TVAnswerman Has AT&T Predictions For 2020

[SamCdbs]

What do you mean by nope?

Just went to Comcast Business site and they show 5 different tier-25, 75, 150, 300 and 1g.

Umm, “nope” is a slang term for no.

And NOPE, the system, THE BEST AVAILABLE, was not ready to handle the job.

Unlike DirecTV. Because live TV via internet is just not ready for prime time. Which is why DirecTV will not “stop taking customers”, nor drop NFLST, for many years to come.

 

[NashGuy]

Why would they refuse to sell you Directv if you are at an address with AT&T TV? You can't get NFLST with AT&T TV can you? You can't get 4K...

They will never be exactly equivalent (where's the support for the LCC with AT&T TV, does the cloud DVR support everything the real DVR can do, etc.) so they can't consider them equivalent.

All they have to do is say "since you are at an address with AT&T fiber we recommend AT&T TV" and if you insist you want Directv say "OK but since you are at an address with AT&T fiber you will have to pay for the install if you want Directv". Maybe those people will be the first to have to pay for install, though I expect that will become the norm for Directv within a couple years. Then they don't have to care what people choose, because they won't be on the hook for the up front cost.

They might refuse to sell DirecTV at addresses eligible for AT&T TV because they plan to hold onto the AT&T TV service indefinitely but they may choose to somehow spin-off or sell DirecTV in the next few years. In which case, they'd want to shift as large a percentage of their cable subscribers as possible over to AT&T TV.

As far as the examples you give of AT&T TV not being equivalent with DirecTV, there's no reason to think any of those are permanent. We know that the AT&T TV box supports 4K HDR and the CEO has said those formats will be supported eventually on the service, so I expect that's just a matter of time. Might even be announced when AT&T TV launches nationwide in Feb.

As for NFLST, who knows if that will even be available on DTV come this fall and, if it is, if it will be again in 2021. (And if the deal does get renewed with AT&T for 2021, I'd definitely bet it'll be available on AT&T TV at that point. We know, after all, that the NFL is eager to get the package on some kind of streaming platform.)

As for an LCC, for all we know AT&T has a network-based tuner in the works, something similar to Sling's AirTV 2, that could work with AT&T TV. And the vast majority of potential subscribers to either DTV or AT&T TV don't know what an LCC is or even think about trying to integrate OTA TV in with cable, so it's not a big deal either way.

AT&T TV's cloud DVR is a trade-off versus the Genie; it has more storage, can record an unlimited number of simultaneous channels, and is accessible anywhere over any internet connection, but the cloud recordings auto-delete after 90 days. (Given that Comcast's cloud DVR has a 12-month limit and YouTube TV has a 9-month limit, I really think AT&T TV is hurting itself there.)

It's possible that DTV will move to a policy where some or all new customers have to pay for installation costs themselves up-front but I really doubt it given that DISH will still be touting free installs with a 2-year contract. I think those installation costs will continue to be spread out and baked into the average monthly price of service paid over the 2-year contract period, which is why the monthly cost will be higher for DTV than AT&T TV. And then after the 2-year contract is up, DTV customers who call in and complain about the price and ask for a discount will be told to switch to the cheaper AT&T TV if they live at an eligible address.

 

[Bruce]

nor drop NFLST, for many years to come.

You might need to convince AT&T of that-


DirecTV could walk away from a renewal of one its prized assets: It’s exclusive rights to the NFL Sunday Ticket package, which gives subscribers access to every Sunday afternoon game.

“There’s less profitability to support the decision [to renew],” AT&T COO John Stankey, who is also CEO of WarnerMedia, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. “It becomes less critical to the business over time.”

DirecTV Could Walk Away From NFL Sunday Ticket Renewal, AT&T COO Says

Current deal with the NFL runs through 2022

www.thewrap.com

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[bobvick]

1 gig internet to the home is more popular than you realize....businesses can get 10gig

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Don’t have to be a business, everywhere, I can get 10 gig if I want it. But it’s about $1400 per month.

1 gig is $80

 

[Joe The Dragon]

You might need to convince AT&T of that-


DirecTV could walk away from a renewal of one its prized assets: It’s exclusive rights to the NFL Sunday Ticket package, which gives subscribers access to every Sunday afternoon game.

“There’s less profitability to support the decision [to renew],” AT&T COO John Stankey, who is also CEO of WarnerMedia, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. “It becomes less critical to the business over time.”

DirecTV Could Walk Away From NFL Sunday Ticket Renewal, AT&T COO Says

Current deal with the NFL runs through 2022

www.thewrap.com

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commercial use. I don't see steaming only working that well with that.

 

[Bruce]

Don’t have to be a business, everywhere, I can get 10 gig if I want it. But it’s about $1400 per month.

