There is no way it goes back down to $30, the $80 is more believable.
NO WAY is too strong... unlikely maybe....
I still think things are coming way down, back to $50 a barrel.... The LAST time a price spike caused people to dramatically curtail their usage, prices crashed in the early 80's.
There is nothing preventing a similar situation now. The terrorism surcharge (that phantom $40 value where people think that supply will be dramatically constrained any day now) is going away when Bush leaves. All those priuses replacing SUVs will add up to real savings (and people are lined up to get them, so there will be even more collapse in demand as supply catches up to pent up demand there....)
With the higher prices wiping out China and India's advantages, there is a real drag on their growth. The US, (gasp) is reclaiming lost jobs, because it is cheaper to produce and use things here, then to export raw materials overseas, build them there, and ship them back.
Oh, and the dollar is starting to charge back as the world teeters towards worldwide recession, as it usually does, as all those big money folks look for a safe haven...
Artificial forces had increased prices, and now the momentum will chase the speculators that had bid up prices. Add it all up, and that SUV might not be so expensive in a year or two (and since their resale value has fallen by 50% over the last three years - they are a real bargain now as most people want nothing to do with them....... now. If oil hits $50 again, I think they come roaring back in popularity.....
The ones about to get creamed are the alternative energy folks that NEED oil to be $80 a barrel or higher to compete..... Silver lining is that the ethanol subsidies go away and food prices come down to boot....