Better get Netflix for NFL on Xmas

[Jimbo]

If you are in the teams local market its irrelevant. Games must be shown on local stations if they are on a different platform (ESPN, Amazon, another streaming service) in the teams local market (the one where the team is located) they are shown on OTA TV. Markets outside of that are not allowed to.

However, It IS Relevent to the other 98% of the Population ...

 

[Jimbo]

Making fans chase their favorite team across 4 or more streaming services seems unfair to me, but since people are willing to pay for it, more power to the NFL I guess.

I too find it ridiculous that to follow ones team you know have to have 4 or more services.

All teams I follow I have to get via Sunday Ticket, other than the Lions.
They would be on my OTA, which is always a fight with Cleveland (Ugh) ... particularly when the Broadcast rules change this year (or is it next year) when the network doesn't designate the channel your on.

 

[Bruce]

And there is talk that the NFL will opt out of the current deal 4 years early - at the end of the 2029 season - and renegotiate deals.

At that point, will the streamers be flighting for more live sports content? I could see it. This article talks about all the special event days being sold separately - Thanksgiving games, opening night, etc to the highest bidder.

I too find it ridiculous that to follow ones team you know have to have 4 or more services.

There is no way the Broadcast Networks will be able to afford a new rights agreement in 2029.

First, they probably will be double what they are today, by 2029, an extreme loss in per sub fees because of cord cutting and Pay Live TV services shutting down, the revenue will not be there.

Then advertising, which is a lot worse then they are letting on, was $60 Billion for ads when Broadcast/Cable had about 100 Million Households subscribing to Pay Live TV, now that there are only 70 Million and dropping, 5 million last year, 6 million this year and that is still after the estimated gains by YTTV.

Then we have streaming services that did not exists when Pay Live TV had that many subs, which has been pulling ads from Broadcast/Cable Channels.

for example-

Even with expected higher TV revenues from the Paris Olympics and the presidential political advertising season, 2024 national TV advertising is projected to decline 2.6% to $27.6 billion, according to MoffettNathanson Research.

According to Television News Daily, which reported on MoffettNathanson’s findings, things won’t get much better in 2025, especially with no Olympics or political advertising bumps. National TV is expected to decline another 12.3% to $24.2 billion.

Imagine what it will be in 2029.

Networks will not have the revenue needed to pay that much more in fees, doubtful they would have enough to pay the current deal by 2029.

Competitive Info: National Linear TV Revenue To Decline.

Even with expected higher TV revenues from the Paris Olympics and the presidential political advertising season, 2024 national TV advertising is projected to decline 2.6% to $27.6 billion, according to

www.insideradio.com

 

[comfortably_numb]

Juicy comments on this article.

Beyond money, NFL jumped at Christmas games on Netflix for 2 key reasons

Roughly 85% of games will continue to be broadcast on free TV, league execs said. But nationally, fans should expect to need streaming service for a handful of big national games.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[Bruce]

The takeaways from that article-

First, the NFL has continued to tiptoe away from its cable-television model. The league already broadcast a playoff game exclusively on NBC’s Peacock streaming service in January, a paid home that nonetheless drew a larger audience than the previous year’s broadcast of the same timed wild-card game, the league said.

Who has more subscribers in the United States then all that have Paid Live TV……Netflix

Second, the NFL increasingly looks to increase its presence outside of the United States.

Who has the most subscribers in the world…….Netflix.

On this current trajectory, I can see Netflix making a major play for some to all the rights in 2029.

The NFL has really wanted to expand TV coverage globally, Netflix would be the perfect partner since it is worldwide.

If you are in the teams local market its irrelevant. Games must be shown on local stations if they are on a different platform (ESPN, Amazon, another streaming service) in the teams local market (the one where the team is located) they are shown on OTA TV. Markets outside of that are not allowed to.

Rules/Laws can be changed.

Streaming already has different laws regarding carrying Network/Locals /Affiliates

There is no reason to believe they cannot be charged regarding the NFL by 2029.

 

[Mr Tony]

Rules/Laws can be changed.

Streaming already has different laws regarding carrying Network/Locals /Affiliates

There is no reason to believe they cannot be charged regarding the NFL by 2029.

I'll take my chance
Point is...RIGHT NOW, not 2029, not 2038, not next year if you live in the teams local market (where the stadium is located) you dont need any other option than OTA because right now law forces them to carry it on a local station.

 

[comfortably_numb]

My takeaway from the comments on the article:

People gripe and complain about games being streamed across multiple providers, but when it comes down to it they still pay up.

The profit machine will keep grinding until people choose not to pay!

 

[AZ.]

I'll take my chance
Point is...RIGHT NOW, not 2029, not 2038, not next year if you live in the teams local market (where the stadium is located) you dont need any other option than OTA because right now law forces them to carry it on a local station.

Ive always wondered how many people dont live in their old states anymore? Most people that I know 90% or more we not born in Arizona and came from someplace else. But this is a retirement state no doubt!

 

[Bruce]

Ive always wondered how many people dont live in their old states anymore?

