DIRECTV unlikely to keep NFL Sunday Ticket
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True. But, they could have taken Apples $3-4 billion for an MLS-style deal and then got another $2-3 billion or more for the broadcast rights. That’s the supposed terms of the Apple/MLS deal… MLS can still sell national games to ESPN/Fox for broadcast/cable, but they have to stream on Apple.
They couldn’t take the $4-5 billion for the broadcast rights and then get $1 billion from Apple.
Apple TV is a set top box sold by Apple that runs tvOS and supports the 'TV' app (which is also on iPhones) that accesses the Apple TV+ service as well as other apps for other streaming services.
Apple TV+ is the streaming service Apple offers for $4.99 a month or whatever it is, that is available on iPhone, Apple TV and most other set tops.
Apple would be selling this as an add on to Apple TV+. It would not require you own an Apple product, you would just need an Apple ID (which is free to obtain, and is basically the same as your Netflix account etc. except it is a single account used across all of Apple's products and services)
Thank You ....
I unfortunately had to make an Apple ID earlier in the year, just to watch a baseball game of all things ....
Question is, can I remember it ....
I had 1 when working for the last 10 years, but never really used it once I was logged in.
Yup, although in the case of "Apple TV Channels" which are third-party services sold and accessed directly inside the Apple TV app -- including Showtime, Starz, Paramount+, AMC+, Epix, etc. -- you don't even have to first subscribe to their own Apple TV+ (the way Amazon first makes you subscribe to their own Prime Video before adding on those same third-party subscriptions via their "Amazon Channels" platform). From what I've read the forthcoming Apple MLS service will work the same way, i.e. you won't be forced to also get Apple TV+. Also, a select number of those MLS games will be available inside Apple TV+ too to appeal to more casual soccer fans and, I'm sure, increase interest in the sport and stimulate more subscriptions to the full set of matches.
Yeah I suppose there's a SMALL chance they'd make NFLST a channel and not require an Apple TV+ subscription, but that would be throwing away money and potential growth in their Apple TV+ audience.
What I expect they'd do is make it part of Apple TV+, and only allow you to subscribe to NFLST if you are on a yearly Apple TV+ subscription (to avoid people subscribing for just Sept-Dec)
That way they'd have more people who are Apple TV+ subscribers year round, and it will become a normal part of their streaming experience like Amazon which many people have only because they get Prime for the free shipping.
Once people get hooked on a few shows on Apple TV+ they are less likely to drop the subscription, even if they stop subscribing to NFLST (i.e. if your out of market favorite team goes 3-13 this season maybe you decide $300 isn't worth it to watch their games next season)
That's what I was predicting as well, until they announced that they're doing the opposite with MLS:
"users will have to purchase the unnamed MLS streaming app on Apple TV. However, viewers will not have to purchase Apple TV+ to purchase the streaming service, nor will they have to purchase a physical Apple TV product"
A breakdown of Apple's Major League Soccer deal
A detailed breakdown of Apple's new, ten-year MLS media rights agreement by guest writer Adam Gostomelsky.
www.sportsmediawatch.com
I suppose it's possible with NFLST that Apple would just say that the price includes a "free" one-year subscription to Apple TV+ (which would functionally be the same thing you're describing). But Apple tends to be pretty consistent in how they do things. It looks like the MLS service will just be another choice in the Apple TV Channels line-up (albeit the one they'll tout most aggressively, I'm sure), distributed and viewed exclusively within the Apple TV app/website. So I tend to think that that's how they'd treat NFLST too.
Now if Amazon were to land NLFST, which at this point looks unlikely, yeah, I do think they'd make a Prime membership (or at least a Prime Video subscription) a prerequisite to buy it, the same way they make it a prerequisite to buy third-party subscriptions like Showtime via the Amazon Channels platform. But Apple doesn't require a subscription to Apple TV+ to buy those same services via Apple TV Channels. I think it's just a difference in the two companies' philosophies, with Apple being more pro-consumer.
The more I think about the deal, the less sense it makes to me for Apple. Although of course I'm not privvy to all the relevant facts and figures that they have. But I have a hard time seeing how Apple could make a profit on NLFST or how the amount of money they'd lose on the deal could be recouped via increased profits from a greater number of subscriptions to other services inside the Apple TV app (or, even less plausible, from increased hardware sales or subscriptions to Apple Music).
