I still believe that Charlie doesn't *really* want to build his own 5G network from scratch. He's a poker player and this is his last and greatest bluff. It looks like the T-Mo/Sprint deal can't happen without him and he knows it, so he's just going to keep pushing for terms so favorable that T-Mo won't be able to accept them (but, if they did, hey, he got a dream deal to get him started in the wireless business). Charlie's plan is that once he torpedoes the deal (of which he had always been the most vocal opponent), T-Mo and Verizon (and maybe even AT&T) will come to him to buy his spectrum licenses before the FCC clocks runs out on him for his initial 5G nationwide buildout on Mar. 7, 2020.
But that's a risky plan too, isn't it? Let's say the T-Mo/Sprint deal is officially called off by Labor Day. Sprint will go into triage mode to survive. Might they not decide to sell off some or all of their valuable 2.5 GHz spectrum that was to be used for 5G in metro areas across the country? That spectrum hits the sweet spot between fast speeds and decent-sized coverage areas and it's what T-Mo was hoping would be their main 5G play in cities, with super-fast short-range mm-wave spectrum only serving scattered super-high traffic urban blocks (shopping/dining strips), stadiums, etc. The message drifting out of Sprint is that if the deal falls through, they may choose to become more of a regional, rather than truly national player, or perhaps otherwise pull back their network ambitions, like maybe foregoing 5G and simply becoming a budget 4G/3G-only carrier. They'll still have generous free roaming on the T-Mo network for a few years if the deal falls through. Wouldn't surprise me to see Sprint sell T-Mo a lot of that 2.5 GHz spectrum for T-Mo to build out. Sprint can't afford the build-out on their own.
So if T-Mo, and possibly the big 2, fulfill most of their additional spectrum needs from surplus that Sprint sells off, AND they know that C-band spectrum will be opened up and auctioned off by the FCC soon for 5G use, AND that DISH may simply forfeit all of their spectrum next March, getting nothing in return for it when the FCC yanks it away, that doesn't put DISH in a great bargaining position to get a lot of money by trying to sell their licenses to T-Mo, Verizon or AT&T. It'll be a buyers' market. If I'm any of those three, I hold back on showing any kind of interest to DISH until it gets awful close to Mar. 7, to see if it looks like DISH's little IoT network is going to fulfill the letter of the law in terms of their "nationwide" 5G buildout commitment. If it looks like it won't, then I make a lowball offer.