1 gig is $80

For consumers yes, that is what I pay +$15 for XFi Advantage (which includes the modem) which I have to pay since we are always over 1TB a month.

For Business, 1G from Comcast Business is $249 a month.


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[Jimbo]

Don’t have to be a business, everywhere, I can get 10 gig if I want it. But it’s about $1400 per month.

1 gig is $80

Location, Location, Location ....

 

[TheRatPatrol]

As for NFLST, who knows if that will even be available on DTV come this fall and, if it is, if it will be again in 2021.

The last NFLST deal was signed in 2014 for 8 years, so it expires after the 2022 season, so it will be on D* for another two seasons.

 

[Bruce]

The last NFLST deal was signed in 2014 for 8 years, so it expires after the 2022 season, so it will be on D* for another two seasons.

The NFL and AT&T both have a option to terminate the deal early, it will be on D* next season, but after that who knows.

AT&T and the National Football League are widely known to be at an impasse to extend their eight-year, $12 billion deal for Sunday Ticket, which was signed in 2014. Each had the option of opting out of that deal before it expired. But the sports news site said both parties missed the deadline to press the eject button.

AT&T and NFL to Stick With DirecTV ‘Sunday Ticket’ Deal Through 2020-21: Report

AT&T and the NFL have missed deadlines to opt out of their current deal for DirecTV NFL Sunday Ticket and will keep the live games package exclusively on the satellite TV carrier through the 2020-21 p

www.multichannel.com

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[navychop]

So maybe one more year, or two, but probably no more after that.


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[Jimbo]

So maybe one more year, or two, but probably no more after that.


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Nah, it will be on D* after the 2022 Season, it will just also be available other routes, such as Streaming ... I think Amazon ends up with it, its just a guess, but seeing they are already doing it, they have a heads up advantage.

That said, I Do believe it will stay on D*.

 

[Claude Greiner]

So maybe one more year, or two, but probably no more after that.


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The subscriber loss would be insane if they dropped Sunday ticket.

The problem is that it’s like a drug.

In the early years Sunday ticket was cheap, but as Directv relied on it more and more for subscribers every year the price kept going up.

The problem is that they are in a bind to keep paying for it to maintain the subscriber base that only subscribes to Directv because of it.

Bars have turned Sunday ticket into a business. Sure they may pay $5000 for the package, but they make 4 times in revenue with the extra traffic it generates on Sunday.

The minute Directv drops Sunday ticket, most of these bars are gone to whoever gets the rights.

Directv will never get rid of it, but if discounted enough they may roll the dice and give up exclusive rights.

But if let’s say Directv Does get rid of exclusive rights, it won’t be without establishing a set price. They are not going to allow the cable company to carry it, only to give it away for free to pouch subscribers from Directv, forcing them in a situation to match the offer to keep the customer.

 

[Claude Greiner]

Nah, it will be on D* after the 2022 Season, it will just also be available other routes, such as Streaming ... I think Amazon ends up with it, its just a guess, but seeing they are already doing it, they have a heads up advantage.

That said, I Do believe it will stay on D*.

I don’t think Amazon would be that dumb to invest billions of dollars into it.

Directv only wants it because they get a satellite customer because of it.

What is Amazon going to do? Make you subscribe to prime?

Amazon doesn’t need to do anything special to get customers to shop their website or subscribe to prime. Even though I HATE, amazon with a passion, they do have a good selection of merchandise, competitive pricing and fast shipping.

The whole package is just over priced. I would speculate a good number of Directv customers who have it, don’t know they have it because it’s broken down Into 5 payments and is on auto renewal.

All the time I look at customers who have it on their bills, that we call and have it removed

 

[TheTechGuru]

What a bunch of Bullsh!t. Directv is not going to stop installing Dishes.

Worse case scenario they will tighten up their credit requirements and focus on going after high value customers in an effort to lower the churn they get from customers who may not pay the bill within the first 3-4 months.

I could even see going to a $99 install

But the fact of the matter is they need technicians to service their existing customer base, so taking no new orders won’t make much business sense as they would be paying techs hourly to sit on their ass and do nothing.

I could see them loosing the exclusive to Sunday ticket, however amazon is likely the only one who could afford it. We all know DISH will never have Sunday Ticket.

Thing is, the people that live outside the reach of cable and fiber thus need satellite as the only TV option other than OTA tend to have lower credit than those snobs that live in fiberhoods...

 

[Juan]

If there is money to be made..a way will be found

Thing is, the people that live outside the reach of cable and fiber thus need satellite as the only TV option other than OTA tend to have lower credit than those snobs that live in fiberhoods...

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[SamCdbs]

I don’t think Amazon would be that dumb to invest billions of dollars into it.

What is Amazon going to do? Make you subscribe to prime?

Amazon doesn’t need to do anything special to get customers to shop their website or subscribe to prime.

