Traditional Providers Losses, 3rd Quarter 2023 Edition

[Bruce]

I’m guessing I need not ponder too much about dropping Dish. They may go under first.

They might be profitable again next quarter because of the price increase, depending on the subscriber churn of course, 4th quarter is normal bad as far as losses go, but 1st quarter is always the worse.

Then springtime hits and they have $3 Billion in debt due.

I expect Chapter 11, which means they will try and stay in business, just like Diamond/Bally Sports.

Bad analogy.

 

[MikeD-C05]

Based on news stories, $21 Billion in debt, down to about $1.5 Billion in cash and now unprofitable, Chapter 11 might be an option to handle that debt, but then risks the Government taking back the spectrum.

Dish needs about $6-8 Billion next year, just to cover build out, debt coming due, that includes the $3.5 Billion it has to pay T-Mobile next year.

Also just noticed this, it’s Boost Mobile lost another 225,000, down to 7.5 Million subscribers, it had 9 million when Dish took over.

Lastly this-
Liberty Latin America Ltd. on Monday said it is to buy Dish airwaves rights in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands — and about 120,000 prepaid mobile subscribers in those markets — in exchange for cash and international roaming credits.

So selling what they can for quick cash.
edit, it was for $256 million.

Dish Falls Most in 23 Years After Earnings Miss Ahead of Merger

(Bloomberg) -- Dish Network Corp. suffered its worst stock decline in 23 years after reporting disappointing third-quarter revenue and a drop in wireless customers that was much worse than analysts predicted.Most Read from BloombergIsrael Latest: North Gaza Cut Off as Reported Deaths Pass...

finance.yahoo.com

Maybe they should try to just sell the bandwith back to the government or the highest bidder and get out of this pre paid cell phone business entirely. That way Charlie could take the money and invest it into the new merged Echostar/DISH companies. I don't think things are going to turn around at his rate.

 

[mwdxer1]

I just read quite the article on the future of pay tv in the U.S. With the loss of subs left and right, for the carriers to survive they will be forced to constantly increase prices. So the fewer there are, the more they will pay. I see not in the too distant future a time where many pay channels will be history and many of the ones that are left will to forced to go commercial. But there is a limit that. How many advertisers will support all of the services?

 

[AZ.]

I just read quite the article on the future of pay tv in the U.S. With the loss of subs left and right, for the carriers to survive they will be forced to constantly increase prices. So the fewer there are, the more they will pay. I see not in the too distant future a time where many pay channels will be history and many of the ones that are left will to forced to go commercial. But there is a limit that. How many advertisers will support all of the services?

What I dont understand is how can the providers ask for more? Less viewers and maybe bankrupt the company completely? So contracts will rise, viewership will fall. You would think at some point some money is better than no money?

 

[savarese04]

What I dont understand is how can the providers ask for more? Less viewers and maybe bankrupt the company completely? So contracts will rise, viewership will fall. You would think at some point some money is better than no money?

Because assuming that carriage fees stay flat no matter how many customers there are (they won't, but for the sake of argument), there are other components to running a cable provider. Many of these are fixed overhead fees - maintaining lines and retransmission centers, equipment, etc. So those costs will need to be redistributed among the existing subscribers in order to continue at least breaking even. These costs generally stay flat no matter what the business does, unlike things like headcount and B&M locations, which can be reduced to save money.

 

[dishdude]

I just read quite the article on the future of pay tv in the U.S. With the loss of subs left and right, for the carriers to survive they will be forced to constantly increase prices. So the fewer there are, the more they will pay. I see not in the too distant future a time where many pay channels will be history and many of the ones that are left will to forced to go commercial. But there is a limit that. How many advertisers will support all of the services?

We're already seeing that happen, especially with the locals. They're looking to makeup the loss of revenue from the drop in subs by increasing the carriage fees.

 

[Bruce]

Waiting for a confirmation, but it looks like Frontier Communication has totally stopped their Video Service and is now only using YTTV.

Previously, they were only offering YTTV to new subscribers, just like Fios, WOW and a few others.

Does not mean all former Paid Live TV moved to YTTV, some could of left, some could have subscribed to a different service, streaming or even satellite even.

They had over 250,000 in the second quarter, does not show any video subs in the third quarter, when I get time, I will confirm.

 

[telstar_1]

Because assuming that carriage fees stay flat no matter how many customers there are (they won't, but for the sake of argument), there are other components to running a cable provider. Many of these are fixed overhead fees - maintaining lines and retransmission centers, equipment, etc. So those costs will need to be redistributed among the existing subscribers in order to continue at least breaking even. These costs generally stay flat no matter what the business does, unlike things like headcount and B&M locations, which can be reduced to save money.

Right, not only will the providers have fewer cx's to spread operational costs over, they'll have reduced volume leverage in negotiating carriage. Something therefore has to give. The death spiral (or doom loop?) is ramping up so quickly that it's hard to predict exactly what. Maybe like certain costly channels being booted from basic.

 

[Bruce]

What a strange quarter.

While Traditional Satellite/Cable Providers have lost about 1.4 Million.

Streaming, with Hulu Live adding another 300,000, are now over 700,000 positive .

 

[Bruce]

Ok, Wide Open West has shut down their video service, now only offering YTTV, along with switching those that wished.

