Mike, there's two big problems with your logic...
1) Many (most?) commercials are sold to be run during a certain program. So if Doritos (for example) didn't get enough viewers for it's Super Bowl spot, Fox can't run the spot again during "The Simpsons".
2) There are 210 markets across the country. Only 56 of them are metered. Only the metered markets can supply "overnights" or anything close to real time ratings. For the other 154 markets, ratings results don't come in until ~a month and a half after the ratings period has ended. I think ratings actually start today. But the majority of locals won't know how many people watched the shows today until mid-April.
Make goods are used to make up for viewer shortages
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