Incentive Auction Discussion
- Thread starter Trip
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From what I have heard, none of the stations in my DMA (Kansas City Mo/Ks) have participated in the auction and I have heard additional rumors that the repack won't happen at all. What's the "word around the campfire?"
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I agree that there doesn't appear to be much point in bothering with the Stage (NOT Round) 3 forward auction process. The supply at this time has shown to be too much greater than the demand and the more auctions they have to find out exactly what it is worth, the higher the overhead.
So if there is no Stage 3, does that effectively mean that the repack is dead?
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yeah I like the boxing terminology better, see who gets the knockout in what round. the broadcasters, the wireless companies or the fcc
I think it is an idea that is a little ahead of its time.
I kind of expect that they will only get half way to their original goal or less but they're going to have to get to that point a lot quicker than one or two channels per stage. The wireless companies are hopefully planning on more efficient technologies rather than delving into the lower frequencies. Cellular was based on the idea of frequency reuse and having frequencies that travel farther doesn't mesh well with that concept.
FCC Forward Auction Bidding Starts Dec. 5
http://www.multichannel.com/news/fcc/fcc-forward-auction-bidding-starts-dec-5/409390
As expected, bidding in stage three of the forward auction will begin Dec. 5, the FCC said Friday.
Stage two of the forward auction only took one round after bidders all decided to reduce their demand rather than raise their prices and stuck with the $22 billion they had bid in stage one, far below broadcasters' first two asking prices of $86 billion for 126 MHz and $55 billion for 114 MHz.
I doubt it lasts long. I just don't see them doubling what they offered in the first 2.
http://www.multichannel.com/news/fcc/fcc-forward-auction-bidding-starts-dec-5/409390
As expected, bidding in stage three of the forward auction will begin Dec. 5, the FCC said Friday.
Stage two of the forward auction only took one round after bidders all decided to reduce their demand rather than raise their prices and stuck with the $22 billion they had bid in stage one, far below broadcasters' first two asking prices of $86 billion for 126 MHz and $55 billion for 114 MHz.
I doubt it lasts long. I just don't see them doubling what they offered in the first 2.
What Happens If The Spectrum Auction Fails?
http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/99815/what-happens-if-the-spectrum-auction-fails
Where are we now?
Stage 3 just finished, Ryvicker continued, with the broadcast "ask" falling to $40.3 billion (from $86.4 billion in Stage 1 and $54.6 billion in Stage 2) and the wireless "bid" falling to $19.1 billion (from $23 billion in Stage 1 and $20.8 billion in Stage 2). Unfortunately, it's this $19.1 billion that is cause for concern, as we want the forward price to RISE, not FALL. We'll get info on Stage 4 (84 MHz cleared, 70MHz sold) this Friday (Dec. 9).”
http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/99815/what-happens-if-the-spectrum-auction-fails
Where are we now?
Stage 3 just finished, Ryvicker continued, with the broadcast "ask" falling to $40.3 billion (from $86.4 billion in Stage 1 and $54.6 billion in Stage 2) and the wireless "bid" falling to $19.1 billion (from $23 billion in Stage 1 and $20.8 billion in Stage 2). Unfortunately, it's this $19.1 billion that is cause for concern, as we want the forward price to RISE, not FALL. We'll get info on Stage 4 (84 MHz cleared, 70MHz sold) this Friday (Dec. 9).”
Is it not reasonable at some level to assume that less spectrum is going to fetch less proceeds (at least until wireless is up against a wall)?
This would appear to support the idea that the timing is wrong and that the effort will go down in flames with a substantial amount of money having been wasted on conducting the stages.
This time they're adding back four TV channels that brings us to where I claimed that they should have been (not having the reverse auction spectrum straddling channel 35).
There seems to be some issues with the math in the article. With a clearing target of 108MHz, they were going to be selling 80MHz but with a clearing target of 84MHz (reduced by 24MHz), the forward auction is for 70MHz (reduced by only 10MHz)?
Without the reverse auction proceeds, it may well put a damper on the progress of ATSC 3.0. Is that really what you want?
Haven't you said before that those are two separate things?
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At 84 MHz, you don't need to buy 14 MHz worth of guard band on the lower end because channel 37 is that guard band. See the band plan chart:
https://www.fcc.gov/sites/default/files/Band-Plan-for-LEARN.png
They are. However, he could be right in the sense that even though the government won't pay for the conversion to ATSC 3.0 itself, money raised selling spectrum in the auction could be reinvested in deploying ATSC 3.0 on a station owner's remaining stations.
- Trip
That's indeed what I was thinking. Having to go through one partially subsidized conversion is better than having to ultimately go through two separate conversions -- only the latter of which is partially subsidized.
How many rounds its gonna go till the damn cow jumps over the moon. The damn wireless fools need to concede and call it quits. Hopefully their bids continue to fall, leave the broadcast airwaves alone you big overpriced wastes of money.
The wireless companies seem to hit a big obstacle, good for them, why they continue to the next hopefully they give up and fold
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