How things have changed

[Bruce]

I was reading this article about Comcast’s plan to spin off the Cable Channels, how it looks to be a disaster-

Comcast’s ‘SpinCo’ ratings slide has been ‘catastrophic,’ Moffett analyst says

Two weeks after Comcast officially became the first major U.S. | The media company is spinning off its struggling cable channels, but steep ratings slides could limit their value in the M&A marketplace.

www.streamtvinsider.com

Noticed a few things inserted in there-

First, ratings for NBC/Comcast’s owned Cable Channels-

Then they show revenue for Warner, Fox and AMC Cable Channels-

that revenue for Warner Bros. Discovery’s cable networks is set to drop by 13% in 2024 vs. 2022, while AMC Networks channels will see a sales decline by more than 20% over that same span. Fox’s mix of news and sports, meanwhile, offers resistance to the erosion, with revenue expected to grow by 6%.

 

[Bruce]

Streaming continues to go up in ratings-

Streaming viewership increased 7.6% in the November interval and the category posted a record share of TV with 41.6% (+1.1 pt.).

TV Viewing in November Interval Reaches Highest Level Since February, Streaming Nabs Largest Share of TV Ever in The Gauge™ | Nielsen

Streaming accounts for 41.6% of time spent watching TV in November, with The Roku Channel, Prime Video and YouTube each hitting platform-best shares

www.nielsen.com

 

[Bruce]

2025 preview: Will pay-TV finally hit rock bottom?

It's still not clear if pay-TV losses will bottom out in 2025 as more sports pivot to streaming. But the broader challenges of the pay-TV biz will cause more operators to exit and cede video to third-party streaming options.

www.lightreading.com

 

[comfortably_numb]

2025 preview: Will pay-TV finally hit rock bottom?

It's still not clear if pay-TV losses will bottom out in 2025 as more sports pivot to streaming. But the broader challenges of the pay-TV biz will cause more operators to exit and cede video to third-party streaming options.

www.lightreading.com

"...even the vMVPDs are starting to look like the traditional multichannel options they are attempting to replace as their lineups become more bloated and their prices rise. YouTube TV, a bright spot in the pay-TV world, has effectively become just another pricey option in the wake of a recent $10 price increase that raises the baseline service cost to $82.99. That's a far cry from the $35 per month YouTube TV was charging when it launched in 2017."

Amen.

 

[b4pjoe]

People moved from their $100+ per month cable/sat package to cheap vMVPDs and then complained about the lack of channels that the vMVPDs then added and then those people now complain about the increased costs...Round and round it goes.

 

[Bruce]

"...even the vMVPDs are starting to look like the traditional multichannel options they are attempting to replace as their lineups become more bloated and their prices rise. YouTube TV, a bright spot in the pay-TV world, has effectively become just another pricey option in the wake of a recent $10 price increase that raises the baseline service cost to $82.99. That's a far cry from the $35 per month YouTube TV was charging when it launched in 2017."

Amen.

Of course, that article does not bring up the increases for Cable/Satellite TV over that same time period.

Or the fact that all the fees the Traditional Providers charge, are included in YTTV’s price, like Bos), DVR, Local Channels.

Then you have an extra RSN charge, for a channel that the extreme vast majority do not watch.

For example, Dish’s America 120+ is the closet to the channels in YTTV package.

New Customer Price with 3 boxes/DVR-$126 a month, so $43 more a month.

DirecTV and Comcast are even more.

So, if you want a Live TV service, would you rather pay $996 a year for a bunch of rerun channels, or $1512 a year, or more depending on the service.

 

[comfortably_numb]

So, if you want a Live TV service, would you rather pay $996 a year for a bunch of rerun channels, or $1512 a year, or more depending on the service.

I think the point being made was that YTTV and other OTT bundles were supposed to be a cheaper alternative to cable and satellite, but are now priced similarly, albeit still slightly less expensive. Lines are becoming blurred.

 

[Bruce]

I think the point being made was that YTTV and other OTT bundles were supposed to be a cheaper alternative to cable and satellite, but are now priced similarly, albeit still slightly less expensive. Lines are becoming blurred.

A $500+ a year difference, is not slightly less expensive.

Plus, considering that there is less and less new scripted content every year, paying the extra costs of Cable/Satellite services makes it even worse.

For example, USA, TNT, TBS all used to have scripted TV Shows, no longer, then channels like FX, SyFy and AMC have cut their new content by about 50%.

SyFy is worse, only has one series set for 2025, Revival, plus another series that is produced by CTV.

 

[ncted]

A $500+ a year difference, is not slightly less expensive.

Plus, considering that there is less and less new scripted content every year, paying the extra costs of Cable/Satellite services makes it even worse.