I believe the majority that live in Florida were not born here.

My brother moved to Maryland, my step brother to California, my step sister still lives in Michigan, as do all my cousins.

 

[Bruce]

I'll take my chance
Point is...RIGHT NOW, not 2029, not 2038, not next year if you live in the teams local market (where the stadium is located) you dont need any other option than OTA because right now law forces them to carry it on a local station.

Again I agree, but by 2029, almost all TV Programing will be via streaming, so I expect some laws to change before then.

Considering all the Networks/Locals are trying to figure out how to monetize ATSC 3.0, advertising revenue is no longer enough to support free OTA , I would not count on it in the near future.

 

[savarese04]

People gripe and complain about games being streamed across multiple providers, but when it comes down to it they still pay up.

This is probably the most accurate statement in this entire thread. Americans LOVE to complain, but when it comes down to it, they will pony up. It's just a lousy game of chicken where you already know the subscriber will blink first,

what is curious is WHY a service would want the NFL. For Peacock, it got them a massive wave of customers at a reduced cost per acquisition. Yeah, they paid a lot for that game, but in the end, it was a lot cheaper than the year(s) of grinding for the same number of subs. For Netflix, they already are the biggest game in town. The reason they are not reporting subs anymore is not due to some altruistic focus on content/profit thing, it's purely because they know there is a finite number of people that can/will be able to subscribe to Netflix. They definitely believe they are reaching that point.

My thinking is that getting the NFL is not going to appreciably get them more subs. However, it may keep them from churning subs as they start to cut back on their content engine. I have been thinking of getting rid of Netflix myself as it is my least watched subscription service and most expensive bill. I can only imagine there are more like me out there.

 

[Bruce]

what is curious is WHY a service would want the NFL. For Peacock, it got them a massive wave of customers at a reduced cost per acquisition. Yeah, they paid a lot for that game, but in the end, it was a lot cheaper than the year(s) of grinding for the same number of subs. For Netflix, they already are the biggest game in town.

There are still plenty of subscribers for Netflix to go after, they have about 75 Million households in the United States ( out of 131 Million).

The same answer for worldwide.

The reason they are not reporting subs

not until 2025, most believe that will not happen, a lot of pushback from investors/share holders.

anymore is not due to some altruistic focus on content/profit thing, it's purely because they know there is a finite number of people that can/will be able to subscribe to Netflix.

Finite yes, but still growing.

My thinking is that getting the NFL is not going to appreciably get them more subs.

I do, still a lot of potential subscribers out there, the sports market is untouched by Netflix, quite telling for now and the future they are going after the rights for the most popular sport in the US, that also comes with the potential of growth from the Global Market.

However, it may keep them from churning subs as they start to cut back on their content engine. I have been thinking of getting rid of Netflix myself as it is my least watched subscription service and most expensive bill. I can only imagine there are more like me out there.

I have heard that so much, here and other forums, yet they keep going up in subscribers.

The last time was when they stopped password sharing , so many posts here, AVS, reddit, etc.

All claimed they were going to end service, quarterly report came out, big increase, the rest of the following quarters were the same, big increases.

But, there is always something on Netflix I wish to watch, about 2 years behind on new content with the service.

 

[Joe The Dragon]

There is no way the Broadcast Networks will be able to afford a new rights agreement in 2029.

First, they probably will be double what they are today, by 2029, an extreme loss in per sub fees because of cord cutting and Pay Live TV services shutting down, the revenue will not be there.

Will the cable co have an $20 broadcast basic package with $0-$40 local fee the very market to market?

Will some cable cos try to find an way to force internet only subs to get broadcast basic?

Now will local teams try to get control over there own games in there local markets? Like how it works with the MLB, NBA, NHL?

 

[Yespage]

There is no way the Broadcast Networks will be able to afford a new rights agreement in 2029.

First, they probably will be double what they are today, by 2029, an extreme loss in per sub fees because of cord cutting and Pay Live TV services shutting down, the revenue will not be there.

I venture to guess that 2029 is too far away to guess any of this. At that point, we might have just two competing streaming options Global Megacorp (Google's service) and Mega Global Corp (Disney's service) after all the merging is completed.

We can safely assume the cable distribution is unlike it is today and Sat distribution is limited to just the few areas capable of receiving Sat signals from the sky after the Musk induced Kessler Incident. But entertainment production and streaming is highly volatile at the moment. So how the NFL deals are managed in 2029 is sci-fi at the moment. Streaming will be a common distribution model, but the impact on OTA is unknown.

 

[Bruce]

Will the cable co have an $20 broadcast basic package with $0-$40 local fee the very market to market?

Do you mean the locals only deal that Comcast offers, where they then add the broadcast channels fee to it, plus the other fees and taxes, makes it then more then YTTV?

Will some cable cos try to find a way to force internet only subs to get broadcast basic?

Why?

Now will local teams try to get control over there own games in there local markets? Like how it works with the MLB, NBA, NHL?

All I have wrote, it is ignorance to believe rules/laws cannot be changed.