Well, Blu-Ray or Sony & Co has ZERO chance to win this war without Microsoft and Windows.
Sony is in pretty bad financial condition, PS3 is still vaporware, though nobody with sane mind took Sony's March-release seriously anyway (Sony is famous about their outright lies when it comes to consoles).
Ice on the cake, as the latest rumour has it, Microsoft set an unusually high of $30 per OS
licensing fee for Blu-Ray....
I'm telling you: unless BDE bend over, grease up and take the mandatory managed copy, there'll be no winner.
PS: one can argue that MS can be bought with implementing their interactive layer (BDE uses a different, Java-based) therefore granting nice royalties but I doubt that'd be a good deal for MS, losing zillions of potential XP MCE customer due to the lack of manageable HD content.