For example, USA, TNT, TBS all used to have scripted TV Shows, no longer, then channels like FX, SyFy and AMC have cut their new content by about 50%.

SyFy is worse, only has one series set for 2025, Revival, plus another series that is produced by CTV.

I agree with comfortably_numb that the price difference is decreasing. I actually know several people who have switched from YTTV and Hulu+Live to Sling+OTA over the past couple years due to the price increases. I personally could no longer justify paying for a Live TV service, so I just have OTA now.

I think the problem is the channel owners are playing harder ball now that the vMVPDs are successful. It is one thing to give them a discount when they are a small part of the market since they represented just a small incremental revenue stream. It is another to continue that as they cannibalize your traditional customer base (cable/sat).

 

[b4pjoe]

I agree with comfortably_numb that the price difference is decreasing. I actually know several people who have switched from YTTV and Hulu+Live to Sling+OTA over the past couple years due to the price increases. I personally could no longer justify paying for a Live TV service, so I just have OTA now.

I think the problem is the channel owners are playing harder ball now that the vMVPDs are successful. It is one thing to give them a discount when they are a small part of the market since they represented just a small incremental revenue stream. It is another to continue that as they cannibalize your traditional customer base (cable/sat).

I'm not sure how the "price difference is decreasing" when cable/sat MVPDs are still regularly raising their prices at least once a year and sometimes twice a year. In the case of YTTV when the new increase takes effect that will be their first price increase in 22 months.

Bruce has posted the stats before that of the people that leave traditional sat/cable MVPDs only about 29% of them move to a vMVPD which means about 70% choose the streaming services that are not vMVPDs or they are just giving up TV altogether. So it isn't vMVPDs that are cannibalizing the traditional customer base.

 

[Bruce]

I agree with comfortably_numb that the price difference is decreasing. I actually know several people who have switched from YTTV and Hulu+Live to Sling+OTA over the past couple years due to the price increases. I personally could no longer justify paying for a Live TV service, so I just have OTA now.

I went back over the last two years, just comparing YTTV to Dish, YTTV has gone up $10 in two years ( including this month), Dish $12, so the difference is increasing, worse for DirecTV and Comcast, who has had 3 Price increases in that same timeframe.

I think the problem is the channel owners are playing harder ball now that the vMVPDs are successful. It is one thing to give them a discount when they are a small part of the market since they represented just a small incremental revenue stream. It is another to continue that as they cannibalize your traditional customer base (cable/sat).

They are going to ride that money train as long as they can.

But there is no evidence even if those channel owners got rid of those rerun channels, that providers would lower their rates.

When Dish terminated the RSNs from the line-up a few years ago, they still had their annual price increase, even if they were no longer paying a high priced per sub fee.

Same for Charter, when they got rid of about a third of the Disney owned channels, still had their increase.

Bruce has posted the stats before that of the people that leave traditional sat/cable MVPDs only about 29% of them move to a vMVPD which means about 70% choose the streaming services that are not vMVPDs or they are just giving up TV altogether. So it isn't vMVPDs that are cannibalizing the traditional customer base.

Those were 2023 numbers, when YTTV picked up 2 Million subscribers, in 2024, the vMVPD services have been treading water basically, barely any gains, some with losses.

So I expect that 29% rate to drop.

More and more have come to the realization, that those streaming services have the vast majority of content from paid Live TV, plus an extremely large amount of the streaming content, for a less expensive price.

Plus the better video/sound quality ( I cannot be the only one that cares about that).

Or this fact, if they go for the with commercials plan (yech), they are paying about 1/4 to 1/2 ( depends on how many services they have) less then the price they use to, when they had Cable/Satellite.

 

[ncted]

I went back over the last two years, just comparing YTTV to Dish, YTTV has gone up $10 in two years ( including this month), Dish $12, so the difference is increasing, worse for DirecTV and Comcast, who has had 3 Price increases in that same timeframe.

OK. Fair. However, that $10 YTTV price increase is a larger percentage increase than the $12 Dish increase, and the increases have become large and regular enough that people are complaining. The result is the same. People are unhappy with the price increases, no matter which platform they are using. I'd still recommend YTTV to someone wanting to leave cable/sat but still get the same channels, but it isn't as easy a sell as it used to be when people realize they have to learn a new interface. It was a hard sell to my parents even when they were saving $70/month, and they still occassionally need help to figure out how to do something.

 

[Bruce]

OK. Fair. However, that $10 YTTV price increase is a larger percentage increase than the $12 Dish increase,

That is just math, if you add a $10 increase to $73, that will result in a higher percentage, then if you added that same $10 to $110, a lower percentage.

and the increases have become large and regular enough that people are complaining.

