calikarim said:
HD Dvd is out next month and is MPEG 4, Blue Ray majortiy of studios are releasing in MPEG 2. With almost some bits per second, MPEG 4 provides a more better picture. HD DVd is going to win in my opinion . SOny is late with everything, late with Blue ray, late with Playstation 3. Late is not good, plus HD Dvd has suppport of Microsoft , and Intel, which are the operatiing system in the billions of computers in the world, forget playstation 3.
From what I have read, the specs are much tighter on the BR and its going to be difficult to manufacture. It will require a whole new assembly line process to make the BR discs.. In comparison, HD DVD will require a fraction of investment to convert existing lines over. Plus as I understand it, BR is not backward compatible.. That is a huge drawback.. How many people are going to have the space in their rack for two dvd players.. and all the extra inputs on their TV to handle them? I know my HD TV does not have enough inputs to hold two DVD players and my satellite receiver.. And lets face it, everyone has DVD's and they will be around for years to come.. The need for backward compatibility is big.
Because BR has very tight specs on the laser.. they may be more unstable and prone to a higher failure rate.. This is a whole new technology with completely new processes to build. HD DVD is based on older DVD techology with specs that are less prone to failure. BR is more difficult to manufacture.... there is no two ways about it.. just do a search on how BR has to bend the laser and the technical hurdles it must over come. It will be interesting if BR manufactures can over come all these challenges in production. Not only must they over come these challenges.. but they need to do so very quickly.. since HD-DVD is already about to ship.. Furthermore, BR will not only have to ship soon.. but they have to deliver at or below HD-DVD price points.. Don't think that BR will win if their players cost hundreds more.. Forget about early adopters that may say the cost is worth going with BR.. thats BS.. The masses that buy these machines are motivated by PRICE.. just like everything else.. In electronics everything is PRICE DRIVEN.. People are used to buying cheap DVD players.
So far most of the pro BR folks are looking at the specs and capacity of BR and drawing up conclusions.. But the reality is that BR will most likely fail because of real world economics and ongoing issues with retooling and converting existing processes over to BR.. From what I have read.. HD-DVD will be able to ramp up capacity much faster in both discs and hardware.. I think that DVD HD will catch on very early and HD DVD will be able to meet production needs for media and hardware... BR has a uphill battle.. First they will come out after HD-DVD... they continue to be plagued with R and D issues.. Samsung has delayed their BR machine due to java OS issues.. PS3 is still delayed... The tighter specs will no doubt cause manufacturing issues and delays on the production line.. I used to work at motorola and believe me, anytime you introduce new technology.. tighter specs on anything will spell trouble when trying to ramp up production numbers..
I suspect Sony will take a loss on PS3 sales and will subsidize high manufacturing costs just to get BR out. But I don't think Sony will be able to overcome the difficulties for other manufactures like samsung who are still working out problems with their BR machines... and I still doubt that the labels will be able to ramp up BR discs in sufficient numbers to meet demands.... I just don't think Sony and their backers are going to be able to get their sh*t together fast enough to put their BR on the market.
I think that BR would succeed if it were up to the early adopters.. It appears to me that many people who are keeping up with HD techology may be leaning towards BR.. But those few early adopters are not going to save BR.. Only the average Joe in the masses will determine BR fate.. and I think BR will go out with the beta max.
Which brings me to my last point.. if BR was backed buy another company besides Sony,, I may be more excited.. But with all their restrictive past with Altrac, rootkits on audio cds.. memory sticks.. I just don't like them. I just feel that the possibilities for BR to become more restrictive with DRM is more likely over HD-DVD.
That may not be true, but Sony has not been much of a consumer advocate in the past in DRM issues.. In fact, Sony's past actions is rather dark and bleak in those areas.
