I think Shadow of Mordor for $25 is entirely possible if not likely, but I doubt we'll see Dragon Age or FC4 for less than $40 over the next week. Shadow of Mordor and Dragon Age are high on my list too, and I'm oddly drawn to Evil Within, though I don't typically go for gory survival horror that isn't set in Rapture.
One reason I heard that Sony and MS can't sell digital titles for much less on a regular basis, in spite of the significantly lower cost of distribution for digital (especially for newer titles), is that they can't undercut their big box retail partners without risking losing their support and customer base.
Well I can already keep the "Used" copy of Dragon Age I just got from Gamefly for $40 so I have a little hope still. I put the quotations around used because I am the first person to rent this copy of the game from them and if I choose to keep it they will send me the original case with all included contents.
I'm positive I will be able to get Shadow of Mordor for $25. I know for sure at least Target and Best Buy have leaked that price for Black Friday. I'm confident I will be able to get it from Amazon or another website too. I just wish I could buy a digital copy for that price.
I understand that they can't offer that price permanently on a digital copy. However, when all the major retailers including Microsoft's physical stores are advertising it at that price they aren't really undercutting anyone. I'm not sure why they couldn't price match Black Friday deals on their digital games for one day.