I think the biggest opportunity on the horizon that could get Apple another situation as close as possible to the one they have with MLS (which is what they say they're after) would be to strike a major deal with the NBA. It looks like the RSN model, for watching the great majority of in-market games, is falling apart with Sinclair's Bally Sports business faltering. Combine that with the fact that the contracts for those national games (i.e. the ones airing exclusively on ABC/ESPN, TNT, and NBA Network and therefore aren't available via either the in-market RSNs or the NBA League Pass out-of-market package) expires with the 2024-25 season. So for the right money, I could imagine some kind of massive deal between Apple and the NBA starting with the '25-26 season, possibly sooner.
That is the point. MLS is one of the least popular sports in the US that is popular enough to get on TV regularly. The NFL is the most popular sport by a large margin. Further, in my experience, many (most?) people that like soccer do not watch other sports with great regularity. In fact, I know many soccer fans who do little by s***talk all other sports beside soccer when others are having sports conversations. This makes MLS perfect for what Apple did with it. The 0.5%, which is generous based on the ratings, of Americans who like MLS can find it, and everybody else can move on. It brings less value to linear sports channels, because its fans don’t watch other sports. IMHO.
Apples to oranges vis the NFL. The rights that Apple is discussing in the media now simply are not for sale. ST, as it has always existed, is for sale. Nothing else. Everything else has been sold.
The question for Apple remains how many people are willing to buy an Apple TV+ subscription, or spend $X on new Apple products per year, which will be the predicate for this predicated product. Apparently that answer is “not enough”.
Apples to oranges vis the NFL. The rights that Apple is discussing in the media now simply are not for sale. ST, as it has always existed, is for sale. Nothing else. Everything else has been sold.
The question for Apple remains how many people are willing to buy an Apple TV+ subscription, or spend $X on new Apple products per year, which will be the predicate for this predicated product. Apparently that answer is “not enough”.
What is taking so long? "The longer the NFL waits to reach a deal, the less time a new owner of the rights will have to market the product for next season."My guess is things aren't going the way the NFL wants." Update here. NFL Sunday Ticket still up for grabs as Apple pushes for flexibility with game rights
That won't work for bars and restaraunts...most don't have high speed internet..
Nor is there much else on Apple TV+ of interest to bars and restaurants, more than some soccer (see above) and a couple of baseball games lost in a sea of 100s of others.
Which is why, no matter who “wins” this bidding, DirecTV will continue as a reseller on the commercial side for years to come.
And yet in their negotiations with the NFL, Apple is pointing to their deal with the MLS and talking about how they want something more like that. I don't think Apple is as impressed with the NFL as you are.
No one will have to buy Apple hardware in order to watch NFLST via Apple if they were to win the contract. They will undoubtedly run the package via their Apple TV app, which is available on lots of third-party devices. Apple is such a high-profile beloved brand already that I can't imagine that whatever incremental marketing buzz that they get from an association with the NFL by distributing NFLST would result in any significant difference in terms of sales of iPhones or even Apple TVs.
As for increased subscriptions to Apple TV+, keep in mind that by itself, it only costs $5/mo or $50/yr (and is itself almost certainly still a cost, not profit, center for Apple). It's possible (though very much questionable) that they'd require a subscription to this inexpensive service in order to buy the $300 NFLST package but, even so, I seriously doubt that whatever increased Apple TV+ subscriptions they get would offset the loss they'd take on the NFLST contract itself.
But it's not just about losing money on the deal. Apple is willing to spend money on something now if they think it will build consumer loyalty to their brand long-term. The fact that the content inside NFLST depends on your location is a real buzz-kill for Apple. They look at the tangled mess of sports rights and find it very un-Apple-like. They like simplicity. But local games (i.e. the games that are most popular) are blacked out on NFLST, since Paramount and Fox have those streaming rights locked up until 2033.
As someone who has followed Apple since the turn of the century, I have to say that NFLST, as it currently exists, just doesn't feel like something Apple would do. Taking what DTV currently does through their own NFLST app and just sticking that same product, at around the same price, inside the Apple TV app isn't innovative or groundbreaking. Think back to Apple's first foray into media, with the iTunes Music Store and the iPod. That truly transformed the music industry. And what they're doing with MLS, I think, is creating a new, simple, fan-friendly model of how all sports might work in the future. But NFLST, as it *must* exist given the contracts the NFL already has in place with Paramount and Fox? Nah.
Who says that the winning bidder would be “sticking with the same product”? There’s been mention of possibly being able to offer single day subscriptions and single team season subscriptions…..
No it isn't. It isn't remotely mathematically impossible not to lose money on ST. Charge $333 per sub, get 12,000,000 million subs. Bam! Mathematically possible. Not trying to divide by zero here.
You don't say... as in you haven't said that at least a couple dozen times.
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