Apple losses are Google gains

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Don Landis said:
Actually, diogen is pretty close- The first real popular Apple computer hit the market in '77 ( Apple II) however, the IBM "PC" was indeed later on with the so called compatibles about 84-85. Apple was up against other computer systems like Kapro, Northstar on the commercial side with the big name Commodore and Radio Shack ( recall the Model 1?) at the consumer level. I bouight the Model 1, ugraded to a Model 3, later to a Tandy 1000 before building my own compatible from scratch. Never owned an Apple.
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Apple had the lions share of a very small personal computer market in the late '70s. The market really didn't develop into a monster until the release of the IBM PC in '81. I don't think any of us are in disagreement...just that Apple and IBM did not complete directly prior to that time. Anyway, I would gladly get a new Android phone (personal) when Sprint lets me active it and keep my SERO plan. Unfortunately, I am doomed to keep my Windows Mobile phone until then. :(

Riff...
 
I meant 76 and 81 as the first Apple and IBM were introduced, respectively.

The real competition started (and ended shortly afterwards) later.
Therefore, today's competition between Android and iOS would probably be better compared to the 80's, like riffjim4069 said.
It just happens in a much more compressed, "internet timeframe"...

Diogen.
 
It is interesting that Jobs is trying to play a similar game some 30+ years later...

I have no doubts Apple will make a sh!tload of money with its smartphone business
but I'm not sure they will have more market share than Mac in PC business after the dust settles...

Favorite quote from Forrest Gump:
...Dan got me invested in some kind of fruit company.
So then I got a call from him, saying we don't have to worry about money no more.
Click to expand...

Diogen.
 
I have no doubts Apple will make a sh!tload of money with its smartphone business
but I'm not sure they will have more market share than Mac in PC business after the dust settles...
Click to expand...


Yeah, you get it. With interest in both Google and Apple; Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint ( although I'm currently sold off on Sprint), I'm more interested in the size of the pie than who has the bigger share. As you said earlier the BRIC is where it will be and I think the IC is the biggest concern. I was very happy to hear that Google is beginning to patch it's troubles with China. As Apple ramps up production, it's costs in China will drop and then look out...

Meanwhile- Microsoft is headed for the spinoff shack, I'm afraid. Like AOL, it's days are numbered. I love my TP2 as it does what I need and desire. I hope I don't have to give up too much if I have to switch to Android some day.
 
Another thing to remember is that the pie is growing fast. It is not like Apple is selling fewer units. Instead its volume is increasing, it is just that Google's is growing faster. It is a huge conversion from regular cell phones to internet cell phones.
 
After the first IBM PC was introduced in 1981 (they weren't a player in micros before that) it spelled the doom of Heath/Zenith and everybody else, except for Apple and clones. I don't see such a consolidation in mobiles. We are more function and interface oriented today. Most don't even know what OS is in their cell.
 
Just some updates on the numbers game:

-since June 160,000 Android phones are activated daily, 4.8M per month
-compare that with 100K in May, 60K in February and 30K last year

Impressive rate increase - 60% in a month! - no matter how you look at it.

An instant poll at Fortune’s tech conference last week asked: “Who would have the dominant smart phone in five years?”
The verdict was clear: 57 percent picked Android; 37 percent picked iPhone.
Click to expand...

Letter From Silicon Valley: Doing the Math on Android vs. Apple | Epicenter*| Wired.com
Whoa! Google Android Activations Leap 60% In A Month

Diogen.
 
diogen, I read your complete article. You should have gotten beyond the first two paragraphs. :)

The article claims that the comparison between "phones" is not valid. Something I argued about months ago in this debate. The article agrees that the real race is with the iOS vs. Android OS. not the iphone vs all phones that can run android. So they claim that the numbers still stack up as iOS 6.85 Mil per month vs, Android at 4.8 Million per month.

Yes, Android is selling at a rapidly increasing rate and might catch up if Apple does nothing to expand it's sales. However, they are not sitting still. They continue to offer the iphone in more and more countries. Look to the future when in the US, the iphone will no longer be limited to one carrier. Will this be enough? I doubt it.

Google doesn't make phones, it makes the OS. Apple makes it's phone and its OS. Google has several phone makers building android phones while Apple only has one phone, and two non phone devices ipad and ipod. There are new Android phones being released every month. Apple releases one new development a year. With that said Android should and will likely be the dominate OS for phones in the world. But, will any single hardware device running Android beat out the current sales for iphone? I doubt it. iphones become obsolete in 12 months. Android phones seem to become obsolete in 3 weeks!

So, my prediction is that the iphone will remain the single best selling hardware device phone for the foreseeable future, but Android OS will become the dominate OS for many phones.

