My own conclusion: MPEG4 upgrade will be free.
- Thread starter markusian
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I think they should have made the recievers upgradable in as many ways as possible.
For those that has no alternative to satellite for television programming they will be more willing to pay to upgrade but those that have an alternative to satellite which is cable (and soon to be other services such as verizon) they would LOVE to take a big chunk of customers if satellite chooses to charge everyone an upgrade fee. I am going to stick with my original thought in that a lot of customers will churn if they are forced to pay upfront to keep their programming. Now if they choose to raise the programming rates to make up for it then that would not hurt as bad because it would just be another increase as usual.
Perhaps they could allow those that want a basic package still be able to use the MPEG-2 reciever and get a limited number of channels with it and require the upgrade to get the premium and HD/ED/digital stuff (at least for a while). As channels migrate to the HD/ED/digital standard it could carry a premium and customers could be allowed to rent the hardware to upgrade to it. I bet satellite companies will offer promotions to customers to try to get them to upgrade at their cost for a while to get these recievers until they decide to swap the rest of them out.
For those that has no alternative to satellite for television programming they will be more willing to pay to upgrade but those that have an alternative to satellite which is cable (and soon to be other services such as verizon) they would LOVE to take a big chunk of customers if satellite chooses to charge everyone an upgrade fee. I am going to stick with my original thought in that a lot of customers will churn if they are forced to pay upfront to keep their programming. Now if they choose to raise the programming rates to make up for it then that would not hurt as bad because it would just be another increase as usual.
Perhaps they could allow those that want a basic package still be able to use the MPEG-2 reciever and get a limited number of channels with it and require the upgrade to get the premium and HD/ED/digital stuff (at least for a while). As channels migrate to the HD/ED/digital standard it could carry a premium and customers could be allowed to rent the hardware to upgrade to it. I bet satellite companies will offer promotions to customers to try to get them to upgrade at their cost for a while to get these recievers until they decide to swap the rest of them out.
ocaddict said:
I don't know the exact internal workings but heres what I assume is the reason.
In using your analogy, it isn't the OS that is the problem. It would be more like having an ALL-IN-ONE computer motherboard with everything soldered in place.
Now take that motherboard and assign it a top throughput speed of 100MHZ on the front side bus.(arbitrary value) because the FSB chip has a top speed set internally upon manufacture of the chip.
So, even if you upgrade the software, the hardware still remains a fixed value and mpeg2 decoder is on a 'chip' of the main board. Therefore E* recievers can't be reprogrammed to handle the new encryption/compression of mpeg4.
Ideally an EEPROM decoder would have been the best method to do what you are saying, but then it would leave E* to more expense and vulnerability of hacking the chip. (there already is enough of that going around with the hard coded chips in place) That in itself is one good reason to change the whole data stream to mpeg4.
Sending a unit back to be upgraded would be nearly impossible since the hardware logistics and manpower cost would outweigh the replacement value alone.
I'm not defending E*, but it is a technology transition that mimics reel-to-reel, to 8-track tapes, to cassette, to Compact Disc, to mp3 players(ipod). You will be able to 'fit' more information into the same amount of space and that is what todays society/market demands.
Now back to the idea that E* will give away all these receivers for free is a fantasy. IMHO there will be some 'angle' that will get the customer to PAY for these upgrades in one form or another. You will either be forced into a 1-2 year agreement, or every Jan-Mar, you will see a programming/service fee increase in your monthly billing.
Doesn't matter if it is D* or E* or cable, you(me), the customer, will be the one to absorb the cost over time. It has been, and always will be that way.
We already see a programming fee increase every year but perhaps it would be a larger increase than what it used to be which in return will also cause more churn.
dmodemd said:
Wish I would have known this (A 14.4k to a 56.6k modem...) I even had a 16.8 USR HST (Dual Standard Modem) I spent almost $800 on and was never able to upgrade that - bums me out......
Sorry, you're wrong.dmodemd said:
Mark_AR: Your concepts are pretty good, but your tech details are way off.
No EPROM decoding chip is feasible - the processing power required is to do that is MUCH more expensive than a MPEG chip.
Harry said:
Yea, no doubt, they should have put PCMCIA slots in them for upgradability. That's what Voom did with their receivers. Unfortunately Voom didn't last long enough to use the feature.
