Netflix Looking to Take NFL’s Sunday Afternoon Games from Fox and CBS in Next Media Deal

[Bruce]

According to a report from ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio, Netflix will try moving in on the NFL's Sunday afternoon games. With the current deals, that slate of games belongs to Fox and CBS. NBC handles Sunday Night Football; Amazon has Thursday Night Football; and ESPN/ABC is in charge of Monday Night Football.

The current deals are set to run through 2033, but the NFL has the option end them four years early in 2029. The league, Florio added, will "likely" do that.

Netflix Looking to Take NFL’s Sunday Afternoon Games from Fox and CBS in Next Media Deal: Report

After streaming its first NFL games on Christmas, Netflix will be seeking a much bigger piece of the pie in the league's next media deal.

www.mediaite.com

 

[comfortably_numb]

As long as they still have to broadcast the local team OTA, it's ok with me.

 

[dishdude]

As long as they still have to broadcast the local team OTA, it's ok with me.

I doubt they'd still be broadcast OTA.

 

[comfortably_numb]

I doubt they'd still be broadcast OTA.

Isn't there a rule that the local team has to provide an OTA feed even if the source of the game is streaming? (Like the Christmas Day game)

 

[meStevo]

Yeah, local markets always have their game OTA, I don't see that changing.

 

[Bruce]

Isn't there a rule that the local team has to provide an OTA feed even if the source of the game is streaming? (Like the Christmas Day game)

That is only because the current contract ( as have the past ones) allows that.

With a new deal with Netflix, all bets are off.

I spoke to my friend that used to work for them, from what she heard, Netflix wants all the rights, AFC, NFC, day games, night games, playoffs, Super bowl, is willing to pay for it, way above what the Networks will offer.

The NFL is willing, because they believe this will help expand the NFL globally.

By 2029, imagine how many more subscribers Netflix will have here in the United States, compared to Paid Live TV, who would be on Life Support at that point.

Globally, Netflix has 301 Million, about 70 Million in the states.

 

[Jimbo]

That is only because the current contract ( as have the past ones) allows that.

With a new deal with Netflix, all bets are off.

I spoke to my friend that used to work for them, from what she heard, Netflix wants all the rights, AFC, NFC, day games, night games, playoffs, Super bowl, is willing to pay for it, way above what the Networks will offer.

The NFL is willing, because they believe this will help expand the NFL globally.

By 2029, imagine how many more subscribers Netflix will have here in the United States, compared to Paid Live TV, who would be on Life Support at that point.

Globally, Netflix has 301 Million, about 70 Million in the states.

Can't wait, Netflix $70 a month ....
Sunday Ticket (with Netflix sub already $700 +

Why, because they Can and Will, there is No regulations to Stop any of this.

What happens when the NFL prices itself OUT of everyones Price point.

 

[comfortably_numb]

What happens when the NFL prices itself OUT of everyones Price point.

Same thing that's happening with MLB and the RSN's probably... implosion

 

[cpalmer2k]

Unless something drastic changes I don't see the NFL giving up the cash cow that is broadcast TV. What most likely would happen is they would carve out another package of games for Netflix to air in addition to the other partners. They keep expanding the slate of international games. They could easily schedule one nearly every week of the season and air them on Netflix for example.

Even if Netflix did buy the whole package the local games would still be available OTA in the markets of the competing teams. That is part of the deal the NFL made with Congress to deal with antitrust issues. That can't go away unless the law is changed, less they risk being declared a monopoly.

 

[Jimbo]

Unless something drastic changes I don't see the NFL giving up the cash cow that is broadcast TV. What most likely would happen is they would carve out another package of games for Netflix to air in addition to the other partners. They keep expanding the slate of international games. They could easily schedule one nearly every week of the season and air them on Netflix for example.

Even if Netflix did buy the whole package the local games would still be available OTA in the markets of the competing teams. That is part of the deal the NFL made with Congress to deal with antitrust issues. That can't go away unless the law is changed, less they risk being declared a monopoly.

I'm actually referring to the Out Of Market side of things as 2 of my teams are Not Accessible with out OOM package.
The Lions I can get locally, but I follow many teams for different reasons.
Former Buckeyes !

 

[zippyfrog]

Just doing a quick search online for the major deals per year - ESPN is $2.7 billion, FOX is $2.2 billion, CBS is $2.1 billion, NBC is $2 billion, Sunday Ticket is $2 billion, Amazon is $1 billion. That is $12 billion per year. And I am sure there are other deals - like the NFL Network games, and I don't know if these deals include the streaming only games on ESPN+ and Peacock, and it doesn't include Christmas games on Netflix.

I am going to round the estimate to a very very gracious $15 billion per year. Let's say Netflix comes in and offers something ludicrous at $35 billion per year for everything. And Netflix says it is all or nothing deal. There is no way all the other entities are going to come together to be $35 billion - in that regard, Netflix is now a cash cow that broadcast can't compete with.

 

[Bruce]

Unless something drastic changes I don't see the NFL giving up the cash cow that is broadcast TV.

Ummm, what cash cow do you believe Broadcast TV to be?

