Apple losses are Google gains

[68bronco]

I will stack my droid running bugless beast against the iphone any time anywhere. I am overclocked comfortably and have all the bells and whistles. I can do this with my droid and also choose what content I want or not. I had an iphone but will take my droid in its current state over the iphone any day.

 

[truckracer]

everybody and their brother in law has a blackberry (RIM) now days. I just don't care for any of the blackberry models. I have a tour 9630. Blackberry sucks for web browsing. the screens are just too small except for the storm.

 

[diogen]

An interesting report about the cell phone market from the ad serving internet traffic market angle.
http://metrics.admob.com/2010/03/february-2010-mobile-metrics-report/

Stats I found most interesting (Feb. 2010):
- the US has half of this market;
- Worldwide: iPhone has 50% market share, Android - 24%
- in the US: iPhone has 44% market share, Android - 42% (from 55/27 just 3 months ago).

Over the last year:
- the market tripled;
- iPhone market share went from 33% to 50%;
- Android market share went from 2% to 24%;
- Symbian market share fell from 43% to 18%.

Diogen.

 

[meStevo]

Some more graphs from the same report i think? Looks like the android OS will pass the iphone in the US from an online traffic perspective.

http://gizmodo.com/5504622/how-the-iphone-could-end-up-in-second-place

 

[diogen]

Updated

It wouldn't surprise me if this time next year Android will displace BlackBerry in second place...

Diogen.

 

[diogen]

Comparing these two charts shows the Nexus One effect: about 2% (from 5.2 in December to 7.1 in January).

RIM got its share back. Apple stayed flat. Google gobbled up MS' share and then some...

Update from the same source
Android sees healthy growth at expense of Apple, RIM, MS

According to comScore, all the major smartphone OS makers experienced a dip in market share among smartphone subscribers during the three-month period except for Android. Microsoft saw the largest drop of 1.9 percent, while Apple was down 1 percent and Palm saw a 0.6 drop. RIM saw the smallest fluctuation, with only a 0.4 percent dip.

Still, RIM kept its top spot with 41.7 percent of the overall market as of May 2010, followed by Apple at 24.4 percent and Microsoft at 13.2 percent. Google/Android stood at a solid 13 percent in May thanks to its four percentage point increase...

Diogen.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

I will stack my droid running bugless beast against the iphone any time anywhere. I am overclocked comfortably and have all the bells and whistles. I can do this with my droid and also choose what content I want or not. I had an iphone but will take my droid in its current state over the iphone any day.

Your statement was true in March, and it is even more true now with BB.4 running Android 2.2. I am onlyu overclocked to 800mhz, and the Droid flies. Smooth as can be.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Update from the same source
Android sees healthy growth at expense of Apple, RIM, MS


Diogen.

Another six months of no iphone on Verizon, and the introduction of the Droid 2, Droid X, and whatever is in store in November, and I suspect Google's numbers will increase by even more.

 

[diogen]

I believe Android's world market share should be even more impressive.
Considering the BRIC countries (Brasil+Russia+India+China) account for about 40% of world cell sales and are NOT iPhone markets in any shape or form...
List of countries by number of mobile phones in use - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Diogen.

 

[TheForce]

... are NOT iPhone markets in any shape or form...

Maybe I drink the cool aide but I certainly don't drink bad liquor to excess quantity-

Apple's Chinese iPhone sales explode - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Tech

 

[diogen]

This must be easier to grasp than importance of BOM: market share means relative numbers as opposed to absolute (sales).

Start here
Apple iPhone4 Success Masks Global Strategic Challenges - The Conversation - Harvard Business Review

After India, the iPhone flopped in China, where it arrived with a price tag of a stunning $1,000 without a contract. By the end of 2009, some 100,000 iPhones had been sold in China in a marketplace of 724 million mobile users.

Diogen.

 

[TheForce]

The problem with Nokia is it's business. It has for the past 5 years, had a negative revenue growth of -20% while Apple had achieved 92% positive growth. Apple's profit margin is 20% while Nokia is 1%. I can tell you that when a company operates at such a low margin as 1% a small mistake can quickly take the company negative and with such huge sales as it has, many times that of Apple, the risk is huge for massive failure.
Yes, the price point of iphone last year was what kept the sales so limited ( 100K units ) However, the production capability at Apple is still on the increase being only a couple years old. Simply put, Apple doesn't need to overtake Nokia, in units numbers, It just needs to keep increasing its sales at the present rate and have production capability to match that demand. If they keep the company margins in check with that growth, the benefit will overtake Nokia with only 1/20 the sales numbers. Now I'm talking company and not just product. But, please understand I look at what's important to me as an investor, not what fanboys wish to see in unit numbers. Frankly I do fail to understand the excitement fanboys have for any of these products numbers. I only appreciate the excitement fanboys have for product features. For me the product should just work and do what I need but the company should do its job and keep me in income. You and I have differences in what's important, and we both should respect those differences.