YouTube TV increases-

• 2017: $35 per month
• 2018: $40 per month (1st increase)
• 2019: $50 per month
• 2020: $65 per month
• 2023: $73 per month
• 2025: $83 per month
• 
  
• So a total of $48

DirecTV
2018 $5
2019 $10 increase
2020 $10 increase
2021 $9 increase
2022 $5-10 (depends on Package)
Jan 2023 $5-10
Nov 2023 $5-10
Oct 2024 $5-7
2025-we all know it is coming

$54-71 in increases, with 2025 yet to happen, this does not include increases in box/RSN fees.

Comcast’s increases were more, specially with the Broadcast/RSN/Box fees.

Dish had the same number of increases, but only $5 a year, until this year at $7.

Also, fees are included with YTTV, not with these three.

The result is the same. People are unhappy with the price increases, no matter which platform they are using.

I am upset with that also, because the majority of cable channels are nothing but reruns, even channels that used to have a lot of new scripted content, USA, TNT, etc, etc.

I'd still recommend YTTV to someone wanting to leave cable/sat but still get the same channels, but it isn't as easy a sell as it used to be when people realize they have to learn a new interface.

My step father was able to get use to it, he is now 79, any new service will have learning curves, be it Traditional or Streaming.

He actually dropped it last year, when he sold his House, just uses the streaming services and has Starlink, lives in a extremely rural area, 10 Acres and a small 3 Bed/1 Bath Cabin type house.

It was a hard sell to my parents even when they were saving $70/month, and they still occassionally need help to figure out how to do something.

 

[ncted]

That is just math, if you add a $10 increase to $73, that will result in a higher percentage, then if you added that same $10 to $110, a lower percentage.

"just math" as an excuse doesn't really hold water with me. Math is math.

Either way, it doesn't change the perception that vMVPDs have just become a new version of the same old cable/sat product, which come along with the associated regular price increases which far exceed the inflation rate. If they cannot differentiate themselves on price alone, they need to differentiate themselves in other significant ways or risk succumbing to the same problems that are killing the thing that they are trying to replace.

 

[Radioguy41]

People moved from their $100+ per month cable/sat package to cheap vMVPDs and then complained about the lack of channels that the vMVPDs then added and then those people now complain about the increased costs...Round and round it goes.

Streamers are making the same mistake the cable companies made, paying way too much attention to the whinning of niche viewers and so the bloat takes hold and once born never dies. Trying to be all things to all people never works, pick a market segment, cull the bloat accordingly, and keep the costs reasonable. As currently constituted YTTV and my Dish package are a wash; $82.99 vs $85.96. For the $3 more I'll take the convenience and the DVR, thank you very much.

 

[b4pjoe]

"just math" as an excuse doesn't really hold water with me. Math is math.

Either way, it doesn't change the perception that vMVPDs have just become a new version of the same old cable/sat product, which come along with the associated regular price increases which far exceed the inflation rate. If they cannot differentiate themselves on price alone, they need to differentiate themselves in other significant ways or risk succumbing to the same problems that are killing the thing that they are trying to replace.

So if you had a product that you were paying $73 per month for and another product that you were paying $150 per month for you would be more upset if the $73 per month product went up 13.7% than if the $150 product went up 10% because the percentage of the price hike was smaller on the $150 product? Even though the $73 per month went up $10 and the $150 per month product went up $15? In this scenario the price difference between the two products actually increased instead of your claim that the price difference between the two is actually shrinking.

 

[b4pjoe]

Streamers are making the same mistake the cable companies made, paying way too much attention to the whinning of niche viewers and so the bloat takes hold and once born never dies. Trying to be all things to all people never works, pick a market segment, cull the bloat accordingly, and keep the costs reasonable. As currently constituted YTTV and my Dish package are a wash; $82.99 vs $85.96. For the $3 more I'll take the convenience and the DVR, thank you very much.

Ummmm...YTTV also has a DVR and the "convenience" is a state of each individuals mind. I have no idea what you are getting for $85.96 per month on Dish to compare to YTTV. But I do agree that most every package of every provider could use a cleanup of the worthless garbage channels.

 

[Bruce]

As currently constituted YTTV and my Dish package are a wash; $82.99 vs $85.96. For the $3 more I'll take the convenience and the DVR, thank you very much.

What package and how many boxes do you have that makes it only $85.96?

The new customer pricing for just America's Top 120 and the Hopper 3 is $101.99.

 

[navychop]

Grandfathered?

 

[Mr Tony]

Flex Pack is 67.99 and if I recall he has the Wally receiver that you can add a hard drive for free (after the one time $40 fee)