EXACTLY. Many people do not understand the basic economics of NFLST. DirecTV loses money at it, because it drives subscriptions to their regular service. The NFL makes M O R E $$ from it than it would from whatever %age of the sale price it would get in a traditional model. The NFL likes that.

So the future, next year and decades from now is:

- The current model, with one exclusive provider paying over-value and using access to the package as the bait to sell something else.

- A traditional model, with it available from multiple outlets at a set price, with the NFL and the multiple outlets splitting the money.

Because, in addition to just not being able to handle the bandwidth load, internet companies have nothing else to manditatorially sell, and because the NFL likes making more, rather than less, money, NFLST will stay right where it is, exclusive to DirecTV for many years to come.

 

[Juan]

And if they dont want new subs..why carry season ticket

EXACTLY. Many people do not understand the basic economics of NFLST. DirecTV loses money at it, because it drives subscriptions to their regular service. The NFL makes M O R E $$ from it than it would from whatever %age of the sale price it would get in a traditional model. The NFL likes that.

So the future, next year and decades from now is:

- The current model, with one exclusive provider paying over-value and using access to the package as the bait to sell something else.

- A traditional model, with it available from multiple outlets at a set price, with the NFL and the multiple outlets splitting the money.

Because, in addition to just not being able to handle the bandwidth load, internet companies have nothing else to manditatorially sell, and because the NFL likes making more, rather than less, money, NFLST will stay right where it is, exclusive to DirecTV for many years to come.

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[NashGuy]

I can imagine AT&T renewing their deal so that DTV is the exclusive satellite provider of NFLST, or so that DTV and AT&T TV are the exclusive providers of NFLST to commercial establishments.

But I do think we'll see NFLST offered to at least residential customers via some OTT streaming provider (e.g. Amazon) where it's sold a la carte. Perhaps instead of Amazon, that turns out to be AT&T and they restrict sales of it to current subscribers of AT&T TV and/or HBO Max. But as NFLST enters the streaming era, and the big cable bundle continues to decline, it's hard to see AT&T or any other provider shelling out huge bucks so that they can bundle NFLST in for free with some other product they're selling (as they've historically done with new DTV subscriptions). Because that model only makes sense for very expensive products with a long-term contract. And that's the model that TV is moving away from in the streaming era.

 

[slice1900]

I think Directv will remain the exclusive commercial provider for NFLST, they will be willing to pay for keeping their virtual monopoly for restaurants/sports bars. For residential things are likely to change.

I think the NFL wants to sell more subscriptions by going streaming and may take that in-house so they can strictly control things - i.e. one account can only stream from a single location to avoid account sharing. They would lose too much revenue if they allowed multiple streams from different locations because everyone would be sharing with their friends to keep the cost down so they'll limit it to one IP per account at once though with multiple streams possible.

Directv may retain an exclusive for non-streaming residential, since the people who can't stream are mostly satellite customers so the NFL could sell them that without affecting sales of their new streaming product. Even if they weren't exclusive for residential I don't see them dropping it entirely - they'd make a deal where they pay per subscriber and the freebies would end.

 

[NashGuy]

I think Directv will remain the exclusive commercial provider for NFLST, they will be willing to pay for keeping their virtual monopoly for restaurants/sports bars. For residential things are likely to change.

I think the NFL wants to sell more subscriptions by going streaming and may take that in-house so they can strictly control things - i.e. one account can only stream from a single location to avoid account sharing. They would lose too much revenue if they allowed multiple streams from different locations because everyone would be sharing with their friends to keep the cost down so they'll limit it to one IP per account at once though with multiple streams possible.

Directv may retain an exclusive for non-streaming residential, since the people who can't stream are mostly satellite customers so the NFL could sell them that without affecting sales of their new streaming product. Even if they weren't exclusive for residential I don't see them dropping it entirely - they'd make a deal where they pay per subscriber and the freebies would end.

Yeah, this is pretty much in line with my thinking and earlier post.

I don't really see AT&T signing up for another NFLST contract on the residential side like they have now, where they pay a big price which they don't recoup from individual sales. That only makes sense if they want to still use NFLST as a freebie to encourage new cable TV subs. But now that AT&T admits that cable TV is in decline and they're managing a transition from it over to their own HBO Max (which Stephenson has analogized as their earlier transition from landline to mobile telephony), are they going to double down on attempts to sell cable TV with 2-year contracts and free NFLST that costs them a ton? Just seems like a bad bet right now.

I could see them trying to cut a deal where AT&T (both via satellite and streaming) is the exclusive residential distributor for NFLST, with AT&T's cut of each subscription sold rising the more subscriptions they sell, and with them guaranteeing the NFL some minimum number sold. But I don't really see how the currently structured contract (if I understand it correctly) makes sense for AT&T going forward.