Obviously for HD purists, VOOM is (and has been for its brief life) the HD leader.
There is no comparison.
Yet there are a number of cautions: for just one example Betamax always delivered a better picture than VHS. The evidence is there that most people (even those with HD sets often use standard progression DVD machines and love the quality) don't care about perfect HD quality. They are used to years of muddy VHS quality, so even ED is a major step forward.
So VOOM is selling PQ, which seems not to be a major selling point, while its lack of local HD is crippling and perhaps even fatal (as Cablevision candidly admitted in its SEC filing yesterday.)
Meanwhile, cable had a huge head start getting close to 75% penetration nationally, but its arrogance, miserable service and pricing policies have caused it, even without local HD, to steadily lose ground to D* and E* -- especially when SD LIL cities were added. Now MSOs can claim only about 67% penetration. The vast majority of DBS additions in the past two years have come directly at the expense of cable.
In addition, cable has had decades of built-up bad will and price gouging to overcome. It seems clear that when offered a choice (which includes locals) many consumers will choose DBS. D* and E* have for years won the J.D. Powers customer satisfaction award as cable fell farther and farther behind.
At at the moment the HD penetration rate is still very small, so there just aren't all that many HD consumers to fight over - yet. Maybe the penetration rate is four per cent, perhaps even as high as six per cent. Let's be conservative and call the HD penetration rate five per cent: about 5.45 million homes.
Of those, there are more than a million DBS subscribers, and despite far superior picture quality and quantity, just about 29,000 VOOM subs. (There are close to that many DirecTV HD TiVo owners, and the machines have only been available since the end of April.)
Surely the VOOM business, marketing, advertising and installation plans were wrong.
Obviously they were on target for HD fans who want lots of movies and don't care about network TV or SD channels. Or who are among the 15% or fewer who actually use an antenna.
But the sad fact appears to be that the vast majority of people just don't care all that much about superior picture quality (remember the Betamax example?)
Obviously from this week's announcement, and NewsCorp's statements since taking over D*, DirecTV management see the opportunity to grab a large share of the 67 million homes now connected to cable.
Will adding premium Starz or Cinemax help in any great manner? Or will, by mid next year, offering HD LIL to 60+% of the nation's cable subs -- 38-40 million homes -- be a better business plan.
I would rather see every HD channel NOW on DirecTV.
But if I have to wait a few more months, I'll do it.
I just can't see any way that VOOM, as it is now being run, can be any kind of factor long-term. In fact I think its mis-guided and amateurishly run business may even have set back the HD cause.
Because if VOOM were a viable competitor, NewsCorp and Echo Star would have had to step up to the HD plate even faster. But as it is, why should they bother to worry in the slightest about VOOM?