How many FTA folks?
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Define genuine FTA. Are you distinguishing between just those who do this with unmodified equipment and those who are "fta" hackers? Or do you have another meaning? i.e. Are you a genuine FTA person if you use a cam embedded receiver (or maybe DCII analog) to subscribe to services, but also can receive FTA? Are we talking only dvb, or is this analog too? How about those who use subscription boxes to either watch free channels that don't encrypt after the subscription services (viewable with FTA boxes, but cheaper entry point for those who want the FTA content)? How about those who use 4DTV receivers to get free fixed key content or manipulate maps to do the same? etc..etc..etc.. I don't think there would be a way to determine who is a FTA viewer without interviewing every person who has a satellite dish installed on their property (or access one via slingbox?) to determine their equipment and viewing habits (and then you'd miss those who have dishes installed inside their homes). Since satellite vendors have no idea what you are watching, they have no idea whether those they sell equipment to are true FTA viewers or not, so they can't even begin to guess either.
very good point lumpkin
Its like when they post the C-Band numbers and it looks so bad but they don't take into consideration
-people who have 4DTV and sub to just digital channels
-people who have an analog box and dont sub to anything. They get the wild feeds
There really is no way to get an accurate amount.
Its like when they post the C-Band numbers and it looks so bad but they don't take into consideration
-people who have 4DTV and sub to just digital channels
-people who have an analog box and dont sub to anything. They get the wild feeds
There really is no way to get an accurate amount.
This is an interesting and some would say important question for the FTA crowd and worth thinking about for a bit. There must be some providers out there asking "If I lease a channel, how can I calculate my audience and potential revenue?" or "Currently we are broadcasting our feed in the clear, but as soon as the audience trapping the feed goes above xxxx then we encrypt" or even "How much will my sales of Coolsat drop off if the providers find an ECM that baffles the pirates?"
Isaac Asimov tackled a similar question in his book "Extraterrestrial Civilizations". How many civilizations are there out there - equally impossible to know but and interesting puzzle. He starts out with one impossibly high number, and then as each chapter progresses he explains why that number is not reasonable and reduces it by a reasonable amount given what was known at the time. The number he ends up with is probably still not reasonable but is at least a straw man that stands to be knocked over in the light of later information.
Sales of boxes are unreliable for a number of reasons, some break and are not replaced, some are never used even though they might be (say fear of prosecution even though they are not illegal), no clear LOS, ignorant landlord etc.
Looking at this question slightly differently, if I were to hazard a guess at a quarter million boxes out there in N. America, are there brave souls who would have more confidence dividing that pie up into C/Ku/Ka, what proportion are valid fta/pirate, what proportion have a motor/fixed dish?
Isaac Asimov tackled a similar question in his book "Extraterrestrial Civilizations". How many civilizations are there out there - equally impossible to know but and interesting puzzle. He starts out with one impossibly high number, and then as each chapter progresses he explains why that number is not reasonable and reduces it by a reasonable amount given what was known at the time. The number he ends up with is probably still not reasonable but is at least a straw man that stands to be knocked over in the light of later information.
Sales of boxes are unreliable for a number of reasons, some break and are not replaced, some are never used even though they might be (say fear of prosecution even though they are not illegal), no clear LOS, ignorant landlord etc.
Looking at this question slightly differently, if I were to hazard a guess at a quarter million boxes out there in N. America, are there brave souls who would have more confidence dividing that pie up into C/Ku/Ka, what proportion are valid fta/pirate, what proportion have a motor/fixed dish?
arguable
Well, you can make arguments for all the fringe user who are technically FTA:
- those watching NASA/Angel on a used Dish box,
- Analog C-band,
- digital on previously subscribed DCII receivers (including StarChoice),
- and many more.
But if you subscribe to Dish, then your NASA/Angel doesn't count.
Neither do your freebie DCII channels, if you subscribe .
I suspect that all of the above don't amount to a whole lot.
But to point a finger at a pretty large segment of real FTA users, look at the Christian market for Glorystar.
I'll bet the bulk of those users (95%, maybe?) just watch the free programming provided on their two birds.
See if you can get a count on how many that might be!
Then, maybe everybody who's ever bought a Traxis FTA receiver.
I think this applies to all models, but at least the 3500 seems to be unsupported by hackers.
Sales figures on most of the HiDef FTA receivers (excepting the QualiTV) can be ignored.
You've got to think 80..95% * of those sales are driven by hackers.
Probably 95% of Viewsat FTA receivers * can be ignored.
Once you get to the mainstream DVB FTA receivers, the waters get pretty muddy.