Whether a receiver will require a new chip for MPEG4 depends on how powerful its CPU is. Remember, the first DVD-ROM drives required a separate decoder card (with its own chips, of course) to watch movies on the PC, because PC CPUs weren't fast enough to do real-time MPEG2 decoding. Eventually, as CPUs became fast enough to do the job, software decoders became the norm. So just because the box can't possibly have an MPEG4 chip in it doesn't mean it won't do MPEG4 eventually. (And just like today, it only has to decode, NOT encode.)
Yes, I know 8PSK and MPEG4 aren't the same thing; but if they can't load at least some receivers with software upgrades to MPEG4, then why did E* release SD receivers with 8PSK tuning? (Especially the 311--AFAIK the only difference between it and the 301 was 8PSK. The 522 has 8PSK as well.) As I understood it, SD channels won't go to 8PSK until they go to MPEG4. And the only reason I can see that SBC Dish only supports three receivers (311, 522, 811--all with 8PSK) is that they're more upgradeable than the rest; remember, all SBC receivers are leased, and SBC (not E*) owns them.
Yes, I know 8PSK and MPEG4 aren't the same thing; but if they can't load at least some receivers with software upgrades to MPEG4, then why did E* release SD receivers with 8PSK tuning? (Especially the 311--AFAIK the only difference between it and the 301 was 8PSK. The 522 has 8PSK as well.) As I understood it, SD channels won't go to 8PSK until they go to MPEG4. And the only reason I can see that SBC Dish only supports three receivers (311, 522, 811--all with 8PSK) is that they're more upgradeable than the rest; remember, all SBC receivers are leased, and SBC (not E*) owns them.
Here's my feeling.....
They will add channels to try and entice many of the early adopters to pay to upgrade. After a year or so they will have some $99 upgrade to try and get the fencesitters. Another year after that, they will announce that they are shutting off the Mpeg 2 feeds and that you need to call and get a free upgrade in exchange for a 1 or 2 year commitment or Credit Card Autopay signup (like they did with the Dish500 dishes a few years ago).
They will add channels to try and entice many of the early adopters to pay to upgrade. After a year or so they will have some $99 upgrade to try and get the fencesitters. Another year after that, they will announce that they are shutting off the Mpeg 2 feeds and that you need to call and get a free upgrade in exchange for a 1 or 2 year commitment or Credit Card Autopay signup (like they did with the Dish500 dishes a few years ago).
I'm not sure this will happen but if I were doing the planning for the upgrade, I would tie it to an ROI formula.
Consider the cost of a subscriber lost to be $100 per month. Consider an HD DVR and a regular receiver in another room wholesale cost to upgrade to be $500 + $200 or $700 for that subscriber-
If you tell the subscriber he will have to pay "cost" he will most likely walk and E* will lose $100 per month. If they give the pair away, they keep the subscriber but BE in 7 months, or figure a year if they discount the cost of programming into the ROI formula.
But, what if the customer walks 5 months after receiving the equipment?
The best thing to do would be to require a graduated investment downpayment based on the subscription vs. the hardware. e.g. If the subscriber has 4 receiver's to replace with one being a DVR and only pays $35 a month programming charges, his replacement equipment cost would be much higher than say for a subscriber who had a single DVR and pays $120 per month programming.
I have oftern said, with these multichannel providers, it's all about programming, never about equipment. So, if you can lock a subscriber into a $100-$120 monthly amortization but only requires a single HDDVR, why not make his transition "free" while the guy who's amortization is $30 per month but has several receivers, should have to pay more to transition as his ROI to E* would take 3 times longer.
Another way is to require a longer commitment depending on the monthly ROI as well.
But, if E* thinks they can simply say, on this date everyone will need to buy new receivers because we are obsoleting your existing equipment. The equipment cost will be similar to what you just paid, then they should expect to be closing their doors as 90% of the subs will walk to other services. I don't care if they have the best HDTV programming around, the competition, even cable is "good enough" considering what having the same picture in MP4 vs. MP2 will get us.
Yes, I think they will need to consider the value of a subscriber based on the monthly revenue to determine what each will have to pay or commit to when the upgrade rolls around to reality.
But in any case, history tell us that what is first offered will be at early adopter cost and when the shut down happens will be the best deals. In other words, those new MP4 HD channels will require you purchase the full retail price of the MP4 equipment, but later when the shutdown happens on existing channels, you get the same equipment for cheap, or, better equipment for cheap.