 

[diogen]

I'll say it one more time (last time, I promise): all my posts/charts/graphs in this thread are about market share.
And what I'm mostly interested in is the dynamics of market share, quarter to quarter, year to year. Because it reveals trends!

But, please understand I look at what's important to me...

By all means, be my guest. We live in a free society...
But WTF does it have to do with market share?

Diogen.

 

[diogen]

And here is what the dry numbers boil down to
Developers increasingly have Android on the brain

Apple's App Store attracted thousands of developers and boasts hundreds of thousands of apps. While most other platforms have been less successful with central app repositories, Android is the only other platform really vying for the attention of developers. Several recent reports suggest interest in Android among developers is growing significantly...

It starts resembling more and more the Apple vs. IBM personal computer battle of 76-81...

Diogen.

 

[TheForce]

Market share today is a piece of the total crystal ball for the future. Past Market share is interesting only from an academic historical point of view but has little value for the future. To get a better picture of where the trends will go, you have to use Market share as a baseline today and then look at corporate health, world section growth and government interference. Taking all that into consideration we may get a better picture but there is no real slam dunk indicator.
As I said, Nokia is impressively dominate in China but can they last as a company without some changes to their internal business model? They are on the downhill slide economically. Apple, on the other hand is still on the up hill but all this can change if Google resolves it's political differences with Chinese government. ( today they announced renewal of their license to do business in China so we may have a new factor in the complex future share equation.)
All, I'm saying diogen is, like isolated BOM to predict P/L, Market share to predict future trends, is not looking at the whole picture. Wish it were that simple, but it is certainly not.

 

[TheForce]

And here is what the dry numbers boil down to
Developers increasingly have Android on the brain


It starts resembling more and more the Apple vs. IBM personal computer battle of 76-81...

Diogen.

I found this interesting-

In a recent report from VisionMobile, analyst Andreas Constantinou notes that while smartphone platforms like Symbian and BlackBerry have more market share by units sold, both iOS and Android are commanding the most mindshare. "For example," wrote Constantinou, "the Symbian operating system is deployed in around 390 million handsets (Q2 2010), and claims over 6,000 apps, while Apple's iPhone has seen 30x more applications while being deployed at just 60 million units over the same period."

Why do you suppose that is so? Numbers of aps available due to more developers wishing for the better payment schedule? I will tell you from personal experience, most of the aps I've downloaded suck on the Ipad. Especially those that try to manipulate files and do printing.

 

[diogen]

Right.
Nothing can predict the future.
I'm glad we're in agreement here.

Diogen.

 

[riffjim4069]

And here is what the dry numbers boil down to
Developers increasingly have Android on the brain


It starts resembling more and more the Apple vs. IBM personal computer battle of 76-81...

Diogen.

I agree with what you're saying, but I believe your timeline is a little skewed...more like '81-'85.

 

[diogen]

RE: Apps

I believe the right 10 apps will guarantee a sale for 90% of rational buyers. In geek-land make it 50 apps.

Two problems: no one knows what those apps are and not all buyers are rational.

What is the critical mass of apps to guarantee the right 10 are there for everybody, statistically speaking?
I don't know. I don't believe anybody does. But I think 100K apps vs. 200K doesn't make a difference here.

Much more important is to avoid stagnation e.g. Windows Mobile.
And that means have developers interested in your platform today...

Diogen.

 

[TheForce]

I agree with what you're saying, but I believe your timeline is a little skewed...more like '81-'85.

Actually, diogen is pretty close- The first real popular Apple computer hit the market in '77 ( Apple II) however, the IBM "PC" was indeed later on with the so called compatibles about 84-85. Apple was up against other computer systems like Kapro, Northstar on the commercial side with the big name Commodore and Radio Shack ( recall the Model 1?) at the consumer level. I bouight the Model 1, ugraded to a Model 3, later to a Tandy 1000 before building my own compatible from scratch. Never owned an Apple.