The market is driven by hack sales*, so over 50% have to be discarded.
Possibly 70% * might be out there with no intention of real FTA use.
If that number seems high, just consider how big overall FTA receiver sales were before the appearance of the first hacked unit.
Since then, the market has exploded, and FTAers are not to thank*.
edit:
Colbec raises a good point concerning motors.
I'll bet the bulk of those who've bought motors are legit FTA-watchers, regardless whether they're hackers or not.
So, maybe overall motor sales for North America might be some indication! 85 ... 95% of buyers?
Oh, and I've got two motors, if anyone asks. One live and one dead.
* Consider the hack-features built into and advertized by all the receivers, if you doubt this claim.
Well, that's my opinion. What's yours?
Well, you can make arguments for all the fringe user who are technically FTA:
- those watching NASA/Angel on a used Dish box,
- Analog C-band,
- digital on previously subscribed DCII receivers (including StarChoice),
- and many more.
But if you subscribe to Dish, then your NASA/Angel doesn't count.
Neither do your freebie DCII channels, if you subscribe .
I suspect that all of the above don't amount to a whole lot.
But to point a finger at a pretty large segment of real FTA users, look at the Christian market for Glorystar.
I'll bet the bulk of those users (95%, maybe?) just watch the free programming provided on their two birds.
See if you can get a count on how many that might be!
Then, maybe everybody who's ever bought a Traxis FTA receiver.
I think this applies to all models, but at least the 3500 seems to be unsupported by hackers.
Sales figures on most of the HiDef FTA receivers (excepting the QualiTV) can be ignored.
You've got to think 80..95% * of those sales are driven by hackers.
Probably 95% of Viewsat FTA receivers * can be ignored.
Once you get to the mainstream DVB FTA receivers, the waters get pretty muddy.
The market is driven by hack sales*, so over 50% have to be discarded.
Possibly 70% * might be out there with no intention of real FTA use.
If that number seems high, just consider how big overall FTA receiver sales were before the appearance of the first hacked unit.
Since then, the market has exploded, and FTAers are not to thank*.
edit:
Colbec raises a good point concerning motors.
I'll bet the bulk of those who've bought motors are legit FTA-watchers, regardless whether they're hackers or not.
So, maybe overall motor sales for North America might be some indication! 85 ... 95% of buyers?
Oh, and I've got two motors, if anyone asks.
One live and one dead.* Consider the hack-features built into and advertized by all the receivers, if you doubt this claim.
Well, that's my opinion. What's yours?
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Lots of interesting replies!
I would define "legitimate" FTA as those searching for interesting free content not generally carried by mainstream cable TV, etc., or who enjoy playing with satellite technology itself.
The "count the motors" idea sounds plausible. Although someone with one of those nifty T90 dishes and a ton of LNBs would probably count as a motorized setup for FTA purposes.
Maybe count linear LNBs and divide by 50?
I would define "legitimate" FTA as those searching for interesting free content not generally carried by mainstream cable TV, etc., or who enjoy playing with satellite technology itself.
The "count the motors" idea sounds plausible. Although someone with one of those nifty T90 dishes and a ton of LNBs would probably count as a motorized setup for FTA purposes.
Maybe count linear LNBs and divide by 50?
Iceberg's the reason we have to divide by such a high amount (Iceberg how many active (pointing at something) LNB's do you have? My guess is around 20)
(Iceberg how many active (pointing at something) LNB's do you have? My guess is around 20)
that's a pretty good question.. if networks knew they could get X million people watching their shows & commercials, would they consider offering more fta content? (I would venture to guess most don't have a DVR so they would be watching live/not skipping commercials)
I'm supprised more home shopping networks aren't on FTA.. there are a number of them that are in different languages.. but you would think they would all be up there?
I'm supprised more home shopping networks aren't on FTA.. there are a number of them that are in different languages.. but you would think they would all be up there?
Iceberg's the reason we have to divide by such a high amount
lets see
-motorized with standard, universal and dbs set up
-fixed dishes at 74,91,119,123,129
-T90 with LNB's on 72,79,83,87,89,93,97,101,107,110
-2 C-Band dishes
so 17 fixed LNB's and a motorized
Also have to count the ethnic programming crowd, most of whom have a fixed dish on 97w Plenty of those popping up around New Orleans...
Globecast SUBSCRIBERS wouldn't count, just like E* subscribers watching NASA and Angel.
Plenty of those popping up around New Orleans...Globecast SUBSCRIBERS wouldn't count, just like E* subscribers watching NASA and Angel.