Consider the cost of a subscriber lost to be $100 per month. Consider an HD DVR and a regular receiver in another room wholesale cost to upgrade to be $500 + $200 or $700 for that subscriber-
If you tell the subscriber he will have to pay "cost" he will most likely walk and E* will lose $100 per month. If they give the pair away, they keep the subscriber but BE in 7 months, or figure a year if they discount the cost of programming into the ROI formula.
But, what if the customer walks 5 months after receiving the equipment?
The best thing to do would be to require a graduated investment downpayment based on the subscription vs. the hardware. e.g. If the subscriber has 4 receiver's to replace with one being a DVR and only pays $35 a month programming charges, his replacement equipment cost would be much higher than say for a subscriber who had a single DVR and pays $120 per month programming.
I have oftern said, with these multichannel providers, it's all about programming, never about equipment. So, if you can lock a subscriber into a $100-$120 monthly amortization but only requires a single HDDVR, why not make his transition "free" while the guy who's amortization is $30 per month but has several receivers, should have to pay more to transition as his ROI to E* would take 3 times longer.
Another way is to require a longer commitment depending on the monthly ROI as well.
But, if E* thinks they can simply say, on this date everyone will need to buy new receivers because we are obsoleting your existing equipment. The equipment cost will be similar to what you just paid, then they should expect to be closing their doors as 90% of the subs will walk to other services. I don't care if they have the best HDTV programming around, the competition, even cable is "good enough" considering what having the same picture in MP4 vs. MP2 will get us.
Yes, I think they will need to consider the value of a subscriber based on the monthly revenue to determine what each will have to pay or commit to when the upgrade rolls around to reality.
But in any case, history tell us that what is first offered will be at early adopter cost and when the shut down happens will be the best deals. In other words, those new MP4 HD channels will require you purchase the full retail price of the MP4 equipment, but later when the shutdown happens on existing channels, you get the same equipment for cheap, or, better equipment for cheap.
I can see your point with making those that pay less per month to pay more for the upgrade and those that pay more per month pay less for an upgrade but this is backwards to what will be accepted. Those with the cheaper packages probably would be less willing and have less money to do the upgrade while those that pay more per month would be more willing and have more money to do the upgrade.
Trust me on this, most will ABSOLUTELY NOT be willing to pay for an upgrade. They will switch. Especially when Verizon Fiber and other companies yet to come out start offering bundling services, it will be just another reason to leave.
They will make subscribers pay for the MPEG-4 hardware for a while because it will be a premium and keep the basic package on MPEG-2 for a while until it comes time for them to want to swap those customers out as well. They could use the recievers traded in for the MPEG-4's to supply those customers that just want the basic package or to acquire new customers without having money invested in the hardware to help pay for the swapout or sell them very cheap or have them in promotions. The MPEG-2 recievers will be bountifull and I do not think Dish Network will want to throw them away.
What about ExpressVu? Are they going MPEG-4 as well or could Dish Network sell them all of these leftover recievers?
Trust me on this, most will ABSOLUTELY NOT be willing to pay for an upgrade. They will switch. Especially when Verizon Fiber and other companies yet to come out start offering bundling services, it will be just another reason to leave.
They will make subscribers pay for the MPEG-4 hardware for a while because it will be a premium and keep the basic package on MPEG-2 for a while until it comes time for them to want to swap those customers out as well. They could use the recievers traded in for the MPEG-4's to supply those customers that just want the basic package or to acquire new customers without having money invested in the hardware to help pay for the swapout or sell them very cheap or have them in promotions. The MPEG-2 recievers will be bountifull and I do not think Dish Network will want to throw them away.
What about ExpressVu? Are they going MPEG-4 as well or could Dish Network sell them all of these leftover recievers?
thevoice said:
Off topice - the USR Dual-Standard was suposed to cover all the bases, but unfortunately was almost outdated before it was repleased. The USR Courier was upgradable. I still have my Courier from 1989. STILL the most stable and versatile dial connection around. Dish could really learn a thing or two from USR (or 3Com...or whatever they are now)
bcshields said:
I have seen them offering 2 free years of DHPP with there new offers of 1 and 2 year commitment.
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