Everyone has different experiences - read around, there are tons of threads on the subject.
I was offered $199 last week. I'm going to call again in the next day or two. If they offer me that again, I'll probably take it, although I'm going to ask if I qualify for any programming credits.
I just got a free HR20 in August, so am not counting on miracles (that was an H10 upgrade, not HR10) since I got a free one so recently.