Every year, stations takes in less and less revenue due to Cord Cutting.

They have lost 35 Million per sub fees, at the rate of 6 Million lost per year ( actually 8 Million, YTTV seems to gain 2 Million of those that leaves).

By 2029, Broadcast/Cable Channels will have lost another 24 Million per sub fees, Satellite TV will be shut down by then.

Then revenue from commercials, advertisers spend, every year, about $60 Billion on TV ads, by 2026, it will be evenly split between Traditional TV and Streaming, where just a few years ago, it was all spent on Broadcast/Cable Channels.

The real Cash Cow is Netflix, it takes in, on average, $3.3 Billion a month, almost $40 Billion a year.

If this was just 8 years ago, you would be correct, Traditional TV was a Cash Cow, had 100 Million Subscribers. along with all of the monies from advertising, the world has changed.

By 2029, Traditional TV will have a lot less per sub fees, save for advertising revenue, Netflix will continue to grow, as projected.

 

[comfortably_numb]

There is no way all the other entities are going to come together to be $35 billion - in that regard, Netflix is now a cash cow that broadcast can't compete with.

And what will a Netflix subscription cost then? Not everybody cares about the NFL.

 

[Bruce]

And what will a Netflix subscription cost then? Not everybody cares about the NFL.

What will Traditional TV cost if they agree to the increased costs of the NFL.

I believe it is a moot point, the new contract will be with Netflix for two reasons.

More $$$$, the only ones who could afford it will be Netflix, maybe Disney and CBS, if the Global expansion of Paramount+ works out ( the majority of their 72 Million subscribers are here and Canada).

Then the other plus being on Netflix, is a global audience, which the NFL has been trying to do for years, with a little success , why do they want to expand, merchandising to a global market.

NFL generates about $4 billion in revenue each year from merchandise sales, which are largely here in the states, if they increase their global audience, more sales from the other markets (countries).

 

[comfortably_numb]

What will Traditional TV cost if they agree to the increased costs of the NFL.

I believe it is a moot point, the new contract will be with Netflix for two reasons.

More $$$$, the only ones who could afford it will be Netflix, maybe Disney and CBS, if the Global expansion of Paramount+ works out ( the majority of their 72 Million subscribers are here and Canada).

Then the other plus being on Netflix, is a global audience, which the NFL has been trying to do for years, with a little success , why do they want to expand, merchandising to a global market.

NFL generates about $4 billion in revenue each year from merchandise sales, which are largely here in the states, if they increase their global audience, more sales from the other markets (countries).

That doesn't really answer the question. Netflix taking over the NFL isn't the same as them taking over broadcasting WWE or one-off live events here and there. It turns them into a major sports broadcaster. A lot of people watch Netflix for the original content and the movies. Are they going to triple their price and dump non-sports viewers?

 

[klang]

If this comes to pass, I sure hope the NFL stuff is in a differently priced tier. I have no interest.

 

[Bruce]

Are they going to triple their price and dump non-sports viewers?

Why would they triple the price if they received the NFL Contract?

Netflix is expected to grow another 60-80 Million new subscribers by 2029.

That alone is ( I will average it at 70 Million) $770 Million a month, or an extra $9.2 Billion by 2029.

Then, Netflix's average revenue per user (ARPU) is $11, averaged out globally ( every country pays a different amount).

By 2029, it should be $15 per user globally, so if Netflix is up to 370 Million users, that is $5.5 Billion a month, that is over $66 Billion a year, they could easily afford the NFL.

 

[comfortably_numb]

that is over $66 Billion a year, they could easily afford the NFL.

I don't see them giving up half their net income to buy the rights to the NFL broadcasts and not pass some of that cost on to the customers.

 

[Jimbo]

Just doing a quick search online for the major deals per year - ESPN is $2.7 billion, FOX is $2.2 billion, CBS is $2.1 billion, NBC is $2 billion, Sunday Ticket is $2 billion, Amazon is $1 billion. That is $12 billion per year. And I am sure there are other deals - like the NFL Network games, and I don't know if these deals include the streaming only games on ESPN+ and Peacock, and it doesn't include Christmas games on Netflix.

I am going to round the estimate to a very very gracious $15 billion per year. Let's say Netflix comes in and offers something ludicrous at $35 billion per year for everything. And Netflix says it is all or nothing deal. There is no way all the other entities are going to come together to be $35 billion - in that regard, Netflix is now a cash cow that broadcast can't compete with.

Would you Trust them to do the Whole host of Sunday games (excluding Sunday Night)

 

[Bruce]

I don't see them giving up half their net income to buy the rights to the NFL broadcasts and not pass some of that cost on to the customers.

Half?

Right now the NFL receives $12-13 Billion from the Networks, so maybe Netflix offers $15 Billion, increase their global audience pricing a couple of dollars more.

But expanding to a global audience might be worth it to the NFL to take $15 Billion, which is still more then what they would get from the networks, if they stuck with the contract until 2033.

Netflix is the best option for that global expansion.

And again, based on current projections, how much could the networks offer in 4 years, based on the dwindling revenues, they might be happy to get the NFL off the books in 2029.