What should Apple do to compete?- should be obvious- Apple needs to license it's OS to run on non Apple made hardware! I predict this will be Apple's major policy move once Steve Jobs leaves.
 
Don Landis said:
diogen, I read your complete article. You should have gotten beyond the first two paragraphs. :)
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Who said I didn't?

This is why I said "Impressive rate increase - 60% in a month! - no matter how you look at it."

Also, I don't thing Android vs. iOS is any better comparison than Android vs. iPhone.
But you probably knew that...

Diogen.
 
Don Landis said:
What do you have against...
Click to expand...
Having against? Nothing.
You can do any comparison you want.
If Apple adds iOS to AppleTV, Macs or your toaster you can count it, too.
And when Android surpasses all those installs by year end, you can start claiming that market share is meaningless... just like Mac-heads do for decades.

I'm interested in the market called smartphones.
And am very pleased to see the accelerated success of Android in this market.
For many reasons
- it is Linux at heart. Although being almost 20 years old, Linux isn't a household name;
- it has a very active moder community, i.e. people that care about freedom more than magic and sh!t;
- it showed that people in general are not a herd of sheep led by a bunch of "pointificators";
etc.

But hey, if you want to invent metrics to make "scientific" claims about iPhone, iOS ar any other Apple product superiority - go right ahead...

Diogen.
 
Not too sure about ios on non-Apple hardware. Remember how long Apple computer clones lasted?
 
But hey, if you want to invent metrics to make "scientific" claims about iPhone, iOS ar any other Apple product superiority - go right ahead...
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I don't understand why you keep bringing that up. I was only questioning the validity of comparing an OS with a piece of hardware. I'm not inventing anything. Besides I never did support the idea that iphone in and of itself was superior. I don't even own one. They are not designed for a user like me. My only interest in Apple is stock profitability. It rocks! And BTW- I have 150% more money invested in Google than Apple but unfortunately with all the hype around Android, it has not helped me with my Google investments at all. My interest in both companies is not just spectator interests. I don't wish to see one advance at the expense of the other. I'm most interested in seeing the size of the industry expand. Nothing would make me more happy than to see Google Stock hit $700 by December regardless of what does it. Of course, if RIM goes down the tubes in the process, that wouldn't bother me one bit. :)

The way I see it there are two major issues that are holding back the iphone from more rapid growth. It is not the device. It is AT&T service - exclusivity and Apple's lack of mfg ability to supply in greater numbers. Both of these gives Google a clear advantage since 1. they do not manufacturer the phones. They license the OS. 2. They maintain an open architecture from the beginning and that allows everyone freedom to customize the OS as they wish. 3. Nobody is forced to do business with one carrier or select one make phone.

Navychop- As I recall the Apple clones didn't offer much bang for the buck. Would you pay about the same price for a Rolex fake as for the real thing? However- what I was referring to is Apple simply selling the OS as software like MS sells Windows. Then you buy a Dell laptop and you select the OS to include Mac OSx. Since we already know the new intel chips will support OSx if you install it illegally, the move to licensing it's OS could add considerably more sales.
 
I'm not interested in gauging investment opportunities on discussion forums. Don't think it works or ever did.

Apple's top-to-bottom control, from chip design to software to user interface, is what makes the "magic" work, I believe.
As long as it makes money, they will never let others play in this "garden".
This applies to every Apple product.

Apple re-invented the smartphone market.
Partnering with one carrier and getting a cut from EVERY subscriber is their invention.
They even managed to export this model to some European countries that have never used this before.
And it paid off in spades.

Google re-invented the same market again.
It didn't obliterate competitors (like Apple does on the high end) but offered a way for the obliterated to return into the game.
And the numbers show this business model is gaining market share.

All this has only indirect relationship with market cap, stock price, etc.

Diogen.
 
While every player sold more smartphones, only Android grew its market share beating Apple over the last 6 months

mobile-OS-share-recent-2010.png


Total market share shows the same dynamic but slower pace

mobile-OS-share-q2-2010.png


Just as a reference point: during iPhone 4 introduction, iPhone had a 28% market share and Android 9%.

Diogen.
 
Last edited:
diogen said:
While every player sold more smartphones, only Android grew its market share beating Apple over the last 6 months

mobile-OS-share-recent-2010.png


Total market share shows the same dynamic but slower pace

mobile-OS-share-q2-2010.png


Just as a reference point: during iPhone 4 introduction, iPhone had a 28% market share and Android 9%.

Diogen.
Click to expand...

You couldn't gotten this from Engadget since they haven't posted an article about any android gain. They are too busy picking on RIM.
 

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