Hi:
I don't want to distress anyone but, from what I have observed in my 'area of the woods' about one percent of those who purchase FTA receivers actually use them only to receive legitimate FTA signals. Dish Network is very popular in Canada.
cheers
Bryce
I don't want to distress anyone but, from what I have observed in my 'area of the woods' about one percent of those who purchase FTA receivers actually use them only to receive legitimate FTA signals. Dish Network is very popular in Canada.
cheers
Bryce
wshillington: It could be that your area is unusual. My area seems to be devoid of FTA people except for myself. Most people I know have a paid subscription since they are happy to get a reliable service and instantly complain if the service goes bad so that someone else will come and fix it. Many times it comes as part of a package so they perceive that they are getting a bargain. If there was a lot of piracy I am sure we would see a lot more prosecutions in the papers. Unless you exist in a very closed community it is hard to keep that kind of behaviour under wraps.
ethnic programming
I live outside Los Angeles, and we have rich and diverse cultural mix.
In some areas, one house out of 10 will be sporting a 30" dish.
There is lots of Thai and Chinese programming available FTA!
Many of our Vietnamese immigrants also speak Chinese, too.
Those neighborhoods are full of FTA dishes.
With so much middle eastern programming, I'm sure that attracts lots of watchers, too.
Quite a few FTA dishes, there.
But around here, I'm afraid much of the Spanish-language programming may go to waste.
We have so many analog UHF TV stations (about 9 ch) supporting the Hispanic communities, I doubt they bother with FTA.
Once you get out of range of the LA transmitters, I'll bet FTA is -much- more popular !
Ya know, I was surprised to find so little French FTA.
It they had more, that might attract some Canadian viewers.
Oh, very good point. - :upAlso have to count the ethnic programming crowd, most of whom have a fixed dish on 97w
I live outside Los Angeles, and we have rich and diverse cultural mix.
In some areas, one house out of 10 will be sporting a 30" dish.
There is lots of Thai and Chinese programming available FTA!
Many of our Vietnamese immigrants also speak Chinese, too.
Those neighborhoods are full of FTA dishes.
With so much middle eastern programming, I'm sure that attracts lots of watchers, too.
Quite a few FTA dishes, there.
But around here, I'm afraid much of the Spanish-language programming may go to waste.
We have so many analog UHF TV stations (about 9 ch) supporting the Hispanic communities, I doubt they bother with FTA.
Once you get out of range of the LA transmitters, I'll bet FTA is -much- more popular !
Ya know, I was surprised to find so little French FTA.
It they had more, that might attract some Canadian viewers.
I think the Ham comparison maybe a good one... I have about 25 ham radios... I have 3 digital sat. rcvrs, 1 old C-band analog will have 6 lnbs and 3 dishes. Of course, not all are up and working right now.
Add to that an E* on one motorhome - not hooked up and not FTA.
So if you count equipment pieces, for me, WOW, what do you get = my wife and me = 2 people. But my wife just watches so does she count? And do my neighbors and grandkids count when they come over to watch? I am guessing the market is getting better every day.
Add to that an E* on one motorhome - not hooked up and not FTA.
So if you count equipment pieces, for me, WOW, what do you get = my wife and me = 2 people. But my wife just watches so does she count? And do my neighbors and grandkids count when they come over to watch? I am guessing the market is getting better every day.
Even in my modest way, I have 4 FTA receivers, 2 motorized dishes and a Dish500 with 2 dish boxes. Can't get a count by equipment sales, that's for sure !
Maybe I am in Anole's 15%....
But, I do not accept the premise that the HD boxes are all used by hackers. Maybe for those only with KU. But, with my big dish, the HD box is great for C band HD feeds. And, there are KU HD feeds too.
That is the main reason I bought the box and I would like to think there are a lot of honest people out there.
Since I have Directv (small dish) for subsciption programming and an OTA antenna, I might not qualify as a true FTA'er under some of the definitions above.
But, when I am watching an RTN or a backhaul or a CBS out of market NFL feed on the big dish, I still feel like one!
I would not include hackers in the definition. I would define them as thieves of programming they should pay for.
But, I do not accept the premise that the HD boxes are all used by hackers. Maybe for those only with KU. But, with my big dish, the HD box is great for C band HD feeds. And, there are KU HD feeds too.
That is the main reason I bought the box and I would like to think there are a lot of honest people out there.
Since I have Directv (small dish) for subsciption programming and an OTA antenna, I might not qualify as a true FTA'er under some of the definitions above.
But, when I am watching an RTN or a backhaul or a CBS out of market NFL feed on the big dish, I still feel like one!
I would not include hackers in the definition. I would define them as thieves of programming they should pay for.
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