So, with Frontier doing the same, that is a negative 350,000 total, that might turn into a positive once we get YTTV numbers.

• Launched YouTubeTV as our video service for customers, providing better value and more robust choice of channels

WOW! REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2023 RESULTS

/PRNewswire/ -- WideOpenWest, Inc. ("WOW!" or the "Company") (NYSE: WOW), one of the nation's leading broadband providers, with an efficient, high-performing...

www.prnewswire.com

 

[NYDutch]

While upping the speed on the Spectrum Internet at our NY cottage, the CSR saw that I had only their Internet service. He said upping the speed for better streaming was a good idea since he expected Spectrum to drop their video service in favor of only streaming before too much longer.

 

[Bruce]

While upping the speed on the Spectrum Internet at our NY cottage, the CSR saw that I had only their Internet service. He said upping the speed for better streaming was a good idea since he expected Spectrum to drop their video service in favor of only streaming before too much longer.

They already announced it, first for new customers.

Spectrum has offered streaming only service for at least 3 years, that is when I first noticed it when we moved here.

 

[Bilbo1]

While upping the speed on the Spectrum Internet at our NY cottage, the CSR saw that I had only their Internet service. He said upping the speed for better streaming was a good idea since he expected Spectrum to drop their video service in favor of only streaming before too much longer.

I’m expecting a handful of companies to do what DirecTV did and offer a streaming version of their service. Spectrum seems like a likely candidate.

Although, Fubo may also be a takeover candidate for someone like Spectrum.

The question will be how many of these services can survive? I’m guessing 3, like wireless carriers…

The follow on is whether these services are a transition from traditional MVPD to an all direct-to-consumer streaming environment or are they the end state.


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[NYDutch]

I’m expecting a handful of companies to do what DirecTV did and offer a streaming version of their service. Spectrum seems like a likely candidate.

Although, Fubo may also be a takeover candidate for someone like Spectrum.

The question will be how many of these services can survive? I’m guessing 3, like wireless carriers…

The follow on is whether these services are a transition from traditional MVPD to an all direct-to-consumer streaming environment or are they the end state.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Spectrum already offers a streaming service, although I don't know if it carries all of their programming. It's been awhile since I've checked, but it used to be that there were some channels, including the locals, that could only be streamed if you were connected to Spectrum Internet in your home location. Pretty useless if you travel a lot.

 

[ncted]

Spectrum already offers a streaming service, although I don't know if it carries all of their programming. It's been awhile since I've checked, but it used to be that there were some channels, including the locals, that could only be streamed if you were connected to Spectrum Internet in your home location. Pretty useless if you travel a lot.

It does. That is what I my brother was using before my parents switched to YTTV. All the channels were there on streaming, and there was a rudimentary DVR. It worked pretty well, but not worth the price compared to YTTV.

 

[Bruce]

Broadband numbers are out for the 3rd Quarter-

Losers-
Comcast lost 18,000 but still has 32 million
Altice lost 30,700, but only has 4.5 million, so a bigger loss both in numbers and percentage

Winners-
Fixed Wireless Services
T-Mobile gained 557,000
Verizon gained 384,000

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[telstar_1]

Cable can hold subs through its broadband, a home necessity outside of TV. DiSH, otoh...easy to see why Charlie has tried to jump into cell phoning. Is he getting any penalties yet on his bought bandwidth for fail to launch?

 

[Bruce]

Cable can hold subs through its broadband, a home necessity outside of TV. DiSH, otoh...easy to see why Charlie has tried to jump into cell phoning. Is he getting any penalties yet on his bought bandwidth for fail to launch?

I believe the penalty was start building or lose the spectrum, before he was ready to do so.

Hence the money pit we have now.

When he started hoarding spectrum, buying Boost was not even in the cards, so I honestly do not know what his plans were in using all that spectrum.

 

[Bruce]

Final and wacky numbers.

Net loss was 465,000 for the quarter.

But not good news for Cable and Satellite
total losses for them-
negative 1,792,671

But streaming Live TV picked up, a lot-
plus 1,327,000

So, some still want Live TV, my guess it is from people leaving Cable/Satellite, a lot from DirecTV subs going to YTTV because of Sunday Ticket.

Takeaway, YTTV is about to over take Dish Satellite, within 120,000, pretty good for a service that has only been doing Live TV for 6 years vs a company doing it for 27 years.

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[MikeD-C05]

Broadband numbers are out for the 3rd Quarter-

Losers-
Comcast lost 18,000 but still has 32 million
Altice lost 30,700, but only has 4.5 million, so a bigger loss both in numbers and percentage

Winners-
Fixed Wireless Services
T-Mobile gained 557,000
Verizon gained 384,000

Home - Leichtman Research Group, Inc.

Since 2002, Leichtman Research Group, Inc. (LRG) has specialized in research and analysis of the broadband, media and entertainment industries in the U.S. LRG combines ongoing industry tracking and analysis with consumer research to provide companies with a richer understanding of current market...

leichtmanresearch.com

I bet most of those new subs will cut the cord as well. Having broadband allows you to do that. As more broadband spreads across the country, financed by the infrastructure act of 2021 , you will see even more cable/satellite subs cut the cord.