cochise:

I left off dual video decoders for PIP

Cheers,

 

[navychop]

You laugh out of sympathy as you know it's true

Cheers,

Oh, yes. I'm sure all of us that have served in the military have a special fondness for the "better idiot" comment.

- As John indicated, to have the HD DVD logo, a player has to support ALL the specs.

- The announced MSRP for the Denon is $2k,not $1k (OK, $1,999.99)

- Its been delayed until 1Q 2008, But, it is my understanding it supports all BD specs. Oh wait - I meant the 2nd round of specs (PiPn& memory). I;m not sure about round 3 - network connectivity.

- Well there will be more at CEDIA, but it was posted by Dave Vaughn of Home Theater Spot on the AVS Insider forum that there will be no BD 1.1 players in 2007, and no BD Insider challenged it.

- No wonder the BDA tried to end this thing this summer by offering Universal 'generous incentives' to at least go neutral.

There are 2 Denons. One at around $2,000 and one half the price.

Full featured: How many outputs? Of what type? All simultaneously live? How about the ability to load several discs in the machine at once? Maybe a unit with an amp built in, just hook up TV and speakers?

In other words, I was not referring to the basic specs. I'm stating that I'm sure there will be a broad price range. The $200 machines will be basic. More money gets you what- multiple optical outputs? More connectors, etc? One way or another, there will be machines that cost more and provide more, so it won't be a total commodity market. There will be buyers for nicer, more feature laden machines.

Could they really fail to get out a profile 1.1 machine this year, and for less than $1,000 - much less fail to produce a -live version? If they really fail at that, then yes, maybe Sony will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, once again.