This past fall I bought a Philips DVD player with upconversion capabilities at Wallmart for about $46.00. I was very happy upconverting my standard definition DVDs for viewing on my high definition television. A discernably better picture at a very moderate price.
Then I bought the Toshiba HD-DVD X-a2 player so I could both upconvert and view HD-DVDs. My analysis of the sequence of events that would follow that event proved incorrect: I thought HD-dvd players would very shortly become commodity priced, with many, many players available at under $150, and that Toshiba would have the good sense to realize that HD-DVD mastered movies should be marketed at the same price as their regular DVDs. But I was wrong. Instead of licensing their HD-DVD technology to other companies to add to manufacturing and distribution weight, Toshiba sat on its hands to maintain the Toshiba manufacturing monopoly, and kept the pricing premium on HD-dvd discs even though consumers knew (if they followed this format battle) that it costs no more to produce an HD-DVD disc that a standard DVD disc. This was an attempted rip-off of the early consumers on Toshiba's part, and a bad mistake.
Regarding Sony's willingness to have the Blu-Ray machines come down in price, I don't think so. Sony is without question the electronics company most aware of the value of branding, and in my view about 50% of the Sony price premium is due to maintaining the value of branding. (About half of the premium is due to the fact Sony has good technology, produces good products, and has wonderful marketing strategies.) I think the Blu-Ray pricing levels will be maintained at current levels as long as possible; this may even be until the next big thing comes along. I've read that Toshiba is developing technology that will make Blu-Ray (and HD-DVD) completely outdated.
I hope Universal, Paramount and Warner in the declining days of HD-DVD put all of their HD-DVD titles on sale for a reasonable price, something in the $9.99 range. I'd be willing to pay $10 for an HD-DVD copy of some of my favorite movies.
On the Blu-Ray front, I'll be willing to buy a Blu-ray player when they reach commodity prices, in the the $49.00 range. Until then, they could stick their head in the sand and wiggle their butt and I still wouldn't pay them any attention.
Regards,
Fitzie